Manchester United v Arsenal result

Full-time · Manchester United 0–1 Arsenal

Premier League · Sun, 17 Aug 2025 16:30 BST · Old Trafford

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Manchester United · Arsenal · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Manchester United 0–1 Arsenal — Arsenal won this Premier League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick

Home or Away

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.2% of 4535 landed (95% range 76–78.4%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said little between the sides: Manchester United 1.39, Arsenal 1.33 in expected goals (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Arsenal won 1–0 at Old Trafford in the Premier League on Sunday 17 August. Arsenal have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Arsenal led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Arsenal: Riccardo Calafiori (13’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Riccardo Calafiori’s goal on 13 minutes.

Discipline

S. Hooper showed five yellow cards — against 3.2 yellows a game across the last 9 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Manchester United: Patrick Dorgu (85’); Arsenal: Riccardo Calafiori (42’), David Raya (85’), Jurriën Timber (90+1’) and Myles Lewis-Skelly (90+3’).

What it changes

Manchester United are 15th after this result (one league match played).

Arsenal are sixth after this result (one league match played).

Arsenal are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, William Saliba (Arsenal) 5.2, Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) 5.1 and Matheus Cunha (Manchester United) 5.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Manchester United or Arsenal (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.2% of the time in the last 90 days (3501 of 4535).

Next up

Manchester United next travel to Como on 21 October 2026.

Arsenal next travel to Bayern München on 21 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Manchester United: Como v Manchester United, Wednesday 21 October — the preview. Next for Arsenal: Bayern München v Arsenal, Wednesday 21 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Manchester United 0–1 Arsenal · Premier League
Venue: Old Trafford · Manchester
Referee: S. Hooper
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Manchester United 0 · draws 2 · Arsenal 4 · 2.67 goals/game
Recent form: Manchester United 2W 0D 3L · Arsenal 2W 1D 2L

Manchester United 0–1 Arsenal (Premier League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.63 / 1.63

Goals

against 1.25 / 1.25 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.63 / 5.63

Corners

against 4.63 / 3.38 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

5.63 / 5.63

Shots on target

against 2.5 / 3.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.75 / 1.75

Cards

against 2.63 / 1.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

3.22 yellows

Referee · S. Hooper

1.33 home / 1.89 away

over 9 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 May 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 May 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Manchester United for / against	Line	Arsenal for / against
Goals scored	1.63 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.63 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.63 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.63 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	16.13 for · 8.63 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	16 for · 10.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5.63 for · 2.5 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	5.63 for · 3.5 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	9.5 for · 13.75 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	8.88 for · 10.88 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.75 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.75 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: S. Hooper — 3.22 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 20.44 fouls over 9 matches (1.33 to the home side, 1.89 to the away side).

Home 1.33Away 1.89

Manchester United

Manchester United — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
M. Ugarte n 8	58.4	1.7 5/3	1.5 4/3	—
P. Dorgu n 8	76	1.6 6/4	2.8 7/6	—
Bruno Fernandes n 8	92.6	1.5 5/4	1.6 7/3	—
A. Heaven n 7	43	1.5 4/1	1.5 4/1	—
Diogo Dalot n 8	68.8	1.3 5/2	0.2 1/0	—

Manchester United — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Bruno Fernandes n 8	92.6	2.2 7/5	0.7 4/1
M. Mount n 8	50.1	2.2 5/4	1.8 4/3
O. Martin n 8	27.6	2 3/1	0.8 2/0
Casemiro n 8	87	1.7 7/3	0.9 5/2
R. Højlund n 8	84	1.5 5/2	0.8 5/1

Manchester United — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
M. Ugarte n 8	58.4	0.2 1/0	0.8 3/1
M. Mount n 8	50.1	0.7 2/1	0 0/0
Casemiro n 8	87	0.3 2/0	0.3 1/1
C. Eriksen n 8	39.1	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0
A. Diallo n 8	65.8	0.3 2/0	0.2 1/0

Manchester United — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
N. Mazraoui n 8	73.3	4.5 7/7
M. Ugarte n 8	58.4	3.7 7/6
Casemiro n 8	87	3.1 7/6
M. Mount n 8	50.1	2.9 6/5
Bruno Fernandes n 8	92.6	2.8 8/7

Arsenal

Arsenal — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Mikel Merino n 8	69.8	2.7 8/6	2.3 6/3	—
J. Timber n 8	70.1	2.1 6/2	1 4/2	—
K. Havertz n 8	60.8	2 6/3	1.5 4/3	—
R. Sterling n 8	39.8	1.7 4/2	2.5 3/2	—
Jorginho n 8	88.9	1.6 8/3	0.5 2/2	—

