Águilas Doradas v Independiente Medellin prediction

Primera A · Sat, 14 Nov 2026 20:30 GMT · Estadio Cincuentenario

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 12:19 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Águilas Doradas · Independiente Medellin · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Draw the free pick for Águilas Doradas v Independiente Medellin, Primera A on Sat, 14 Nov 2026 20:30 GMT.

Free pick

Home or Draw

Best price: 1.44 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 76.7% of 1766 landed (95% range 74.7–78.6%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Predicted on 5 November 2026, before the fixture moved

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Águilas Doradas host Independiente Medellin in Primera A on Saturday 14 November (kick-off 20:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Águilas Doradas or the draw, a Bronze-tier call.

Form and the table

Five of Águilas Doradas’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (33%). Both teams scored in seven of Águilas Doradas’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, Águilas Doradas have three wins, three draws and no defeats in their last 6 home matches in all competitions — 2.00 points per game, scoring 1.67 and conceding 1.00. Águilas Doradas have scored 22 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026 so far, after 18 games). Águilas Doradas have conceded 21 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

11 of Independiente Medellin’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in nine of Independiente Medellin’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Independiente Medellin have three wins, one draw and four defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.25 points per game, scoring 1.63 and conceding 1.50. Independiente Medellin have scored 28 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026 so far, after 18 games). Independiente Medellin have conceded 25 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Águilas Doradas (10th) and Independiente Medellin (sixth) are four points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Águilas Doradas the stronger side, 34 rating points above Independiente Medellin (Águilas Doradas 1608, Independiente Medellin 1574, after at least 396 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Águilas Doradas are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Independiente Medellin. The most recent meeting, on 3 May 2026, finished Independiente Medellin 1–2 Águilas Doradas.

Team news

Predicted Águilas Doradas XI (4-2-3-1): J. Soto, A. Mosquera, J. García, J. Ontaneda, D. Lozano, I. Rojas, J. Mena, M. Ramirez, F. Lozano, A. Ricaurte, A. Vásquez — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, A. Ricaurte (6.2 per match over three appearances, two goals and one assist) and J. Ontaneda (3.9 per match over three appearances) have been Águilas Doradas’s most influential players 2026, all competitions.

Predicted Independiente Medellin XI (4-4-2): E. Chaux, E. Mena Perea, A. Simarra, L. Escorcia, F. Fabra, Y. Gonzalez, D. Moreno, H. Loboa, J. Montano, J. Medina, A. Martegani — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, A. Serna (3.8 per match over seven appearances, one goal and one assist) and F. Fydriszewski (3.2 per match over 10 appearances, four goals and one assist) have been Independiente Medellin’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Independiente Medellin (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), A. Serna averages 0.6 key passes per 90 over 435 minutes, with a key pass in two of the last seven appearances. F. Fydriszewski averages 1.8 shots per 90 over 887 minutes, with a shot in six of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sat, 14 Nov 2026 20:30 GMT · Primera A · Estadio Cincuentenario
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Águilas Doradas 2 · draws 3 · Independiente Medellin 1 · 1.83 goals/game
Recent form: Águilas Doradas 3W 0D 2L · Independiente Medellin 2W 0D 3L

Águilas Doradas v Independiente Medellin (Primera A): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 1.38

Goals

against 0.75 / 1.5 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

3.67 / 8.25

Corners

against 7 / 4.5 · 2 of the last 3 over 9.5

over 3 matches

3.67 / 4.5

Shots on target

against 4 / 4 · 1 of the last 3 over 8.5

over 3 matches

2.67 / 3.25

Cards

against 3 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 3 over 3.5

over 3 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 7 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 7 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Águilas Doradas for / against	Line	Independiente Medellin for / against
Goals scored	1.25 for · 0.75 against n 8 Last 5	2.5our book	1.38 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.67 for · 7 against n 3 Last 5	9.5standard	8.25 for · 4.5 against n 4 Last 5
Shots	11.33 for · 14.67 against n 3 Last 5	19.5standard	13.75 for · 10.25 against n 4 Last 5
Shots on target	3.67 for · 4 against n 3 Last 5	8.5standard	4.5 for · 4 against n 4 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.67 for · 9.67 against n 3 Last 5	21.5standard	12.5 for · 10.75 against n 4 Last 5
Cards shown	2.67 for · 3 against n 3 Last 5	3.5standard	3.25 for · 1.75 against n 4 Last 5

