Como v Manchester United prediction

UEFA Champions League ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Como v Manchester United, UEFA Champions League on Wed, 21 Oct 2026 17:45 BST.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 643 landed (95% range 61.9–69.2%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Como host Manchester United in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 21 October (kick-off 17:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Manchester United are winless in their last six matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Eight of Como’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in nine of Como’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Como have three wins, two draws and no defeats in their last 5 home matches in all competitions — 2.20 points per game, scoring 1.40 and conceding 0.40.

Eight of Manchester United’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in nine of Manchester United’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Manchester United have one win, four draws and two defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.14.

Como (12th) and Manchester United (13th) are level on points, 2026/27 so far.

Team news

By TACTIX Impact, N. Paz (7.0 per match over nine appearances, two goals and four assists) and Assane Diao (5.7 per match over eight appearances, four goals and one assist) have been Como’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Como (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), N. Paz averages 1.8 key passes per 90 over 1026 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Assane Diao averages 2.4 key passes per 90 over 602 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances.

By TACTIX Impact, Youri Tielemans (4.2 per match over 10 appearances, three assists) and Bruno Fernandes (4.2 per match over 10 appearances, four goals and one assist) have been Manchester United’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Manchester United (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Youri Tielemans averages 1.7 key passes per 90 over 1740 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Bruno Fernandes averages 2.7 key passes per 90 over 1766 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · UEFA Champions League
  • Model coverage: 242 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: Como 2W 1D 2L · Manchester United 0W 3D 2L

Como v Manchester United (UEFA Champions League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2.13 / 1.38
Goals
against 1.25 / 1.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
5.38 / 5.63
Corners
against 5.13 / 3.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
6.63 / 4.63
Shots on target
against 4 / 4 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.75 / 1.63
Cards
against 2.13 / 2.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
242
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameComo for / againstLineManchester United for / against
Goals scored
2.13 for · 1.25 against n 8
3our book
1.38 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
5.38 for · 5.13 against n 8
9.5standard
5.63 for · 3.38 against n 8
Shots
19.63 for · 14.13 against n 8
19.5standard
15.63 for · 12.5 against n 8
Shots on target
6.63 for · 4 against n 8
8.5standard
4.63 for · 4 against n 8
Fouls committed
9.5 for · 11.5 against n 8
21.5standard
10.13 for · 12 against n 8
Cards shown
1.75 for · 2.13 against n 8
3.5standard
1.63 for · 2.63 against n 8
Como
Como — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
S. Ricci n 826.5
2.14/1
1.72/1
—
M. Liberali n 850.8
25/3
2.76/3
—
J. Addai n 844.6
26/1
1.56/0
—
N. Paz n 875.3
1.97/4
0.73/2
—
Jesús Rodríguez n 848.5
1.64/2
1.94/2
—
Como — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
N. Paz n 875.3
4.28/7
1.65/4
T. Douvikas n 846.9
3.47/5
1.96/2
M. Kean n 856.9
37/5
26/4
M. Liberali n 850.8
2.46/3
1.66/1
Kaiki n 858.3
1.96/3
0.63/0
Como — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
N. Paz n 875.3
0.43/0
0.74/1
T. Douvikas n 846.9
14/0
00/0
Assane Diao n 867
0.73/1
0.21/0
Jesús Rodríguez n 848.5
0.21/0
0.52/0
M. Baturina n 848.4
0.52/0
0.21/0
Como — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Kaiki n 858.3
3.57/5
N. Paz n 875.3
3.47/7
M. Caqueret n 840.9
2.84/3
Jacobo Ramón Naveros n 888.3
2.77/6
I. Smolčić n 849.8
2.34/4
Como — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Robert Sánchez n 887
3.27/6
Jean Butez n 890
2.35/3
Manchester United
Manchester United — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
P. Dorgu n 844
3.15/4
24/3
—
S. Lacey n 724.6
2.12/2
2.12/2
—
C. Baleba n 866.3
1.77/3
1.97/3
—
Matheus Cunha n 856.9
1.64/3
1.85/3
—
J. Zirkzee n 824.5
1.42/1
0.51/0
—
Manchester United — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
S. Lacey n 724.6
3.15/1
12/0
J. Zirkzee n 824.5
2.84/1
1.83/1
A. Diallo n 850.3
2.76/5
1.34/2
P. Dorgu n 844
2.66/3
0.52/0
M. Rashford n 862.8
2.35/3
1.13/3
Manchester United — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Benjamin Šeško n 842.4
1.14/0
00/0
A. Diallo n 850.3
0.73/0
00/0
Matheus Cunha n 856.9
0.42/0
0.21/0
B. Mbeumo n 879.5
0.43/0
0.11/0
P. Dorgu n 844
00/0
0.52/0
Manchester United — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Mount n 842.6
4.57/4
P. Dorgu n 844
4.35/3
H. Amass n 871.5
3.37/5
Andrey Santos n 848.1
3.36/5
A. Diallo n 850.3
3.17/3
Manchester United — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 18 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
S. Lammens n 890
4.37/6
K. Darlow n 890
3.56/4

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Como v Manchester United — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
ComoWLDLW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Manchester UnitedLDDLD
Last 5: 0W 3D 2L · 1 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
League standing · 2026/27
Como#12 pos3 pts2 pl+2 GD
Manchester United#13 pos3 pts2 pl+2 GD
Goals per game
Como scored3
Manchester United scored2
Como conceded2
Manchester United conceded1

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)
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Win probability & value
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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Como v Manchester United?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Como v Manchester United is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the recent form of Como and Manchester United?
Recent form — Como 2W 1D 2L; Manchester United 0W 3D 2L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

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