Atletico Paranaense v Bahia result

Full-time · Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Bahia

Serie A – Brazil · Sun, 20 Sep 2026 23:30 BST · Arena da Baixada

Updated 14 Oct 2026, 14:49 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Atletico Paranaense · Bahia · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Bahia — Atletico Paranaense won this Serie A – Brazil match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.90 at Bet365

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 648 landed (95% range 61.8–69.1%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Atletico Paranaense beat Bahia 2–1 at Arena da Baixada in Serie A – Brazil on Sunday 20 September. It is Atletico Paranaense’s first win over Bahia since 16 July 2023, after four meetings without one (the 6 prior meetings TACTIX holds).

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Atletico Paranaense: L. Esquivel (16’, assisted by K. A. Calderon Vargas) and Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto (69’, assisted by K. A. Calderon Vargas); Bahia: Erick Pulga (26’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto’s goal on 69 minutes.

Discipline

Anderson Daronco, Brazil showed six yellow cards — against 5.1 yellows a game across the last 22 matches refereed (this competition).

What it changes

Atletico Paranaense stay third after this result (28 league matches played). Atletico Paranaense have scored in seven consecutive matches.

Bahia move down from fourth to fifth (28 league matches played). Bahia have scored in six consecutive matches.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, L. Esquivel (Atletico Paranaense) 8.4, K. A. Calderon Vargas (Atletico Paranaense) 6.9 and Marcos Victor (Bahia) 5.4 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Atletico Paranaense next host Palmeiras on 17 October 2026.

Bahia next host Flamengo on 18 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Atletico Paranaense: Atletico Paranaense v Palmeiras, Saturday 17 October — the preview. Next for Bahia: Bahia v Flamengo, Sunday 18 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Bahia · Serie A – Brazil
Venue: Arena da Baixada · Curitiba, Paraná
Referee: Anderson Daronco, Brazil
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Atletico Paranaense 2 · draws 2 · Bahia 2 · 2.67 goals/game
Recent form: Atletico Paranaense 1W 3D 1L · Bahia 4W 1D 0L

Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Bahia (Serie A – Brazil): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 14 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.88 / 1.75

Goals

against 2 / 1.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.5 / 5.25

Corners

against 6.63 / 5.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

5.63 / 4.63

Shots on target

against 5.38 / 4.63 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2 / 2.13

Cards

against 2.38 / 2.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

5.14 yellows

Referee · Anderson Daronco, Brazil

2.59 home / 2.55 away

over 22 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 15 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 15 September 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Atletico Paranaense for / against	Line	Bahia for / against
Goals scored	1.88 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5	2.5our book	1.75 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.5 for · 6.63 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.25 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	14.13 for · 18.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	15.25 for · 14.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5.63 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.63 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	14.13 for · 11.38 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12.88 for · 13 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.13 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Anderson Daronco, Brazil — 5.14 yellow cards a game, 0.32 red cards, 27.64 fouls over 22 matches (2.59 to the home side, 2.55 to the away side).

Home 2.59Away 2.55

Atletico Paranaense

Atletico Paranaense — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Renan Peixoto n 8	32.9	5.5 6/4	0.7 2/0	—
Renan Peixoto n 8	18.4	3.1 5/0	2.4 3/1	—
K. Viveros n 8	87.3	2.7 7/6	3 8/7	—
Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto n 4	8.8	2.6 1/0	0 0/0	—
Felipinho n 8	66.6	1.9 6/4	0.3 2/0	—

Atletico Paranaense — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto n 4	8.8	5.1 2/0	2.6 1/0
K. Viveros n 8	87.3	3.1 8/8	2.1 7/5
Renan Peixoto n 8	32.9	3.1 3/2	2.7 3/2
João Cruz n 8	65.5	1.9 6/5	0.9 4/1
Leozinho n 8	59.8	1.7 5/3	0.2 1/0

Atletico Paranaense — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
K. Viveros n 8	87.3	0.8 4/2	0.3 2/0
K. A. Calderon Vargas n 8	39.8	0.3 1/0	0.6 2/0
João Cruz n 8	65.5	0.5 3/0	0.3 2/0
Leozinho n 8	59.8	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
Dudu Kogitzki n 8	25.3	0.4 1/0	0 0/0

Atletico Paranaense — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Leonardo Derik n 8	50.4	2.7 5/3
L. Esquivel n 8	72.5	2.5 7/5
Dantas n 7	76.4	2.4 6/6
Jadson n 8	79.6	2.3 7/5
Felipinho n 8	66.6	2.2 5/2

Atletico Paranaense — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Santos n 8	91.8	3.3 7/6
Mycael n 8	90.8	2.9 8/4

