ArsenalNewcastle

Arsenal v Newcastle result

Full-time · Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle

Premier League · · Emirates Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Arsenal · Newcastle · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle — Arsenal won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 544 of 845 times (64.4%), against an average rating of 67.7%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said little between the sides: Arsenal 0.64, Newcastle 0.87 in expected goals (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Arsenal have conceded 27 goals, the fewest of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games).

Arsenal beat Newcastle 1–0 at Emirates Stadium in the Premier League on Saturday 25 April.

The goals

Arsenal led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Arsenal: Eberechi Eze (9’, assisted by Kai Havertz).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Eberechi Eze’s goal on 9 minutes.

Discipline

S. Barrott showed four yellow cards — against 3.3 yellows a game across the last 19 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Arsenal: Gabriel Martinelli (71’) and Declan Rice (86’); Newcastle: D. Burn (57’) and Nicholas Pope (74’).

What it changes

Arsenal stay first after this result (34 league matches played). Arsenal have scored 71 goals, the second-most of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games).

Newcastle stay 14th after this result (34 league matches played). Newcastle have scored 53 goals, the ninth-most of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 38 games). Newcastle have conceded 55 goals, the sixth-most of the 20 clubs.

Newcastle have lost their last five matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Piero Hincapié (Arsenal) 7.2, Sven Botman (Newcastle) 6.5 and Martín Zubimendi (Arsenal) 6.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Arsenal next host Hull City on 7 November 2026.

Newcastle next travel to Fulham on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Arsenal: Arsenal v Hull City, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Newcastle: Fulham v Newcastle, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle · Premier League
  • Venue: Emirates Stadium · London
  • Referee: S. Barrott
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Arsenal 3 · draws 0 · Newcastle 3 · 2.33 goals/game
  • Recent form: Arsenal 1W 1D 3L · Newcastle 1W 0D 4L

Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 1.25
Goals
against 1 / 2.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
7.13 / 4
Corners
against 4.13 / 5.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.13 / 4.13
Shots on target
against 3.13 / 5.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
0.88 / 2.5
Cards
against 1.38 / 2.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
3.32 yellows
Referee · S. Barrott
18.21 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 19 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 19 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 19 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameArsenal for / againstLineNewcastle for / against
Goals scored
1 for · 1 against n 8
2.5standard
1.25 for · 2.25 against n 8
Corners won
7.13 for · 4.13 against n 8
9.5standard
4 for · 5.13 against n 8
Shots
15.75 for · 9.75 against n 8
19.5standard
11.13 for · 15.5 against n 8
Shots on target
5.13 for · 3.13 against n 8
8.5standard
4.13 for · 5.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
9.88 for · 10.5 against n 8
21.5standard
11.88 for · 13.38 against n 8
Cards shown
0.88 for · 1.38 against n 8
3.5standard
2.5 for · 2.13 against n 8

Referee: S. Barrott — 3.32 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 18.21 fouls over 19 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Arsenal

Arsenal Goalkeeper

Arsenal — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
David Raya44903960 min811.8 /90290.7 /9000 /90
Kepa Arrizabalaga990807 min212.3 /90101.1 /9000 /90
Robert Sánchez19090 min11 /9011 /9000 /90
Arsenal — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 19 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
David Raya n 890
2.36/2
Kepa Arrizabalaga n 889.6
2.66/4

Arsenal Defensive

Arsenal — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Gabriel Magalhães42813415 min501.3 /90240.6 /90481.3 /902045.4 /90280.7 /9050.1 /90
J. Timber41763129 min832.4 /90290.8 /9060.2 /901805.2 /90451.3 /9060.2 /90
William Saliba40853409 min501.3 /90230.6 /90100.3 /901644.3 /90350.9 /9020.1 /90
Piero Hincapié30742224 min582.3 /90261.1 /90120.5 /901275.1 /90190.8 /9030.1 /90
Riccardo Calafiori28661849 min401.9 /90211 /9030.1 /901185.7 /90311.5 /9070.3 /90
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Arsenal — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 19 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Martín Zubimendi n 882.8
0.85/1
0.74/1
S. Tonali
David Raya n 890
00/0
0.43/0
—
Declan Rice n 890
1.15/3
00/0
S. Tonali
Viktor Gyökeres n 868.5
15/1
1.56/3
—
Gabriel Magalhães n 887.8
0.95/2
0.94/2
M. Thiaw
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Arsenal — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 19 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Martín Zubimendi n 882.8
2.27/4
Declan Rice n 890
1.86/5
Viktor Gyökeres n 868.5
0.21/0
Gabriel Magalhães n 887.8
1.78/3
J. Timber n 871.6
27/3
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Arsenal Attacking

