Alverca v Casa Pia prediction

Primeira Liga · Sat, 07 Nov 2026 18:00 GMT · FC Alverca Sports Complex

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 19:18 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Draw the free pick for Alverca v Casa Pia, Primeira Liga on Sat, 07 Nov 2026 18:00 GMT.

Free pick

Home or Draw

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 75.4% of 1690 landed (95% range 73.3–77.4%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 969 of 1,304 times (74.3%), against an average rating of 70.3%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Alverca host Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 7 November (kick-off 18:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Alverca or the draw, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Three of Casa Pia’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (20%). Both teams scored in three of Casa Pia’s last 15 results in all competitions (20%).

Form and the table

Six of Alverca’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in eight of Alverca’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Alverca have two wins, three draws and two defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.29 points per game, scoring 1.14 and conceding 1.14. Alverca have scored 13 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Alverca have conceded 13 goals, the eighth-most of the 18 clubs.

Away from home, Casa Pia have four wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.75 points per game, scoring 0.75 and conceding 0.50. Casa Pia have scored five goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Casa Pia have conceded 19 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Alverca (ninth) and Casa Pia (17th) are four points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Alverca the stronger side, 160 rating points above Casa Pia (Alverca 1650, Casa Pia 1490, after at least 43 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 12 April 2026, finished Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia.

Team news

Predicted Alverca XI (3-4-3): M. Mendes, S. Gómez, I. James, Y. Bojang, D. Marques, D. Gui, Rayan, F. Chissumba, Figueiredo, Chiquinho, D. Camara — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Chiquinho (7.0 per match over seven appearances, two goals and two assists) and Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques (4.4 per match over five appearances, three assists) have been Alverca’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Alverca (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Chiquinho averages 2.4 shots per 90 over 557 minutes, with a shot in six of the last seven appearances. Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques averages 1.7 key passes per 90 over 429 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last five appearances.

Predicted Casa Pia XI (4-2-3-1): P. Sequeira, Geraldes, P. Rosas, Kaly, D. Sousa, J. Rêgo, L. Ofori, B. Pauwels, M. El Boukammiri, S. Pérez, H. Araújo — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo (5.7 per match over seven appearances, one goal) and Silvi (3.5 per match over nine appearances, one goal) have been Casa Pia’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Casa Pia (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo averages 0.7 key passes per 90 over 601 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last seven appearances. Silvi averages 0.2 key passes per 90 over 560 minutes, with a key pass in one of the last nine appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sat, 07 Nov 2026 18:00 GMT · Primeira Liga · FC Alverca Sports Complex
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 2): Alverca 2 · draws 0 · Casa Pia 0 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: Alverca 3W 0D 2L · Casa Pia 3W 0D 2L

Alverca v Casa Pia (Primeira Liga): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 31 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.38 / 0.75

Goals

against 1.13 / 1.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.29 / 4.14

Corners

against 3.57 / 7.57 · 2 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 7 matches

3.57 / 3

Shots on target

against 4 / 6 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 7 matches

2.29 / 2.43

Cards

against 2.14 / 2.43 · 3 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 30 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 30 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Alverca for / against	Line	Casa Pia for / against
Goals scored	1.38 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.75 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.29 for · 3.57 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	4.14 for · 7.57 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	11.14 for · 13.57 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	10.71 for · 17.29 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	3.57 for · 4 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	3 for · 6 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	15.14 for · 11 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	12.14 for · 13.14 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	2.29 for · 2.14 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	2.43 for · 2.43 against n 7 Last 5

Alverca

Alverca Goalkeeper

Alverca — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Matheus Mendes	9	90810 min	283.1 /90	91 /90	00 /90
Mateus Oliveira	1	9090 min	11 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Alverca — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Matheus Mendes n 8	90	3.2 7/6

Alverca Defensive

Alverca — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
I. James	9	86774 min	212.4 /90	80.9 /90	20.2 /90	333.8 /90	40.5 /90	00 /90
S. Baseya	7	90630 min	142 /90	101.4 /90	20.3 /90	446.3 /90	40.6 /90	00 /90
Y. Bojang	7	84591 min	40.6 /90	50.8 /90	40.6 /90	152.3 /90	40.6 /90	30.5 /90
Sergi Gómez	6	76458 min	61.2 /90	40.8 /90	10.2 /90	91.8 /90	71.4 /90	00 /90
I. James	2	90180 min	21 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90	21 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90
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Alverca — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Matheus Mendes n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
I. James n 8	85.5	0.5 4/0	0.1 1/0	—
Figueiredo n 8	78	1.7 6/3	1.9 6/4	—
D. Gui n 8	71.4	2 7/4	0.9 6/0	—
Vivaldo Semedo n 8	47.8	2.1 6/2	1.2 3/1	—
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Alverca — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
I. James n 8	85.5	2.6 7/7
Figueiredo n 8	78	1.9 7/4
D. Gui n 8	71.4	3.8 7/5
Vivaldo Semedo n 8	47.8	0.2 1/0
S. Baseya n 8	90	1.9 7/4
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Alverca Attacking

