AlvercaEstoril

Alverca v Estoril result

Full-time · Alverca 1–1 Estoril

Primeira Liga · · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Alverca · Estoril

The model’s pre-match pick

Alverca 1–1 Estoril — this Primeira Liga match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Under 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 55.7% of 140 landed (95% range 47.4–63.7%); it had given them 77.6% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Alverca and Estoril drew 1–1 at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 10 May. Estoril are winless in their last seven matches in all competitions.

The goals

Alverca led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Alverca: Figueiredo (12’, assisted by Zoubdi); Estoril: André Lacximicant (47’, assisted by Gonçalo Costa).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with André Lacximicant’s goal on 47 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Alverca, from fewer shots (8 to 11), created the better chances, 1.27 xG to 0.90 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

I. Vasilica showed five yellow cards — against 3.6 yellows a game across the last 10 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Alverca: Rhaldney (45+3’), B. Meupiyou (56’) and Kaiky Naves (90+4’); Estoril: Antef Tsoungui (45+3’) and Pedro Carvalho (90+4’).

What it changes

Alverca move down from ninth to 10th (33 league matches played).

Estoril stay ninth after this result (33 league matches played).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Figueiredo (Alverca) 9.0, André Lacximicant (Estoril) 4.7 and Davy Gui (Alverca) 4.5 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Alverca next travel to Academico Viseu on 28 November 2026.

Estoril next travel to GIL Vicente on 29 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Alverca: Academico Viseu v Alverca, Saturday 28 November — the preview. Next for Estoril: GIL Vicente v Estoril, Sunday 29 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Alverca 1–1 Estoril · Primeira Liga
  • Venue: Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca · Alverca do Ribatejo
  • Referee: I. Vasilica
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 1): Alverca 0 · draws 0 · Estoril 1 · 5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Alverca 3W 0D 2L · Estoril 0W 1D 4L

Alverca 1–1 Estoril (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 0.75
Goals
against 1.38 / 1.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
6.13 / 4.63
Corners
against 4.38 / 5.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.38 / 2.5
Shots on target
against 4.88 / 4.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.13 / 2.13
Cards
against 2.38 / 2.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
3.6 yellows
Referee · I. Vasilica
27.8 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 10 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 3 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 3 May 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameAlverca for / againstLineEstoril for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 1.38 against n 8
2.75our book
0.75 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
6.13 for · 4.38 against n 8
9.5standard
4.63 for · 5.25 against n 8
Shots
12 for · 13.25 against n 8
19.5standard
9.5 for · 12.13 against n 8
Shots on target
4.38 for · 4.88 against n 8
8.5standard
2.5 for · 4.5 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.75 for · 13.38 against n 8
21.5standard
13.88 for · 13.38 against n 8
Cards shown
1.13 for · 2.38 against n 8
3.5standard
2.13 for · 2.38 against n 8

Referee: I. Vasilica — 3.6 yellow cards a game, 0.1 red cards, 27.8 fouls over 10 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Alverca

Alverca Goalkeeper

Alverca — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
André Gomes25902250 min712.8 /90411.6 /9010 /90
Matheus Mendes790630 min243.4 /9091.3 /9000 /90
Alverca — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
André Gomes n 890
2.97/4
Matheus Mendes n 790
3.45/4

Alverca Defensive

Alverca — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Kaiky Naves30892655 min782.6 /90451.5 /90351.2 /901324.5 /90301 /9080.3 /90
B. Meupiyou29872531 min461.6 /90301.1 /90120.4 /901134 /90281 /9050.2 /90
Sergi Gómez28862394 min291.1 /90200.8 /90130.5 /90572.1 /90130.5 /9010 /90
J. Martínez1066657 min141.9 /9040.5 /9060.8 /90324.4 /9091.2 /9010.1 /90
S. Baseya758403 min20.4 /9000 /9040.9 /90173.8 /9030.7 /9010.2 /90
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Alverca — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Kaiky Naves n 889.9
1.36/1
0.11/0
F. Bacher
Zoubdi n 890
0.43/0
0.65/0
J. Holsgrove
M. Milovanović n 829.5
0.82/0
1.53/1
—
B. Meupiyou n 890
0.63/2
0.43/0
F. Bacher
Sergi Gómez n 886
0.84/2
0.11/0
F. Bacher
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Alverca — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Kaiky Naves n 889.9
2.36/6
Zoubdi n 890
0.52/1
M. Milovanović n 829.5
00/0
B. Meupiyou n 890
1.15/4
Sergi Gómez n 886
1.65/3
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Alverca Attacking

Alverca — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
M. Milovanović30511523 min90.5 /9020.1 /90311.8 /90211.2 /9070.4 /9070.4 /90
Sandro Lima26481257 min50.4 /9020.1 /90211.5 /90130.9 /90110.8 /9030.2 /90
Figueiredo23731685 min50.3 /9020.1 /90301.6 /90170.9 /90251.3 /90291.5 /90
Chiquinho19741402 min20.1 /9040.3 /90151 /9060.4 /90221.4 /90301.9 /90
C. Nuozzi1749829 min10.1 /9000 /9091 /9050.5 /9060.7 /90131.4 /90
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Alverca — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Kaiky Naves n 889.9
0.43/0
0.43/0
Zoubdi n 890
1.37/2
0.63/1
M. Milovanović n 829.5
2.74/3
2.34/2
B. Meupiyou n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
Sergi Gómez n 886
0.11/0
0.11/0
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Alverca — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Kaiky Naves n 889.9
0.32/0
00/0
Zoubdi n 890
00/0
0.11/0
M. Milovanović n 829.5
0.82/0
0.41/0
B. Meupiyou n 890
00/0
00/0
Sergi Gómez n 886
00/0
00/0
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Estoril