Águilas Doradas

Águilas Doradas Goalkeeper

Águilas Doradas — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Jorge Soto	3	90270 min	113.7 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90

Águilas Doradas — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Águilas Doradas before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Jorge Soto n 3	90	3.7 2/2

Águilas Doradas Defensive

Águilas Doradas — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Andrés Mosquera	3	90270 min	20.7 /90	10.3 /90	20.7 /90	72.3 /90	51.7 /90	10.3 /90
J. García	3	89268 min	10.3 /90	20.7 /90	20.7 /90	103.4 /90	20.7 /90	20.7 /90
J. Ontaneda	3	83250 min	134.7 /90	20.7 /90	20.7 /90	165.8 /90	41.4 /90	00 /90
D. Lozano	2	65129 min	21.4 /90	00 /90	00 /90	53.5 /90	10.7 /90	10.7 /90
F. Lozano	3	90270 min	31 /90	20.7 /90	20.7 /90	93 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
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Águilas Doradas — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Águilas Doradas before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Andrés Mosquera n 3	90	1.7 3/1	0.3 1/0	—
F. Lozano n 3	90	0.3 1/0	0.7 2/0	—
Jorge Soto n 3	90	0 0/0	0.3 1/0	—
J. García n 3	89.3	0.7 2/0	1 3/0	—
I. Rojas n 3	88.7	0.3 1/0	0.7 2/0	—
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Águilas Doradas — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Águilas Doradas before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
F. Lozano n 3	90	1 2/1
Andrés Mosquera n 3	90	0.7 1/1
J. García n 3	89.3	0.3 1/0
I. Rojas n 3	88.7	2.4 3/2
A. Ricaurte n 3	86	1 1/1
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Águilas Doradas Attacking

Águilas Doradas — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Anthony Vásquez	3	85255 min	00 /90	00 /90	51.8 /90	31.1 /90	20.7 /90	10.4 /90
E. Arizalas	3	3192 min	00 /90	00 /90	32.9 /90	11 /90	32.9 /90	43.9 /90
F. Lozano	3	90270 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	10.3 /90
I. Rojas	3	89266 min	00 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90	31 /90	00 /90
A. Ricaurte	3	86258 min	20.7 /90	10.3 /90	41.4 /90	20.7 /90	113.8 /90	31 /90
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Águilas Doradas — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Águilas Doradas before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Andrés Mosquera n 3	90	1.3 2/2	0.7 2/0
F. Lozano n 3	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Jorge Soto n 3	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. García n 3	89.3	0.3 1/0	0.3 1/0
I. Rojas n 3	88.7	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Águilas Doradas — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Águilas Doradas before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Andrés Mosquera n 3	90	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
F. Lozano n 3	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Jorge Soto n 3	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. García n 3	89.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
I. Rojas n 3	88.7	0 0/0	0.3 1/0
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Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin Goalkeeper

Independiente Medellin — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
E. Chaux	9	90810 min	313.4 /90	121.3 /90	00 /90
S. Ichazo	6	93555 min	182.9 /90	81.3 /90	00 /90

Independiente Medellin — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Independiente Medellin before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
E. Chaux n 8	90	3.5 7/5
S. Ichazo n 6	92.5	2.9 6/4

