Benfica v Alverca prediction

Primeira Liga · Mon, 02 Nov 2026 20:15 GMT

Updated 29 Oct 2026, 00:03 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home win the free pick for Benfica v Alverca, Primeira Liga on Mon, 02 Nov 2026 20:15 GMT.

Free pick

Home win

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 78% of 246 landed (95% range 72.5–82.8%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated a home win between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 158 of 238 times (66.4%), against an average rating of 68.2%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Benfica host Alverca in the Primeira Liga on Monday 2 November (kick-off 20:15 UK); the model’s free pick is Benfica to win.

The key numbers

Benfica have scored 26 goals, the most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Benfica have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions. Benfica have won their last four matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

12 of Benfica’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (80%). Both teams scored in 10 of Benfica’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Benfica have five wins, one draw and no defeats in their last 6 home matches in all competitions — 2.67 points per game, scoring 2.67 and conceding 1.00. Benfica have conceded eight goals, the fifth-fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Six of Alverca’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in eight of Alverca’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Alverca have two wins, no draws and six defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 0.75 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.50. Alverca have scored 13 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Alverca have conceded 13 goals, the eighth-most of the 18 clubs.

Benfica (second) and Alverca (eighth) are 11 points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Benfica the stronger side, 320 rating points above Alverca (Benfica 1969, Alverca 1650, after at least 43 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 8 February 2026, finished Benfica 2–1 Alverca.

Team news

Predicted Benfica XI (4-2-3-1): S. Soares, T. Araújo, A. Bah, S. Dahl, C. Lenglet, J. Palhinha, F. Aursnes, G. Prestianni, Rafa, H. Sudakov, V. Pavlidis — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, G. Prestianni (8.1 per match over 12 appearances, seven goals and six assists) and Vangelis Pavlidis (6.7 per match over 12 appearances, 11 goals and three assists) have been Benfica’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Benfica (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), G. Prestianni averages 3.2 key passes per 90 over 983 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Vangelis Pavlidis averages 2.9 shots per 90 over 1277 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Alverca XI (3-4-3): M. Mendes, S. Gómez, I. James, Y. Bojang, D. Marques, D. Gui, Rayan, F. Chissumba, Figueiredo, Chiquinho, D. Camara — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Chiquinho (7.0 per match over seven appearances, two goals and two assists) and Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques (4.4 per match over five appearances, three assists) have been Alverca’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Alverca (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Chiquinho averages 2.4 shots per 90 over 557 minutes, with a shot in six of the last seven appearances. Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques averages 1.7 key passes per 90 over 429 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last five appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Mon, 02 Nov 2026 20:15 GMT · Primeira Liga
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 2): Benfica 2 · draws 0 · Alverca 0 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: Benfica 4W 0D 1L · Alverca 3W 0D 2L

Benfica v Alverca (Primeira Liga): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 29 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.75 / 1.38

Goals

against 0.88 / 1.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

6.5 / 4.29

Corners

against 4.25 / 3.57 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

5.75 / 3.57

Shots on target

against 4 / 4 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

3.75 / 2.29

Cards

against 2.63 / 2.14 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 26 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 26 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Benfica for / against	Line	Alverca for / against
Goals scored	2.75 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5our book	1.38 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6.5 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.29 for · 3.57 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	18.63 for · 11.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11.14 for · 13.57 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	5.75 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.57 for · 4 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.88 for · 15.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	15.14 for · 11 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	3.75 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.29 for · 2.14 against n 7 Last 5

Benfica

Benfica Goalkeeper

Benfica — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Samuel Soares	9	91817 min	151.7 /90	70.8 /90	00 /90
A. Trubin	3	90270 min	144.7 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Benfica — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Benfica before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Samuel Soares n 8	90	1.6 2/2
A. Trubin n 8	90	3.8 7/7

Benfica Defensive

Benfica — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Tomás Araújo	12	871048 min	161.4 /90	121 /90	60.5 /90	393.3 /90	161.4 /90	50.4 /90
S. Dahl	10	86864 min	161.7 /90	141.5 /90	00 /90	414.3 /90	101 /90	20.2 /90
Clément Lenglet	9	85762 min	70.8 /90	121.4 /90	20.2 /90	283.3 /90	121.4 /90	20.2 /90
A. Bah	9	78702 min	121.5 /90	131.7 /90	20.3 /90	314 /90	91.2 /90	30.4 /90
A. Circati	5	70350 min	41 /90	30.8 /90	20.5 /90	133.3 /90	30.8 /90	10.3 /90
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Benfica — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Benfica before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Tomás Araújo n 8	89	1 5/1	0.3 2/0	—
G. Prestianni n 8	67.5	0.2 1/0	3 7/4	—
V. Pavlidis n 8	74	1.1 4/1	2 5/4	—
A. Schjelderup n 8	52.1	0.2 1/0	1.9 5/3	—
S. Dahl n 8	84.6	0.7 2/2	0.8 5/1	—
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Benfica — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Benfica before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Tomás Araújo n 8	89	1.5 4/3
G. Prestianni n 8	67.5	1.8 5/4
V. Pavlidis n 8	74	1.4 5/3
A. Schjelderup n 8	52.1	1.3 4/2
S. Dahl n 8	84.6	1.7 5/3
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Benfica Attacking

