Hibernian v Kilmarnock result

Full-time · Hibernian 2–2 Kilmarnock

Premiership ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Hibernian · Kilmarnock · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Hibernian 2–2 Kilmarnock — this Premiership match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Under 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 52.3% of 176 landed (95% range 44.9–59.5%); it had given them 77.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Hibernian and Kilmarnock drew 2–2 in the Premiership on Sunday 10 August. Hibernian have scored in nine consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Hibernian led 2–1 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Hibernian: R. Bushiri (20’, assisted by Jamie McGrath) and É. Youan (27’, assisted by J. Hoilett); Kilmarnock: L. Polworth (45’) and Ben Brannan (48’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Ben Brannan’s goal on 48 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Hibernian 1.24, Kilmarnock 0.96, from 12 shots to 10 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Nick Walsh, Scotland showed three yellow cards — against 4.4 yellows a game across the last 8 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Hibernian: Josh Mulligan (73’); Kilmarnock: Lewis Mayo (11’) and Jamie Brandon (57’).

What it changes

Hibernian are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. Kilmarnock are unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Ben Brannan (Kilmarnock) 9.9, L. Polworth (Kilmarnock) 8.2 and J. Hoilett (Hibernian) 6.8 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 52.3% of the time in the last 90 days (92 of 176).

Next up

Hibernian next host Celtic on 25 October 2026.

Kilmarnock next travel to Falkirk on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Hibernian: Hibernian v Celtic, Sunday 25 October — the preview. Next for Kilmarnock: Falkirk v Kilmarnock, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Hibernian 2–2 Kilmarnock · Premiership
  • Referee: Nick Walsh, Scotland
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Hibernian 2 · draws 4 · Kilmarnock 0 · 2.33 goals/game
  • Recent form: Hibernian 2W 2D 1L · Kilmarnock 3W 2D 0L

Hibernian 2–2 Kilmarnock (Premiership): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 1.5
Goals
against 1.5 / 1 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
6 / 3.4
Corners
against 6.6 / 3.2 · 2 of the last 2 over 9.5
over 5 matches
5 / 2.6
Shots on target
against 5.4 / 4.8 · 1 of the last 2 over 8.5
over 5 matches
2.17 / 1.4
Cards
against 2.67 / 1.4 · 3 of the last 3 over 3.5
over 5 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 7 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 7 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameHibernian for / againstLineKilmarnock for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 1.5 against n 8
2.5standard
1.5 for · 1 against n 8
Corners won
6 for · 6.6 against n 5
9.5standard
3.4 for · 3.2 against n 5
Shots
11.6 for · 13.2 against n 5
19.5standard
11 for · 12.6 against n 5
Shots on target
5 for · 5.4 against n 5
8.5standard
2.6 for · 4.8 against n 5
Fouls committed
9 for · 8.4 against n 5
21.5standard
9.2 for · 9 against n 5
Cards shown
2.17 for · 2.67 against n 6
3.5standard
1.4 for · 1.4 against n 5

Referee: Nick Walsh, Scotland.