Independiente Medellin Defensive

Independiente Medellin — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
E. Mena Perea	15	721087 min	312.6 /90	90.7 /90	20.2 /90	574.7 /90	40.3 /90	10.1 /90
F. Fabra	13	831077 min	211.8 /90	141.2 /90	10.1 /90	484 /90	151.3 /90	30.3 /90
J. Ortiz	9	92825 min	111.2 /90	60.7 /90	70.8 /90	283.1 /90	91 /90	20.2 /90
K. Mantilla	7	92645 min	91.3 /90	101.4 /90	40.6 /90	314.3 /90	50.7 /90	10.1 /90
L. Chaverra	7	85596 min	132 /90	152.3 /90	40.6 /90	223.3 /90	50.8 /90	20.3 /90
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Independiente Medellin — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Independiente Medellin before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
E. Mena Perea n 8	83	0.3 2/0	0.5 2/2	—
F. Fabra n 8	85.6	0.8 4/1	0.8 3/2	—
H. Loboa n 8	73.9	2.3 7/6	0.9 4/2	—
D. Moreno n 8	80	2.4 6/6	0.6 3/1	—
J. Montano n 8	60	0.8 4/0	0.9 4/1	—
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Independiente Medellin — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Independiente Medellin before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
E. Mena Perea n 8	83	3.3 8/7
F. Fabra n 8	85.6	1.6 6/3
H. Loboa n 8	73.9	2.1 8/5
D. Moreno n 8	80	2 6/4
J. Montano n 8	60	2.1 6/3
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Independiente Medellin Attacking

Independiente Medellin — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
F. Fydriszewski	9	90810 min	40.4 /90	10.1 /90	161.8 /90	50.6 /90	91 /90	40.4 /90
Jeison Medina	6	66396 min	10.2 /90	10.2 /90	40.9 /90	20.5 /90	40.9 /90	20.5 /90
F. Chaverra	6	62369 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	163.9 /90	61.5 /90	82 /90	51.2 /90
E. Larrosa	4	56223 min	10.4 /90	00 /90	52 /90	20.8 /90	31.2 /90	20.8 /90
C. Lucumi	2	3774 min	00 /90	11.2 /90	22.4 /90	00 /90	22.4 /90	00 /90
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Independiente Medellin — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Independiente Medellin before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
E. Mena Perea n 8	83	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
F. Fabra n 8	85.6	0.5 4/0	0.3 2/0
H. Loboa n 8	73.9	0.6 3/1	0.5 3/0
D. Moreno n 8	80	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
J. Montano n 8	60	1.1 4/2	0.4 1/1
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Independiente Medellin — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Independiente Medellin before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
E. Mena Perea n 8	83	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
F. Fabra n 8	85.6	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
H. Loboa n 8	73.9	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
D. Moreno n 8	80	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Montano n 8	60	0.4 1/1	0.2 1/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Águilas Doradas v Independiente Medellin — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Águilas DoradasWLWWL

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1 scored / 0.6 conceded per game

Independiente MedellinLLLWW

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Águilas Doradas 2 · 3 draws · Independiente Medellin 1 · 1.83 goals/game

2026-05-03 Independiente Medellin 1–2 Águilas Doradas
2025-10-08 Águilas Doradas 2–1 Independiente Medellin
2025-03-30 Independiente Medellin 0–0 Águilas Doradas
2024-09-15 Águilas Doradas 1–1 Independiente Medellin
2024-03-03 Independiente Medellin 1–0 Águilas Doradas
2023-08-26 Águilas Doradas 1–1 Independiente Medellin

League standing · 2026

Águilas Doradas#10 pos25 pts18 pl+1 GD

Independiente Medellin#6 pos29 pts18 pl+3 GD

Goals per game

Águilas Doradas scored1.22

Independiente Medellin scored1.56

Águilas Doradas conceded1.17

Independiente Medellin conceded1.39

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Águilas Doradas v Independiente Medellin?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Águilas Doradas v Independiente Medellin is Home or Draw (best price 1.44 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Águilas Doradas and Independiente Medellin?: In their last 6 meetings, Águilas Doradas won 2, Independiente Medellin won 1 and there were 3 draws, averaging 1.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Águilas Doradas and Independiente Medellin?: Recent form — Águilas Doradas 3W 0D 2L; Independiente Medellin 2W 0D 3L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 12:19 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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