Moreirense v Estrela prediction

Primeira Liga · Sat, 31 Oct 2026 15:30 GMT · Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Updated 28 Oct 2026, 22:03 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Moreirense · Estrela · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Moreirense v Estrela, Primeira Liga on Sat, 31 Oct 2026 15:30 GMT.

Free pick

Home or Away

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.4% of 4833 landed (95% range 76.2–78.5%); it had given them 74.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,735 of 2,341 times (74.1%), against an average rating of 73.3%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Moreirense host Estrela in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 31 October (kick-off 15:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Moreirense or Estrela (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

Form and the table

Eight of Moreirense’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in seven of Moreirense’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, Moreirense have three wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.57 points per game, scoring 1.29 and conceding 1.43. Moreirense have scored 11 goals, the ninth-fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Moreirense have conceded 16 goals, the sixth-most of the 18 clubs.

10 of Estrela’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in 10 of Estrela’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). Away from home, Estrela have two wins, three draws and three defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.13 points per game, scoring 1.75 and conceding 1.88. Estrela have scored 14 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Estrela have conceded 17 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Moreirense (10th) and Estrela (12th) are one point apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Moreirense the stronger side, 133 rating points above Estrela (Moreirense 1532, Estrela 1398, after at least 113 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Moreirense are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Estrela. The most recent meeting, on 2 May 2026, finished Moreirense 3–2 Estrela.

Team news

Predicted Moreirense XI (4-2-3-1): A. Ferreira, G. Batista, Kiko, D. Pinto, Maracás, N. John, G. Liberato, T. Andrade, M. Mendonça, K. Bondoso, L. Vonić — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Tiago Andrade (5.2 per match over seven appearances, two goals and one assist) and Guilherme Liberato (3.8 per match over seven appearances) have been Moreirense’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Moreirense (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Tiago Andrade averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 400 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last seven appearances. Guilherme Liberato averages 0.2 key passes per 90 over 570 minutes, with a key pass in one of the last seven appearances.

Predicted Estrela XI (4-2-3-1): L. Linck, S. Leković, R. Soares, M. Scholze, P. Luan, A. Marcus, L. Zvonarek, E. Doue, S. Serra, I. Stoica, L. Antonetti — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, A. Marcus (5.1 per match over nine appearances, four goals and one assist) and I. Stoica (4.5 per match over nine appearances, four goals and two assists) have been Estrela’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Estrela (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), A. Marcus averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 803 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last nine appearances. I. Stoica averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 613 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last nine appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sat, 31 Oct 2026 15:30 GMT · Primeira Liga · Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Model coverage: 232 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Moreirense 2 · draws 3 · Estrela 1 · 2.5 goals/game
Recent form: Moreirense 2W 1D 2L · Estrela 1W 1D 3L

Moreirense v Estrela (Primeira Liga): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 28 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.13 / 1.5

Goals

against 1.38 / 1.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

1.88 / 5.14

Corners

against 4.75 / 4.86 · 0 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

2.75 / 4.14

Shots on target

against 4.63 / 4.29 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

1.88 / 2

Cards

against 1.75 / 2.43 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

232

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 25 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Moreirense for / against	Line	Estrela for / against
Goals scored	1.13 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	2.5our book	1.5 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	1.88 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.14 for · 4.86 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	8 for · 15.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	14.57 for · 10 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	2.75 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.14 for · 4.29 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.38 for · 11.5 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.57 for · 12.14 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	1.88 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2 for · 2.43 against n 7 Last 5

Moreirense

Moreirense Goalkeeper

Moreirense — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
André Ferreira	9	91818 min	293.2 /90	151.7 /90	00 /90

Moreirense — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Moreirense before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
André Ferreira n 8	90	3.4 7/3

Moreirense Defensive

Moreirense — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Gilberto Batista	9	91818 min	121.3 /90	171.9 /90	80.9 /90	323.5 /90	70.8 /90	40.4 /90
Kiko	9	89805 min	192.1 /90	182 /90	40.4 /90	364 /90	101.1 /90	20.2 /90
Dinis Pinto	8	81650 min	101.4 /90	71 /90	10.1 /90	354.8 /90	101.4 /90	10.1 /90
Maracás	7	87610 min	81.2 /90	60.9 /90	81.2 /90	355.2 /90	30.4 /90	20.3 /90
Leandro Henrique Sousa Santos	3	69207 min	31.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90	125.2 /90	20.9 /90	10.4 /90
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Moreirense — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Moreirense before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Gilberto Batista n 8	90	0.8 4/1	0.1 1/0	—
André Ferreira n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
Kiko n 8	88.4	1.3 6/3	0.8 5/1	—
N. John n 8	72.6	1.1 6/1	1.4 5/4	—
Rodri Alonso n 8	38.8	2.6 5/3	1.7 4/1	—
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Moreirense — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Moreirense before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Gilberto Batista n 8	90	1 5/3
Kiko n 8	88.4	2.3 6/4
N. John n 8	72.6	2 7/5
Rodri Alonso n 8	38.8	1.2 3/1
Dinis Pinto n 8	81.3	1.4 6/2
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Moreirense Attacking