Arsenal — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Bukayo Saka n 8	68	2.6 7/4	1.2 6/1
K. Havertz n 8	60.8	2.6 6/4	1.1 5/1
Gabriel Martinelli n 8	82.3	2.2 8/5	1.4 7/2
Nathan Butler-Oyedeji n 8	24.9	1.8 3/1	0.9 2/0
Mikel Merino n 8	69.8	1.5 5/4	0.5 2/1

Arsenal — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
K. Havertz n 8	60.8	0.6 3/0	0.4 2/0
R. Sterling n 8	39.8	0 0/0	0.8 2/1
K. Tierney n 8	31	0.4 1/0	0.4 1/0
O. Zinchenko n 8	42.6	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0
Riccardo Calafiori n 8	39.9	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0

Arsenal — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 25 May 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Mikel Merino n 8	69.8	3.2 5/4
J. Timber n 8	70.1	2.9 7/6
Declan Rice n 8	85.8	2.1 7/5
T. Partey n 8	79.8	2.1 6/4
Ben White n 8	57.6	1.8 5/2

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Manchester United		Arsenal
61%	Possession	39%
1.52	Expected goals (xG)	1.31
22	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	3
7	Shots off target	3
8	Blocked shots	3
15	Shots inside the box	5
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
10	Fouls	19
1	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
2	Saves	7
475	Passes	294
83%	Pass accuracy	74%

Manchester United player stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
A. Bayındır	90	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
Leny Yoro	90	0	0	0	1	0	7
M. de Ligt	90	2	1	1	2	0	7.5
Bruno Fernandes	90	0	0	5	3	0	7.9
P. Dorgu	90	2	0	0	4	Y	6.9
B. Mbeumo	90	3	2	1	0	0	6.9
Matheus Cunha	90	3	3	1	1	0	7
L. Shaw	80	0	0	1	3	0	6.9
Casemiro	65	0	0	1	3	0	7.2
M. Mount	65	0	0	2	1	0	6.9
Diogo Dalot	55	0	0	1	1	0	6.9
A. Diallo sub	35	1	1	1	3	0	7.3
M. Ugarte sub	25	1	0	1	0	0	6.3
Benjamin Šeško sub	25	2	0	2	0	0	6.2
H. Maguire sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	6.5

Arsenal player stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
David Raya	90	0	0	0	0	0	Y	8.2
William Saliba	90	0	0	0	0	4	0	7.3
Gabriel Magalhães	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	7
Martin Ødegaard	90	0	2	1	1	1	0	7.7
Martín Zubimendi	90	0	0	0	0	3	0	7.3
Bukayo Saka	90	0	0	0	1	3	0	6.3
Declan Rice	83	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.3
Riccardo Calafiori	72	1	1	1	0	1	Y	8.2
Ben White	71	0	1	0	1	2	0	7.3
Viktor Gyökeres	60	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Gabriel Martinelli	60	0	1	1	1	1	0	6.3
Noni Madueke sub	30	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.5
K. Havertz sub	30	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
J. Timber sub	19	0	0	0	0	2	Y	6.3
Myles Lewis-Skelly sub	18	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.7
Mikel Merino sub	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Manchester United v Arsenal — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Manchester UnitedWLLLW

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.2 scored / 1 conceded per game

ArsenalLLDWW

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Manchester United 0 · 2 draws · Arsenal 4 · 2.67 goals/game

2025-03-09 Manchester United 1–1 Arsenal
2025-01-12 Arsenal 1–1 Manchester United
2024-12-04 Arsenal 2–0 Manchester United
2024-05-12 Manchester United 0–1 Arsenal
2023-09-03 Arsenal 3–1 Manchester United
2023-01-22 Arsenal 3–2 Manchester United

League standing · 2025/26

Manchester United#3 pos71 pts38 pl+19 GD

Arsenal#1 pos85 pts38 pl+44 GD

Goals per game

Manchester United scored1.82

Arsenal scored1.87

Manchester United conceded1.32

Arsenal conceded0.71

Shot map and expected goals

Manchester United 1.39 xG from 22 shots, Arsenal 1.33 from 9. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Manchester United (attacking right)Arsenal (attacking left)mark size = expected goals

Team	Shots	Goals	xG
Manchester United	22	0	1.39
Arsenal	9	1	1.33

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Manchester United v Arsenal?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Manchester United v Arsenal was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester United and Arsenal?: In their last 6 meetings, Manchester United won 0, Arsenal won 4 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Manchester United and Arsenal?: Recent form — Manchester United 2W 0D 3L; Arsenal 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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