Bahia

Bahia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Michel Araújo n 8	19.5	4 5/1	1.7 2/1	—
Jean Lucas n 8	52.3	2.2 6/3	0.9 3/1	—
David Martins n 3	14	2.1 1/0	0 0/0	—
Nicolás Acevedo n 8	88	2 7/6	1.4 6/4	—
Caio Alexandre n 8	33.6	2 4/2	1.7 3/2	—

Bahia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Ruan Pablo n 8	11.8	3.8 3/1	1.9 2/0
Erick Pulga n 8	81.4	2.4 6/6	1 4/2
Alejo Véliz n 8	86.8	2.3 7/6	0.8 5/1
Rodrigo Nestor n 8	85.4	2.1 7/4	0.7 4/1
Mateo Sanabria n 8	32.1	2.1 5/1	0.4 1/0

Bahia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Jean Lucas n 8	52.3	0.4 2/0	0.2 1/0
Michel Araújo n 8	19.5	0 0/0	0.6 1/0
Alejo Véliz n 8	86.8	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
Erick n 8	74	0.5 3/0	0 0/0
Everton Ribeiro n 8	45	0 0/0	0.5 2/0

Bahia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Ruan Pablo n 8	11.8	2.9 2/1
Nicolás Acevedo n 8	88	2.3 8/5
Erick n 8	74	2.3 4/3
Marcos Victor n 8	57.5	2.2 4/4
Ademir n 8	47	2.2 6/2

Bahia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 15 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Ronaldo n 8	90.9	3.5 5/3

The next free picks, by email

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Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Atletico Paranaense		Bahia
60%	Possession	40%
11	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	3
4	Shots off target	5
1	Blocked shots	2
8	Shots inside the box	8
6	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
8	Fouls	13
3	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Saves	4
495	Passes	513

Atletico Paranaense player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Mycael	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
Stiven Mendoza	90	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	6.5
Luiz Gustavo	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
Jadson	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7.1
L. Esquivel	90	1	0	1	1	2	4	0	8.2
Dantas	90	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	6.7
Arthur Dias	90	0	0	0	0	0	4	Y	6.6
Gilberto	80	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.1
K. A. Calderon Vargas	79	0	2	1	1	3	0	0	8.1
F. Aguirre	45	0	0	1	1	1	0	Y	6.2
Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto	45	1	0	1	1	0	0	Y	7.5
Leozinho	45	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6
Dudu Kogitzki	45	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.2
B. Zapelli	11	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.4
Gilberto Junior	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.4

Bahia player stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Marcos Victor	90	0	0	0	1	4	0	6.4
Luciano Juba	90	0	0	0	1	2	0	6.8
Kanu	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
Erick Pulga	90	1	1	1	0	0	0	7.6
David Duarte	90	0	2	0	0	1	0	6.8
Ronaldo	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.1
Alejo Véliz	85	0	2	0	1	0	0	6.3
Rodrigo Nestor	85	0	2	1	3	2	Y	6.9
Nicolás Acevedo	73	0	0	0	0	3	Y	5.9
Erick	64	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.1
Ademir	64	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.1
Jean Lucas	26	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Çağatay Yılmaz	26	0	0	0	0	2	Y	6.2
Caio Alexandre	17	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
Everaldo	5	0	2	1	0	0	0	6.3
Everton Ribeiro	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	6

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Atletico Paranaense v Bahia — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Atletico ParanaenseDWDLD

Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 2.2 scored / 2.4 conceded per game

BahiaDWWWW

Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2.6 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Atletico Paranaense 2 · 2 draws · Bahia 2 · 2.67 goals/game

2026-04-01 Bahia 3–0 Atletico Paranaense
2024-11-24 Bahia 1–1 Atletico Paranaense
2024-07-10 Atletico Paranaense 1–3 Bahia
2023-11-12 Bahia 1–1 Atletico Paranaense
2023-07-16 Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Bahia
2022-07-12 Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Bahia

League standing · 2026

Atletico Paranaense#3 pos53 pts30 pl+14 GD

Bahia#5 pos49 pts30 pl+8 GD

Goals per game

Atletico Paranaense scored1.63

Bahia scored1.47

Atletico Paranaense conceded1.17

Bahia conceded1.2

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Atletico Paranaense v Bahia was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.90 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Bahia?: In their last 6 meetings, Atletico Paranaense won 2, Bahia won 2 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Atletico Paranaense and Bahia?: Recent form — Atletico Paranaense 1W 3D 1L; Bahia 4W 1D 0L.

Today’s boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 14 Oct 2026, 14:49 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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