Benfica — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
V. Pavlidis	11	75828 min	111.2 /90	30.3 /90	323.5 /90	182 /90	171.8 /90	50.5 /90
A. Schjelderup	11	46508 min	10.2 /90	20.4 /90	132.3 /90	40.7 /90	213.7 /90	81.4 /90
D. Lukebakio	8	37299 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	82.4 /90	51.5 /90	00 /90	61.8 /90
J. Duran	5	43217 min	31.2 /90	00 /90	72.9 /90	31.2 /90	20.8 /90	00 /90
G. Prestianni	12	74882 min	70.7 /90	60.6 /90	383.9 /90	181.8 /90	333.4 /90	313.2 /90
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Benfica — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Benfica before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Tomás Araújo n 8	89	0.6 3/1	0.1 1/0
G. Prestianni n 8	67.5	4 8/6	1.7 6/3
V. Pavlidis n 8	74	3.3 8/8	1.5 6/2
A. Schjelderup n 8	52.1	2.8 6/4	0.9 3/1
S. Dahl n 8	84.6	0.5 3/1	0.3 2/0
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Benfica — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Benfica before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Tomás Araújo n 8	89	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
G. Prestianni n 8	67.5	0.7 4/0	0.8 4/1
V. Pavlidis n 8	74	0.9 5/1	0.3 2/0
A. Schjelderup n 8	52.1	0.2 1/0	0.4 1/1
S. Dahl n 8	84.6	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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Alverca

Alverca Goalkeeper

Alverca — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Matheus Mendes	9	90810 min	283.1 /90	91 /90	00 /90
Mateus Oliveira	1	9090 min	11 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Alverca — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Matheus Mendes n 8	90	3.2 7/6

Alverca Defensive

Alverca — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
I. James	9	86774 min	212.4 /90	80.9 /90	20.2 /90	333.8 /90	40.5 /90	00 /90
S. Baseya	7	90630 min	142 /90	101.4 /90	20.3 /90	446.3 /90	40.6 /90	00 /90
Y. Bojang	7	84591 min	40.6 /90	50.8 /90	40.6 /90	152.3 /90	40.6 /90	30.5 /90
Sergi Gómez	6	76458 min	61.2 /90	40.8 /90	10.2 /90	91.8 /90	71.4 /90	00 /90
I. James	2	90180 min	21 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90	21 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90
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Alverca — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Matheus Mendes n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
I. James n 8	85.5	0.5 4/0	0.1 1/0	—
Figueiredo n 8	78	1.7 6/3	1.9 6/4	—
D. Gui n 8	71.4	2 7/4	0.9 6/0	—
Vivaldo Semedo n 8	47.8	2.1 6/2	1.2 3/1	—
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Alverca — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
I. James n 8	85.5	2.6 7/7
Figueiredo n 8	78	1.9 7/4
D. Gui n 8	71.4	3.8 7/5
Vivaldo Semedo n 8	47.8	0.2 1/0
S. Baseya n 8	90	1.9 7/4
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Alverca Attacking

Alverca — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Figueiredo	9	78703 min	20.3 /90	00 /90	111.4 /90	50.6 /90	151.9 /90	151.9 /90
Vivaldo Semedo	8	48382 min	30.7 /90	00 /90	81.9 /90	40.9 /90	40.9 /90	20.5 /90
Chiquinho	7	80557 min	20.3 /90	20.3 /90	152.4 /90	50.8 /90	162.6 /90	121.9 /90
André Vidigal	7	42292 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	41.2 /90	10.3 /90	30.9 /90	10.3 /90
D. Camara	5	61305 min	30.9 /90	00 /90	103 /90	61.8 /90	10.3 /90	20.6 /90
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Alverca — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Matheus Mendes n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
I. James n 8	85.5	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
Figueiredo n 8	78	1.4 6/2	0.7 4/1
D. Gui n 8	71.4	1.1 5/2	0.3 2/0
Vivaldo Semedo n 8	47.8	1.9 5/2	0.9 4/0
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Alverca — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Alverca before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Matheus Mendes n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
I. James n 8	85.5	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
Figueiredo n 8	78	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
D. Gui n 8	71.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
Vivaldo Semedo n 8	47.8	0.7 3/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Benfica v Alverca — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

BenficaLWWWW

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

AlvercaWWWLL

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 2

Benfica 2 · 0 draws · Alverca 0 · 3 goals/game

2026-02-08 Benfica 2–1 Alverca
2025-08-31 Alverca 1–2 Benfica

League standing · 2026/27

Benfica#2 pos22 pts9 pl+18 GD

Alverca#8 pos11 pts9 pl0 GD

Goals per game

Benfica scored2.89

Alverca scored1.44

Benfica conceded0.89

Alverca conceded1.44

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Benfica v Alverca?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Benfica v Alverca is Home win.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Alverca?: In their last 2 meetings, Benfica won 2, Alverca won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Benfica and Alverca?: Recent form — Benfica 4W 0D 1L; Alverca 3W 0D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 29 Oct 2026, 00:03 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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