Moreirense — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Landerson	8	54430 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.2 /90	00 /90	10.2 /90	30.6 /90
Kiko Bondoso	8	46364 min	00 /90	10.2 /90	00 /90	00 /90	30.7 /90	10.2 /90
A. Duville-Parsemain	6	74442 min	10.2 /90	10.2 /90	61.2 /90	40.8 /90	30.6 /90	00 /90
L. Vonić	4	73291 min	10.3 /90	10.3 /90	41.2 /90	41.2 /90	20.6 /90	61.9 /90
Chipyoka Songa	1	2727 min	00 /90	00 /90	13.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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Moreirense — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Moreirense before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Gilberto Batista n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
André Ferreira n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Kiko n 8	88.4	0.5 4/0	0.1 1/0
N. John n 8	72.6	0.9 5/1	0.3 2/0
Rodri Alonso n 8	38.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Moreirense — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Moreirense before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
André Ferreira n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Gilberto Batista n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Kiko n 8	88.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
N. John n 8	72.6	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
Rodri Alonso n 8	38.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Estrela

Estrela Goalkeeper

Estrela — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Léo Linck	9	90810 min	252.8 /90	101.1 /90	00 /90

Estrela — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Léo Linck n 8	90	2.4 8/3

Estrela Defensive

Estrela — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Rafa Soares	9	87780 min	131.5 /90	50.6 /90	10.1 /90	182.1 /90	20.2 /90	00 /90
M. Scholze	9	73656 min	294 /90	81.1 /90	20.3 /90	395.4 /90	40.5 /90	30.4 /90
S. Leković	8	90720 min	81 /90	60.8 /90	40.5 /90	344.3 /90	70.9 /90	20.3 /90
Luan Patrick	6	90540 min	152.5 /90	50.8 /90	10.2 /90	203.3 /90	10.2 /90	10.2 /90
Jefferson Encada	5	29144 min	42.5 /90	21.3 /90	00 /90	148.8 /90	21.3 /90	10.6 /90
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Estrela — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Léo Linck n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
L. Antonetti n 8	89.3	1.9 8/4	1.5 7/3	—
A. Marcus n 8	89.3	1 6/2	1 4/2	—
Rafa Soares n 8	86.3	0.3 2/0	0 0/0	—
L. Zvonarek n 8	84.3	1.5 8/3	1.3 5/3	—
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Estrela — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
L. Antonetti n 8	89.3	1.4 5/3
A. Marcus n 8	89.3	1 6/1
Rafa Soares n 8	86.3	1.6 6/3
L. Zvonarek n 8	84.3	0.9 5/2
Eddy Doue n 8	79	1.4 6/3
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Estrela Attacking

Estrela — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
L. Antonetti	9	89803 min	40.4 /90	10.1 /90	222.5 /90	80.9 /90	50.6 /90	30.3 /90
A. Marcus	9	89803 min	40.4 /90	10.1 /90	182 /90	101.1 /90	141.6 /90	171.9 /90
L. Zvonarek	9	85764 min	00 /90	00 /90	101.2 /90	10.1 /90	91.1 /90	50.6 /90
Eddy Doue	9	80722 min	00 /90	30.4 /90	40.5 /90	20.2 /90	101.2 /90	121.5 /90
I. Stoica	9	68613 min	40.6 /90	20.3 /90	172.5 /90	60.9 /90	101.5 /90	91.3 /90
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Estrela — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Léo Linck n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Antonetti n 8	89.3	2.6 7/5	0.9 5/1
A. Marcus n 8	89.3	2 8/6	1.1 5/4
Rafa Soares n 8	86.3	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
L. Zvonarek n 8	84.3	1.2 5/3	0 0/0
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Estrela — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estrela before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Léo Linck n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Marcus n 8	89.3	0.5 3/1	0.1 1/0
L. Antonetti n 8	89.3	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
Rafa Soares n 8	86.3	0 0/0	0.3 1/1
L. Zvonarek n 8	84.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Moreirense v Estrela — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

MoreirenseWDLLW

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1 conceded per game

EstrelaDLLWL

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1 scored / 1.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Moreirense 2 · 3 draws · Estrela 1 · 2.5 goals/game

2026-05-02 Moreirense 3–2 Estrela
2025-12-20 Estrela 0–0 Moreirense
2025-03-02 Moreirense 1–1 Estrela
2024-09-28 Estrela 2–1 Moreirense
2024-04-07 Moreirense 2–2 Estrela
2023-11-11 Estrela 0–1 Moreirense

League standing · 2026/27

Moreirense#10 pos11 pts9 pl-5 GD

Estrela#12 pos10 pts9 pl-3 GD

Goals per game

Moreirense scored1.22

Estrela scored1.56

Moreirense conceded1.78

Estrela conceded1.89

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Moreirense v Estrela?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Moreirense v Estrela is Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Estrela?: In their last 6 meetings, Moreirense won 2, Estrela won 1 and there were 3 draws, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Moreirense and Estrela?: Recent form — Moreirense 2W 1D 2L; Estrela 1W 1D 3L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 28 Oct 2026, 22:03 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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