Hibernian
Hibernian — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
D. Gayle n 819
3.65/1
1.22/0
—
Kieron Bowie n 842.1
2.46/2
2.76/3
—
A. Manneh n 834.5
2.36/1
0.31/0
—
N. Triantis n 888.6
27/6
15/2
—
J. Mulligan n 885.9
1.47/4
1.78/4
J. Brandon
Hibernian — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Kukharevych n 851.1
3.16/3
1.13/1
J. Campbell n 840.6
36/3
0.82/1
É. Youan n 875.3
2.17/5
1.26/2
M. Boyle n 881.5
1.96/5
1.15/3
D. Gayle n 819
1.82/1
1.82/1
Hibernian — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Kieron Bowie n 842.1
1.33/2
0.31/0
D. Gayle n 819
1.22/0
00/0
N. Cadden n 840.6
00/0
1.14/0
M. Boyle n 881.5
0.75/0
0.32/0
É. Youan n 875.3
0.32/0
0.11/0
Hibernian — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Hoilett n 851.9
2.66/3
J. McGrath n 847.5
2.66/4
J. Mulligan n 885.9
2.57/6
N. Triantis n 888.6
27/5
N. Moriah-Welsh n 833.8
24/1
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. Brandon n 883.6
2.78/6
1.15/3
J. Mulligan
D. Daniels n 875.6
2.77/5
16/1
—
M. Watkins n 837.4
2.74/2
1.84/1
—
L. Donnelly n 878.8
2.47/5
1.97/4
—
K. Vassell n 856.9
2.27/4
2.86/4
—
Kilmarnock — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
K. Vassell n 856.9
27/2
1.44/2
D. Armstrong n 872.3
1.97/4
0.85/0
F. Murray n 887.6
1.76/3
0.52/1
B. Anderson n 867.8
1.56/1
16/0
L. Polworth n 839.8
1.45/0
0.62/0
Kilmarnock — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
D. Armstrong n 872.3
0.53/0
0.53/0
B. Anderson n 867.8
0.53/0
0.21/0
L. Donnelly n 878.8
0.11/0
0.32/0
D. Daniels n 875.6
0.43/0
00/0
F. Murray n 887.6
0.31/1
00/0
Kilmarnock — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
L. Donnelly n 878.8
37/6
L. Polworth n 839.8
2.86/2
J. Brandon n 883.6
2.77/6
D. Watson n 880.6
2.47/5
L. Mayo n 886.1
2.17/6

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
HibernianKilmarnock
60%Possession40%
1.24Expected goals (xG)0.96
12Shots10
6Shots on target2
5Shots off target4
1Blocked shots4
9Shots inside the box5
4Corners7
0Offsides3
10Fouls15
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
0Saves4
538Passes364
86%Pass accuracy79%

Hibernian player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Smith9000000005.5
W. O'Hora9000000006.2
R. Bushiri9010210007.2
J. Mulligan90001003Y7.3
J. McGrath9001113008.3
J. Obita9000001006.9
Kieron Bowie8900420206.2
D. Levitt8200002106.9
G. Hanley5900000006.2
É. Youan5910111007.9
J. Hoilett5901212307.3
J. Iredale sub3100000007
C. Cadden sub3100000006.3
M. Boyle sub3100000006.2
J. Campbell sub800000106.3
T. Klidje sub10000000–

Kilmarnock player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Stryjek9000000007.2
E. Brown9000000507
L. Mayo90000003Y7.2
R. Deas9000001006.9
D. Watson9000000106.7
L. Polworth9010112308.6
Ben Brannan9010112408.5
M. Dackers9000301005.9
D. Daniels8200101106.7
J. Brandon68000009Y7.3
R. McKenzie6300000106.2
G. Kiltie sub2700000106.3
D. Thompson sub2200000106.9
B. Anderson sub800000006.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Hibernian v Kilmarnock — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
HibernianDDLWW
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
KilmarnockWWDWD
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 1.8 scored / 0.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Hibernian 2 · 4 draws · Kilmarnock 0 · 2.33 goals/game
  • 2025-03-15 Kilmarnock 1–1 Hibernian
  • 2024-12-29 Hibernian 1–0 Kilmarnock
  • 2024-09-01 Kilmarnock 1–1 Hibernian
  • 2024-01-27 Kilmarnock 2–2 Hibernian
  • 2023-11-11 Hibernian 1–0 Kilmarnock
  • 2023-09-16 Kilmarnock 2–2 Hibernian
League standing · 2025/26
Hibernian#5 pos57 pts38 pl+14 GD
Kilmarnock#4 pos40 pts38 pl-18 GD
Goals per game
Hibernian scored1.53
Kilmarnock scored1.32
Hibernian conceded1.16
Kilmarnock conceded1.79

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Hibernian v Kilmarnock?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Hibernian v Kilmarnock was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Hibernian and Kilmarnock?
In their last 6 meetings, Hibernian won 2, Kilmarnock won 0 and there were 4 draws, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Hibernian and Kilmarnock?
Recent form — Hibernian 2W 2D 1L; Kilmarnock 3W 2D 0L.

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