Leeds v Arsenal prediction

Premier League · Sat, 08 May 2027 15:00 BST · Elland Road

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Leeds · Arsenal · Head-to-head

TACTIX’s free model pick for Leeds v Arsenal, Premier League on Sat, 08 May 2027 15:00 BST posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Leeds host Arsenal in the Premier League on Saturday 8 May (kick-off 15:00 UK).

The key numbers

Arsenal have conceded five goals, the fewest of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games).

Arsenal have scored in eight consecutive matches in all competitions. Leeds are winless in their last five matches in all competitions. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last eight matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Five of Leeds’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (33%). Both teams scored in eight of Leeds’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Leeds have three wins, three draws and no defeats in their last 6 home matches in all competitions — 2.00 points per game, scoring 1.67 and conceding 0.67. Leeds have scored nine goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Leeds have conceded eight goals, the third-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Eight of Arsenal’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in six of Arsenal’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). Away from home, Arsenal have seven wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 10 away matches in all competitions — 2.30 points per game, scoring 1.50 and conceding 0.90. Arsenal have scored 14 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games).

Leeds (12th) and Arsenal (first) are 13 points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Arsenal the stronger side, 320 rating points above Leeds (Arsenal 1931, Leeds 1611, after at least 161 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Arsenal are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Leeds, every meeting checked. The most recent meeting, on 10 October 2026, finished Arsenal 2–1 Leeds.

Team news

Predicted Leeds XI (3-4-2-1): J. Trafford, T. Muharemović, J. Justin, N. Elvedi, E. Ampadu, J. Bogle, G. Gudmundsson, A. Tanaka, A. Stach, H. Wilson, D. Calvert-Lewin — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, James Justin (4.5 per match over 11 appearances, two goals) and Tarik Muharemović (4.0 per match over 11 appearances, one goal and two assists) have been Leeds’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Leeds (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), James Justin averages 3.0 tackles per 90 over 973 minutes, with a tackle in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Tarik Muharemović averages 0.8 tackles per 90 over 1610 minutes, with a tackle in six of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Arsenal XI (4-2-3-1): D. Raya, G. Magalhães, E. Konsa, B. White, J. Timber, D. Rice, M. Ødegaard, N. Madueke, E. Eze, M. Merino, V. Gyökeres — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Bukayo Saka (4.7 per match over 11 appearances, four goals and one assist) and Declan Rice (4.2 per match over 14 appearances, one goal and five assists) have been Arsenal’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Arsenal (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Bukayo Saka averages 1.7 key passes per 90 over 1364 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Declan Rice averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 1803 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sat, 08 May 2027 15:00 BST · Premier League · Elland Road
Head-to-head (last 6): Leeds 0 · draws 0 · Arsenal 6 · 3.5 goals/game
Recent form: Leeds 0W 3D 2L · Arsenal 3W 2D 0L

Leeds v Arsenal (Premier League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 1.75

Goals

against 1.63 / 0.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.38 / 5.43

Corners

against 3.88 / 4.14 · 0 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

4.25 / 4.57

Shots on target

against 5 / 3 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

2 / 1.86

Cards

against 1.88 / 2 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 4 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 4 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Leeds for / against	Line	Arsenal for / against
Goals scored	1.25 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.75 for · 0.63 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.38 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.43 for · 4.14 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	12.5 for · 13.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	13.43 for · 12.14 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	4.25 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.57 for · 3 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	13.63 for · 10.38 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10 for · 14.86 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.86 for · 2 against n 7 Last 5

Leeds

Leeds Goalkeeper

Leeds — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Trafford	10	90900 min	353.5 /90	50.5 /90	00 /90
M. Zetterer	1	9090 min	22 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Leeds — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 4 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Trafford n 8	90	3.8 8/7

Leeds Defensive

Leeds — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
T. Muharemović	11	90990 min	90.8 /90	151.4 /90	80.7 /90	655.9 /90	70.6 /90	10.1 /90
J. Justin	11	88973 min	323 /90	131.2 /90	50.5 /90	696.4 /90	90.8 /90	10.1 /90
N. Elvedi	8	85682 min	81.1 /90	81.1 /90	50.7 /90	304 /90	30.4 /90	10.1 /90
J. Bijol	5	69344 min	61.6 /90	71.8 /90	30.8 /90	246.3 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90
J. Rodon	3	71214 min	10.4 /90	31.3 /90	10.4 /90	93.8 /90	41.7 /90	00 /90
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Leeds — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 4 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
E. Ampadu n 8	90	2.1 6/5	0.9 6/1	—
T. Muharemović n 8	90	0.5 3/1	0.9 4/3	—
J. Justin n 8	87.9	0.8 4/2	1.2 7/2	—
A. Stach n 8	65.1	2.1 5/4	0.9 3/2	—
J. Trafford n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
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Leeds — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 4 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
E. Ampadu n 8	90	2.3 8/6
T. Muharemović n 8	90	0.5 4/0
J. Justin n 8	87.9	2.9 8/7
A. Stach n 8	65.1	1.9 5/5
Dominic Calvert-Lewin n 8	77.5	0.1 1/0
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Leeds Attacking

