Alverca v Arouca prediction
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Alverca v Arouca, Primeira Liga on Sat, 24 Oct 2026 15:30 BST.
The match
Alverca host Arouca in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 24 October (kick-off 15:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Alverca or Arouca (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.
Form and the table
Seven of Alverca’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in nine of Alverca’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Alverca have three wins, three draws and one defeat in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.71 points per game, scoring 1.57 and conceding 1.14. Alverca have scored 13 goals, the fifth-most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Alverca have conceded 12 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.
Nine of Arouca’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in eight of Arouca’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Arouca have two wins, two draws and three defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.14 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.14. Arouca have scored 11 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Arouca have conceded seven goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.
Alverca (eighth) and Arouca (fifth) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Alverca the stronger side, 18 rating points above Arouca (Alverca 1708, Arouca 1690, after at least 42 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 24 April 2026, finished Alverca 2–1 Arouca.
Team news
Predicted Alverca XI (3-4-3): M. Mendes, S. Baseya, Y. Bojang, I. James, D. Gui, Rayan, F. Chissumba, I. Luccas, Figueiredo, Chiquinho, V. Semedo — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Chiquinho (7.4 per match over six appearances, two goals and two assists) and Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques (5.2 per match over four appearances, three assists) have been Alverca’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Alverca (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Chiquinho averages 2.3 shots per 90 over 467 minutes, with a shot in five of the last six appearances. Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 339 minutes.
Predicted Arouca XI (4-2-3-1): I. de Arruabarrena, J. Fontán, T. Esgaio, O. Lebedenko, J. Sánchez, T. Fukui, N. Djouahra, A. Trezza, E. van Ee, P. Gozálbez, Barbero — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, José Fontán (4.1 per match over eight appearances, two goals) and Näis Djouahra (4.1 per match over eight appearances, five assists) have been Arouca’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Arouca (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), José Fontán averages 1.5 tackles per 90 over 720 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last eight appearances. Näis Djouahra averages 1.2 key passes per 90 over 670 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last eight appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · Primeira Liga · FC Alverca Sports Complex
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 2): Alverca 1 · draws 0 · Arouca 1 · 2 goals/game
- Recent form: Alverca 3W 0D 2L · Arouca 2W 2D 1L
Alverca v Arouca (Primeira Liga): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Alverca for / against | Line | Arouca for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.63 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5our book | 1.38 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 3.63 for · 2.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 3.13 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 10.25 for · 11 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 10.5 for · 14.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 3.5 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 3.75 for · 4.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 13.38 for · 9.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 10.38 for · 10.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.88 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 3.13 for · 3.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
Alverca
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivaldo Semedo n 8 | 47.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | — |
| D. Gui n 8 | 63.1 | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| Figueiredo n 8 | 78.5 | 1.9 | 1.7 | — |
| Francisco Chissumba n 8 | 66.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | — |
| D. Camara n 8 | 52.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| D. Camara n 8 | 52.4 | 3 | 1.5 |
| M. Essimi Ateba n 8 | 32.5 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Chiquinho n 8 | 79.3 | 2 | 0.9 |
| Matheus França n 8 | 27.8 | 2 | 1.2 |
| Vivaldo Semedo n 8 | 47.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco Moreira n 8 | 12.4 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Vivaldo Semedo n 8 | 47.8 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Chiquinho n 8 | 79.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| D. Camara n 8 | 52.4 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques n 8 | 63 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| D. Gui n 8 | 63.1 | 4.3 |
| Chiquinho n 8 | 79.3 | 3.3 |
| Rayan n 7 | 59.3 | 3.3 |
| I. James n 8 | 85.5 | 2.6 |
| Toni Tamarit n 8 | 49.1 | 2.1 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Matheus Mendes n 8 | 90 | 3.1 |
Arouca
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Mayulu n 8 | 10 | 6.8 | 0 | — |
| D. Nandín n 8 | 21.9 | 3.6 | 4.6 | — |
| B. Mansilla n 8 | 13.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | — |
| Mario Climent n 8 | 59.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | — |
| Diogo Monteiro n 8 | 41.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| D. Nandín n 8 | 21.9 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
| Barbero n 8 | 71.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| B. Mansilla n 8 | 13.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| F. Mayulu n 8 | 10 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| N. Djouahra n 8 | 83.8 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| D. Nandín n 8 | 21.9 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Barbero n 8 | 71.5 | 0.8 | 0 |
| N. Djouahra n 8 | 83.8 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Lee Hyun-Ju n 8 | 56.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| José Fontán n 8 | 90 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Pedro Santos n 8 | 23.9 | 5.2 |
| O. Lebedenko n 8 | 80.8 | 2.4 |
| Pablo Gozálbez n 8 | 47.4 | 2.4 |
| Diogo Monteiro n 8 | 41.8 | 2.4 |
| Mario Climent n 8 | 59.9 | 2.3 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| I. de Arruabarrena n 8 | 90 | 3.6 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Alverca v Arouca — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-04-24 Alverca 2–1 Arouca
- 2025-12-14 Arouca 1–0 Alverca
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Alverca v Arouca?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Alverca v Arouca is Home or Away.
- What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and Arouca?
- In their last 2 meetings, Alverca won 1, Arouca won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Alverca and Arouca?
- Recent form — Alverca 3W 0D 2L; Arouca 2W 2D 1L.
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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