Estoril Goalkeeper

Estoril — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Joel Robles29902610 min792.7 /90501.7 /9000 /90
M. Turk390270 min93 /9031 /9000 /90
Estoril — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Joel Robles n 890
2.86/5
M. Turk n 390
33/2

Estoril Defensive

Estoril — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
F. Bacher32902880 min451.4 /90471.5 /90150.5 /901735.4 /90361.1 /9040.1 /90
Ricard Sánchez24761812 min351.7 /90160.8 /9040.2 /90934.6 /90341.7 /9090.4 /90
Pedro Amaral24731753 min211.1 /9080.4 /9020.1 /90542.8 /90191 /9030.2 /90
Ferro24641543 min372.2 /90342 /9090.5 /90965.6 /90160.9 /9040.2 /90
Pedro Carvalho23531220 min221.6 /90131 /9000 /90423.1 /90191.4 /9040.3 /90
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Estoril — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
F. Bacher n 890
0.95/2
1.16/3
Sergi Gómez
Y. Begraoui n 884.9
1.15/2
0.85/1
—
J. Holsgrove n 881.1
1.16/2
2.27/5
Zoubdi
João Carvalho n 879.8
0.86/0
1.14/3
—
Joel Robles n 890
00/0
00/0
—
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Estoril — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
F. Bacher n 890
1.56/5
Y. Begraoui n 884.9
0.54/0
J. Holsgrove n 881.1
1.55/3
João Carvalho n 879.8
1.17/1
R. Guitane n 860
1.15/1
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Estoril Attacking

Estoril — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Y. Begraoui32802545 min200.7 /9010 /90592.1 /90341.2 /90190.7 /90230.8 /90
Alejandro Marqués21531107 min40.3 /9000 /90161.3 /90100.8 /9060.5 /90141.1 /90
André Lacximicant19571092 min20.2 /9020.2 /90292.4 /90131.1 /90110.9 /9060.5 /90
Peixinho724165 min00 /9000 /9021.1 /9000 /9031.6 /9063.3 /90
Fabrício Garcia627164 min00 /9000 /9021.1 /9010.5 /9000 /9010.5 /90
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Estoril — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
F. Bacher n 890
0.31/1
0.11/0
Y. Begraoui n 884.9
1.58/2
0.75/0
J. Holsgrove n 881.1
14/2
0.32/0
João Carvalho n 879.8
16/1
0.32/0
Joel Robles n 890
00/0
00/0
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Estoril — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estoril before kick-off, to 3 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
F. Bacher n 890
0.11/0
00/0
Y. Begraoui n 884.9
0.43/0
00/0
J. Holsgrove n 881.1
00/0
0.11/0
João Carvalho n 879.8
00/0
0.32/0
Joel Robles n 890
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
AlvercaEstoril
42%Possession58%
1.27Expected goals (xG)0.90
8Shots11
1Shots on target3
4Shots off target7
3Blocked shots1
5Shots inside the box5
4Corners4
3Offsides0
20Fouls15
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
2Saves0
356Passes495
81%Pass accuracy86%

Alverca Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Matheus Mendes9000000006.2
Kaiky Naves90001010Y6.5
Sergi Gómez9000000006.3
Zoubdi9001101106.9
Lincoln9000001207.6
Figueiredo9010113408.2
B. Meupiyou88000001Y6.7
D. Gui8800000306.9
Rhaldney74000000Y6.2
Sandro Lima7400100106.6
Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques6600000306.6
I. Julian sub2400000006.9
Vasco Moreira sub1600000006.7
Felipe Lima sub1600000006.3
S. Baseya sub800000006.6
C. Nuozzi sub800100006.2

Estoril Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Joel Robles9000000006.9
F. Bacher9000001106.9
A. Tsoungui90001003Y7.2
J. Holsgrove9000101106.6
João Carvalho9000110206.6
Y. Begraoui9000100006.2
Ricard Sánchez8000101107
R. Guitane8000201106.9
Xeka7200000006.3
Ferro4500000206.9
Pedro Amaral4500000006.2
Gonçalo Costa sub4501111006.9
André Lacximicant sub4510110107.6
K. Boma sub1800000107
Pedro Carvalho sub10001000Y6.6
Peixinho sub1000000006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Alverca v Estoril — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
AlvercaWWLWL
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1 conceded per game
EstorilLLLLD
Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.8 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 1
Alverca 0 · 0 draws · Estoril 1 · 5 goals/game
  • 2025-12-27 Estoril 4–1 Alverca
League standing · 2025/26
Alverca#11 pos39 pts34 pl-17 GD
Estoril#10 pos39 pts34 pl-3 GD
Goals per game
Alverca scored1.03
Estoril scored1.59
Alverca conceded1.53
Estoril conceded1.68

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Alverca v Estoril?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Alverca v Estoril was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and Estoril?
In their last 1 meetings, Alverca won 0, Estoril won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Alverca and Estoril?
Recent form — Alverca 3W 0D 2L; Estoril 0W 1D 4L.

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