Alverca — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Figueiredo	9	78703 min	20.3 /90	00 /90	111.4 /90	50.6 /90	151.9 /90	151.9 /90
Vivaldo Semedo	8	48382 min	30.7 /90	00 /90	81.9 /90	40.9 /90	40.9 /90	20.5 /90
Chiquinho	7	80557 min	20.3 /90	20.3 /90	152.4 /90	50.8 /90	162.6 /90	121.9 /90
André Vidigal	7	42292 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	41.2 /90	10.3 /90	30.9 /90	10.3 /90
D. Camara	5	61305 min	30.9 /90	00 /90	103 /90	61.8 /90	10.3 /90	20.6 /90
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Alverca — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Matheus Mendes n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
I. James n 8	85.5	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
Figueiredo n 8	78	1.4 6/2	0.7 4/1
D. Gui n 8	71.4	1.1 5/2	0.3 2/0
Vivaldo Semedo n 8	47.8	1.9 5/2	0.9 4/0
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Alverca — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Matheus Mendes n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
I. James n 8	85.5	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
Figueiredo n 8	78	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
D. Gui n 8	71.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
Vivaldo Semedo n 8	47.8	0.7 3/0	0 0/0
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Casa Pia

Casa Pia Goalkeeper

Casa Pia — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded
André Gomes	5	78389 min	112.5 /90	92.1 /90
Ivan Mandić	4	83331 min	133.5 /90	61.6 /90
P. Sequeira	2	90180 min	157.5 /90	00 /90

Casa Pia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Casa Pia before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
André Gomes n 5	77.8	2.5 4/2
Ivan Mandić n 4	82.8	3.5 2/2
P. Sequeira n 8	90	3.9 8/4

Casa Pia Defensive

Casa Pia — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Geraldes	10	90900 min	90.9 /90	101 /90	30.3 /90	282.8 /90	101 /90	20.2 /90
David Sousa	10	86857 min	212.2 /90	161.7 /90	50.5 /90	666.9 /90	141.5 /90	40.4 /90
Pedro Rosas	8	80637 min	152.1 /90	71 /90	40.6 /90	304.2 /90	142 /90	20.3 /90
Kaly	7	76535 min	132.2 /90	81.3 /90	71.2 /90	386.4 /90	91.5 /90	40.7 /90
João Goulart	6	65388 min	40.9 /90	61.4 /90	30.7 /90	173.9 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90
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Casa Pia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Casa Pia before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Geraldes n 8	90	0.8 5/1	0.3 2/0	—
David Sousa n 8	84.6	1.6 8/3	0.3 2/0	—
L. Ofori n 8	84.5	0.7 3/1	1.1 4/2	—
Henrique Araújo n 8	57.3	0.6 2/1	2 6/2	—
Pedro Rosas n 8	79.6	2 6/5	0.3 2/0	—
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Casa Pia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Casa Pia before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Geraldes n 8	90	1 4/2
David Sousa n 8	84.6	2.7 7/7
L. Ofori n 8	84.5	1.3 5/3
Henrique Araújo n 8	57.3	0 0/0
Pedro Rosas n 8	79.6	2.1 6/4
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Casa Pia Attacking

Casa Pia — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Henrique Araújo	9	61548 min	10.2 /90	10.2 /90	142.3 /90	30.5 /90	81.3 /90	10.2 /90
A. Jatta	5	56280 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90	10.3 /90	31 /90
Cassiano	4	34135 min	00 /90	00 /90	21.3 /90	21.3 /90	10.7 /90	00 /90
K. Osundina	2	4997 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	10.9 /90
J. Livolant	2	3875 min	00 /90	00 /90	11.2 /90	11.2 /90	44.8 /90	00 /90
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Casa Pia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Casa Pia before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Geraldes n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
David Sousa n 8	84.6	0.8 4/1	0.3 2/0
L. Ofori n 8	84.5	0.8 4/2	0.3 1/1
Henrique Araújo n 8	57.3	2.4 6/4	0.4 2/0
Pedro Rosas n 8	79.6	0.7 4/1	0.1 1/0
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Casa Pia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Casa Pia before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Geraldes n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
David Sousa n 8	84.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Ofori n 8	84.5	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
Henrique Araújo n 8	57.3	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
Pedro Rosas n 8	79.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Alverca v Casa Pia — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

AlvercaWWWLL

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1 conceded per game

Casa PiaWLWWL

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 2

Alverca 2 · 0 draws · Casa Pia 0 · 3 goals/game

2026-04-12 Alverca 3–1 Casa Pia
2025-11-29 Casa Pia 0–2 Alverca

League standing · 2026/27

Alverca#9 pos11 pts9 pl0 GD

Casa Pia#17 pos7 pts10 pl-14 GD

Goals per game

Alverca scored1.44

Casa Pia scored0.5

Alverca conceded1.44

Casa Pia conceded1.9

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Alverca v Casa Pia?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Alverca v Casa Pia is Home or Draw.
What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and Casa Pia?: In their last 2 meetings, Alverca won 2, Casa Pia won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Alverca and Casa Pia?: Recent form — Alverca 3W 0D 2L; Casa Pia 3W 0D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 31 Oct 2026, 19:18 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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