Arsenal — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Viktor Gyökeres44672950 min180.5 /9020.1 /90601.8 /90321 /90270.8 /90100.3 /90
Bukayo Saka40712832 min90.3 /9050.2 /90611.9 /90431.4 /90762.4 /90591.9 /90
Leandro Trossard38622373 min60.2 /9070.3 /90421.6 /90170.6 /90421.6 /90271 /90
Gabriel Martinelli33571875 min100.5 /9050.2 /90412 /90211 /90291.4 /90391.9 /90
Noni Madueke30581737 min60.3 /9030.2 /90291.5 /90170.9 /90331.7 /90462.4 /90
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Arsenal — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 19 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Martín Zubimendi n 882.8
0.32/0
0.11/0
David Raya n 890
00/0
00/0
Declan Rice n 890
0.42/1
0.42/1
Viktor Gyökeres n 868.5
1.36/1
0.85/0
Gabriel Magalhães n 887.8
0.42/1
00/0
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Arsenal — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 19 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Martín Zubimendi n 882.8
00/0
00/0
David Raya n 890
00/0
00/0
Declan Rice n 890
0.11/0
00/0
Viktor Gyökeres n 868.5
0.53/0
00/0
Gabriel Magalhães n 887.8
00/0
00/0
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Newcastle

Newcastle Goalkeeper

Newcastle — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
N. Pope31902777 min993.2 /90401.3 /9010 /90
A. Ramsdale20901807 min582.9 /90331.6 /9010 /90
J. Trafford19090 min44 /9011 /9000 /90
Newcastle — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 19 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
N. Pope n 890
3.46/5
A. Ramsdale n 890
3.46/6

Newcastle Defensive

Newcastle — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Thiaw46873979 min541.2 /90481.1 /90461 /902215 /90360.8 /9090.2 /90
Lewis Hall37762828 min742.4 /90381.2 /90190.6 /902136.8 /90180.6 /9030.1 /90
D. Burn36832986 min511.5 /90300.9 /90220.7 /901905.7 /90491.5 /90110.3 /90
K. Trippier32742381 min491.9 /90150.6 /9030.1 /901043.9 /90291.1 /9050.2 /90
S. Botman27802172 min190.8 /90190.8 /90231 /901164.8 /90120.5 /9020.1 /90
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Newcastle — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 19 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
H. Barnes n 873.6
0.95/1
1.57/3
—
M. Thiaw n 883.3
1.46/3
0.43/0
Gabriel Magalhães
S. Tonali n 884.9
1.37/2
1.25/3
Declan Rice
A. Gordon n 867.9
0.21/0
2.77/4
—
N. Woltemade n 864.5
1.25/1
14/2
—
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Newcastle — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 19 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
H. Barnes n 873.6
0.64/0
M. Thiaw n 883.3
1.25/3
S. Tonali n 884.9
1.36/4
A. Gordon n 867.9
0.83/1
N. Woltemade n 864.5
1.95/4
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Newcastle Attacking

Newcastle — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
H. Barnes49613002 min120.4 /9050.1 /90672 /90391.2 /90371.1 /90200.6 /90
A. Gordon41682769 min160.5 /9040.1 /90612 /90371.2 /90441.4 /90521.7 /90
N. Woltemade41642619 min100.3 /9030.1 /90341.2 /90180.6 /90281 /90210.7 /90
A. Elanga36541953 min20.1 /9010 /90211 /90110.5 /90261.2 /90211 /90
Y. Wissa1740682 min30.4 /9010.1 /90172.2 /9081.1 /9030.4 /9020.3 /90
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Newcastle — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 19 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
H. Barnes n 873.6
1.76/4
0.84/1
M. Thiaw n 883.3
0.54/0
0.32/0
S. Tonali n 884.9
0.96/1
0.43/0
A. Gordon n 867.9
1.85/3
1.24/2
N. Woltemade n 864.5
0.73/1
0.31/1
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Newcastle — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Newcastle before kick-off, to 19 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
H. Barnes n 873.6
0.32/0
0.21/0
M. Thiaw n 883.3
00/0
00/0
S. Tonali n 884.9
0.11/0
0.32/0
A. Gordon n 867.9
0.53/0
00/0
N. Woltemade n 864.5
00/0
0.21/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
ArsenalNewcastle
45%Possession55%
0.49Expected goals (xG)1.00
11Shots13
4Shots on target3
2Shots off target5
5Blocked shots5
6Shots inside the box6
7Corners2
2Offsides1
13Fouls10
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
3Saves3
400Passes486
81%Pass accuracy85%