Leeds — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	10	80800 min	40.5 /90	10.1 /90	141.6 /90	91 /90	40.5 /90	50.6 /90
N. Okafor	10	56563 min	10.2 /90	10.2 /90	50.8 /90	10.2 /90	61 /90	172.7 /90
H. Wilson	9	48428 min	00 /90	10.2 /90	20.4 /90	00 /90	122.5 /90	20.4 /90
L. Nmecha	6	38228 min	00 /90	20.8 /90	62.4 /90	00 /90	41.6 /90	52 /90
E. Ampadu	11	90990 min	00 /90	00 /90	30.3 /90	10.1 /90	100.9 /90	20.2 /90
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Leeds — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 4 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
T. Muharemović n 8	90	0.9 4/2	0.4 2/1
E. Ampadu n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
J. Justin n 8	87.9	0.9 5/2	0.3 2/0
A. Stach n 8	65.1	1.6 6/3	0.3 2/0
J. Trafford n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Leeds — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leeds before kick-off, to 4 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
T. Muharemović n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.3 2/0
E. Ampadu n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Justin n 8	87.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
A. Stach n 8	65.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Trafford n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Arsenal

Arsenal Goalkeeper

Arsenal — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
David Raya	14	901260 min	322.3 /90	50.4 /90	10.1 /90
Kepa Arrizabalaga	1	9090 min	11 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Arsenal — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 4 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
David Raya n 8	90	2.3 6/4
Kepa Arrizabalaga n 8	89.6	1.8 5/2

Arsenal Defensive

Arsenal — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Gabriel Magalhães	15	871305 min	171.2 /90	191.3 /90	90.6 /90	634.3 /90	161.1 /90	20.1 /90
E. Konsa	12	841007 min	191.7 /90	100.9 /90	20.2 /90	585.2 /90	111 /90	20.2 /90
Riccardo Calafiori	11	77852 min	151.6 /90	60.6 /90	20.2 /90	363.8 /90	70.7 /90	10.1 /90
Ben White	10	78784 min	182.1 /90	60.7 /90	20.2 /90	434.9 /90	50.6 /90	00 /90
J. Timber	7	59414 min	81.7 /90	51.1 /90	10.2 /90	235 /90	51.1 /90	10.2 /90
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Arsenal — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 4 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Gabriel Magalhães n 8	90	1.1 6/2	0.9 6/1	—
David Raya n 8	90	0 0/0	0.5 3/1	—
Declan Rice n 8	88.8	0.8 5/1	0.5 3/1	—
Martin Ødegaard n 8	78.1	0.4 2/1	1.3 5/3	—
K. Havertz n 8	63.5	1.8 6/3	1.2 5/2	—
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Arsenal — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 4 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Gabriel Magalhães n 8	90	1.6 7/4
Declan Rice n 8	88.8	2.2 6/5
Martin Ødegaard n 8	78.1	0.6 3/1
K. Havertz n 8	63.5	0.4 2/0
E. Konsa n 8	86.5	1.7 5/3
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Arsenal Attacking

Arsenal — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
K. Havertz	13	66858 min	40.4 /90	10.1 /90	161.7 /90	90.9 /90	101 /90	30.3 /90
Viktor Gyökeres	10	48479 min	10.2 /90	30.6 /90	40.8 /90	20.4 /90	132.4 /90	00 /90
Declan Rice	14	841169 min	10.1 /90	50.4 /90	100.8 /90	20.2 /90	201.5 /90	60.5 /90
Martin Ødegaard	13	791023 min	40.4 /90	10.1 /90	141.2 /90	80.7 /90	292.6 /90	111 /90
Bruno Guimarães	12	50594 min	20.3 /90	00 /90	142.1 /90	50.8 /90	30.5 /90	71.1 /90
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Arsenal — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 4 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Gabriel Magalhães n 8	90	0.5 3/1	0.3 1/1
David Raya n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Declan Rice n 8	88.8	0.8 4/1	0.3 2/0
Martin Ødegaard n 8	78.1	0.9 3/2	0.4 2/1
K. Havertz n 8	63.5	1.9 6/4	0.7 4/0
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Arsenal — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Arsenal before kick-off, to 4 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Gabriel Magalhães n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
David Raya n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Declan Rice n 8	88.8	0.1 1/0	0.4 3/0
Martin Ødegaard n 8	78.1	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
K. Havertz n 8	63.5	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Leeds v Arsenal — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

LeedsDLDDL

Last 5: 0W 3D 2L · 0.4 scored / 1 conceded per game

ArsenalDWDWW

Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 1.6 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Leeds 0 · 0 draws · Arsenal 6 · 3.5 goals/game

2026-10-10 Arsenal 2–1 Leeds
2026-01-31 Leeds 0–4 Arsenal
2025-08-23 Arsenal 5–0 Leeds
2023-04-01 Arsenal 4–1 Leeds
2022-10-16 Leeds 0–1 Arsenal
2022-05-08 Arsenal 2–1 Leeds

League standing · 2026/27

Leeds#12 pos11 pts9 pl+1 GD

Arsenal#1 pos24 pts9 pl+9 GD

Goals per game

Leeds scored1

Arsenal scored1.56

Leeds conceded0.89

Arsenal conceded0.56

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Arsenal?: In their last 6 meetings, Leeds won 0, Arsenal won 6 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Leeds and Arsenal?: Recent form — Leeds 0W 3D 2L; Arsenal 3W 2D 0L.

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