Estrela v Alverca result
The model’s pre-match pick
Estrela 2–2 Alverca — this Primeira Liga match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.
The result
Estrela and Alverca drew 2–2 at Estádio José Gomes in the Primeira Liga on Monday 25 August. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Estrela out-shot Alverca 19 to 6 and created the better chances, 2.63 xG to 1.17 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.
The goals
Alverca led 2–1 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Alverca: Cédric Nuozzi (37’, assisted by I. James) and Marko Milovanović (45’); Estrela: Fábio Ronaldo (45’, assisted by João Gastão) and Sidny Lopes Cabral (63’). Paulo Moreira (47’) and Kaiky Naves (62’) were sent off.
How it turned
Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s six key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Sidny Lopes Cabral’s goal on 63 minutes.
Discipline
R. Baixinho showed nine yellow cards and two reds — against 5.3 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Estrela: João Gastão (16’), Luan Patrick (21’), Robinho (75’) and Jovane Cabral (86’); Alverca: Kaiky Naves (23’), Marko Milovanović (44’), Kaiky Naves (62’), Sergi Gómez (67’) and Chiquinho (68’).
What it changes
Estrela stay 12th after this result (three league matches played).
Alverca move up from 16th to 14th (shared) (three league matches played).
Estrela are winless in their last six matches in all competitions. Alverca are winless in their last four matches in all competitions.
Who stood out
By TACTIX Impact for this match, Sidny Lopes Cabral (Estrela) 6.9, Fábio Ronaldo (Estrela) 5.8 and Cédric Nuozzi (Alverca) 5.8 led the match.
What the model said
The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call.
Next up
Estrela next host Casa Pia on 24 October 2026.
Alverca next host Arouca on 24 October 2026.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
Next for Estrela: Estrela v Casa Pia, Saturday 24 October — the preview. Next for Alverca: Alverca v Arouca, Saturday 24 October — the preview.
The numbers
- Result: Estrela 2–2 Alverca · Primeira Liga
- Venue: Estádio José Gomes · Amadora
- Referee: R. Baixinho
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Recent form: Estrela 0W 1D 4L · Alverca 2W 1D 2L
Estrela 2–2 Alverca (Primeira Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
The next free picks, by email
The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.
Match statistics & details
| Estrela | Alverca | |
|---|---|---|
| 56% | Possession | 44% |
| 2.63 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.17 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 7 | Shots off target | 3 |
| 6 | Blocked shots | 1 |
| 12 | Shots inside the box | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 24 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
| 0 | Saves | 4 |
| 301 | Passes | 241 |
| 78% | Pass accuracy | 68% |
Estrela player stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renan Ribeiro | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| S. Lopes Cabral | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7.9 |
| Bernardo Schappo | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7.3 |
| A. Chernev | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| Jovane Cabral | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | Y | 7.5 |
| A. Marcus | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| Luan Patrick | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Y | 6 |
| Fábio Ronaldo | 54 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.3 |
| Paulo Moreira | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | R | 5.5 |
| João Gastão | 45 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | Y | 6.9 |
| I. Stoica | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.3 |
| Kikas sub | 45 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 |
| Alan Godoy sub | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| Ryan sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6.9 |
| Robinho sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Y | 7.2 |
| Rodrigo Pinho sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 |
Alverca player stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Gomes | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.6 |
| Sergi Gómez | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Y | 5.9 |
| B. Meupiyou | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.2 |
| Zoubdi | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| Alexsandro Amorim | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.2 |
| I. James | 89 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.9 |
| Chiquinho | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | Y | 7.3 |
| M. Milovanović | 81 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Y | 7.2 |
| T. Mendes | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.6 |
| C. Nuozzi | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7.7 |
| Kaiky Naves | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | RY | 5.7 |
| J. Martínez sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.6 |
| Francisco Chissumba sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| S. Diarra sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 |
| D. Gui sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.9 |
| T. Leite sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.
Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Estrela v Alverca — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
The full post-match picture
Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.
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Frequently asked questions
- What was the model’s pick for Estrela v Alverca?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Estrela v Alverca was Over 2.5 goals.
- What is the recent form of Estrela and Alverca?
- Recent form — Estrela 0W 1D 4L; Alverca 2W 1D 2L.
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