Arsenal Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
David Raya9000000006.9
Ben White9000000007.2
William Saliba9000000107
Gabriel Magalhães9000001106.9
Piero Hincapié9000001507.9
Martin Ødegaard9000113207.7
Declan Rice90000000Y6.7
Martín Zubimendi8100001507.2
Noni Madueke8100111006.3
Eberechi Eze5310310007.3
K. Havertz3401001006.3
Viktor Gyökeres sub5600001006.3
Gabriel Martinelli sub37001111Y6.6
Myles Lewis-Skelly sub900000006.9
Bukayo Saka sub900001006.5

Newcastle Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
N. Pope90000000Y7.2
L. Miley9000000106.7
M. Thiaw9000000207
S. Botman9000000207.5
D. Burn90002102Y6.9
S. Tonali9000111107
J. Ramsey9000102306.7
J. Willock8600211006.6
Bruno Guimarães7500102207.2
J. Murphy6600000106.2
W. Osula6600002006.5
Y. Wissa sub2400100005.9
H. Barnes sub2400001006.9
N. Woltemade sub1500001006.6
A. Elanga sub1200000006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Arsenal v Newcastle — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
ArsenalLWLDL
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
NewcastleWLLLL
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 1.2 scored / 2.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Arsenal 3 · 0 draws · Newcastle 3 · 2.33 goals/game
  • 2025-09-28 Newcastle 1–2 Arsenal
  • 2025-05-18 Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle
  • 2025-02-05 Newcastle 2–0 Arsenal
  • 2025-01-07 Arsenal 0–2 Newcastle
  • 2024-11-02 Newcastle 1–0 Arsenal
  • 2024-02-24 Arsenal 4–1 Newcastle
League standing · 2025/26
Arsenal#1 pos85 pts38 pl+44 GD
Newcastle#12 pos49 pts38 pl-2 GD
Goals per game
Arsenal scored1.87
Newcastle scored1.39
Arsenal conceded0.71
Newcastle conceded1.45

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Arsenal 0.64 xG from 11 shots, Newcastle 0.87 from 13. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Yoane Wissa 79' · 0.47 xGSven Botman 29' · 0.12 xGMartín Zubimendi 72' · 0.12 xGGabriel Martinelli 69' · 0.11 xGBukayo Saka 80' · 0.09 xGViktor Gyokeres 83' · 0.08 xGGabriel Martinelli 81' · 0.08 xGEberechi Eze 48' · 0.06 xGBruno Guimarães 3' · 0.05 xGJacob Ramsey 23' · 0.04 xGDan Burn 82' · 0.04 xGJoe Willock 30' · 0.03 xGDan Burn 15' · 0.03 xGJoe Willock 17' · 0.03 xGDan Burn 37' · 0.02 xGMartin Odegaard 86' · 0.02 xGEberechi Eze 7' · 0.02 xGNoni Madueke 57' · 0.02 xGSandro Tonali 95' · 0.02 xGNoni Madueke 22' · 0.02 xGSandro Tonali 41' · 0.01 xGSandro Tonali 29' · 0.01 xGSandro Tonali 64' · 0.01 xGEberechi Eze 8' · 0.02 xG · goal
Arsenal (attacking right)Newcastle (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Arsenal1110.64
Newcastle1300.87

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Arsenal 0.06, Newcastle 0.34. At full time, xG was level: Arsenal 0.64, Newcastle 0.87. The widest gap was 0.45 xG to Newcastle, in the 79th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
0.90.400′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Arsenal 8 min
Arsenal 0.64 xGNewcastle 0.87 xGdots = goals · 24 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Arsenal v Newcastle?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Arsenal v Newcastle was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Newcastle?
In their last 6 meetings, Arsenal won 3, Newcastle won 3 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Arsenal and Newcastle?
Recent form — Arsenal 1W 1D 3L; Newcastle 1W 0D 4L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions todayTomorrowBTTS boardOver 2.5 boardUnder 2.5 boardOver 1.5 boardHome win boardAway win boardDouble chance board
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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