Gremio v Atletico Paranaense prediction

Serie A – Brazil · Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:30 GMT · Arena do Grêmio

Updated 29 Oct 2026, 04:03 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Gremio · Atletico Paranaense · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Gremio v Atletico Paranaense, Serie A – Brazil on Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:30 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.93 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67% of 581 landed (95% range 63–70.7%); it had given them 76.4% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 478 of 727 times (65.7%), against an average rating of 68.1%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Gremio host Atletico Paranaense in Serie A – Brazil on Friday 30 October (kick-off 00:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

Form and the table

Seven of Gremio’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in eight of Gremio’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Gremio have four wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.75 points per game, scoring 1.63 and conceding 1.25. Gremio have scored 35 goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Gremio have conceded 44 goals, the 10th-most of the 20 clubs.

Eight of Atletico Paranaense’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in nine of Atletico Paranaense’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Atletico Paranaense have three wins, three draws and two defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.50 points per game, scoring 1.75 and conceding 1.75. Atletico Paranaense have scored 50 goals, the fifth-most of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Atletico Paranaense have conceded 38 goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Gremio (17th) and Atletico Paranaense (fourth) are 20 points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Atletico Paranaense the stronger side, 192 rating points above Gremio (Atletico Paranaense 1652, Gremio 1459, after at least 336 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Gremio are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Atletico Paranaense. The most recent meeting, on 2 May 2026, finished Atletico Paranaense 0–0 Gremio.

Team news

Gremio have five names on the availability list: B. G. Joao Pedro (out, Injury), Danilo Barbosa (out, Injury), J. Cabral (out, Inactive), J. Nardoni (out, Inactive) and Diego Caito (doubtful, Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-29. By TACTIX Impact, Cristian Pavón (4.2 per match over 41 appearances, five goals and five assists) and Marlon (3.8 per match over 18 appearances, one goal and one assist) have been Gremio’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Gremio (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Cristian Pavón averages 1.8 tackles per 90 over 3178 minutes, with a tackle in five of the last 10 appearances. Marlon averages 3.3 tackles per 90 over 1525 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Atletico Paranaense have nine names on the availability list: Arthur Dias (out, Inactive), C. Teran (out, Inactive), Claudinho (out, Injury), Dantas (out, Inactive), G. Benavidez (out, Muscle Injury), Gilberto (out, Yellow Cards) and three more — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-29. By TACTIX Impact, K. Viveros (4.4 per match over 34 appearances, 21 goals and four assists) and L. Esquivel (4.1 per match over 24 appearances, two goals and five assists) have been Atletico Paranaense’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Atletico Paranaense (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), K. Viveros averages 2.3 shots per 90 over 3159 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances. L. Esquivel averages 2.6 tackles per 90 over 1956 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:30 GMT · Serie A – Brazil · Arena do Grêmio
Referee: Alex Gomes Stefano
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Gremio 3 · draws 1 · Atletico Paranaense 2 · 2.67 goals/game
Recent form: Gremio 1W 3D 1L · Atletico Paranaense 2W 2D 1L

Gremio v Atletico Paranaense (Serie A – Brazil): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 29 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 2

Goals

against 1.5 / 2 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.75

over 8 matches

4.63 / 7.13

Corners

against 6.38 / 4.25 · 5 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.63 / 6.25

Shots on target

against 6.25 / 5.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.88 / 2.25

Cards

against 2.63 / 2.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 26 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 26 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Gremio for / against	Line	Atletico Paranaense for / against
Goals scored	1 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5	2.75our book	2 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.63 for · 6.38 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	7.13 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	13.5 for · 17.5 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	17 for · 14.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.63 for · 6.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	6.25 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	15 for · 14.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	14.25 for · 12 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.88 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.25 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5

Gremio

Gremio Goalkeeper

Gremio — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Weverton	43	923941 min	1353.1 /90	421 /90	20 /90
Gabriel Grando	2	96192 min	73.3 /90	20.9 /90	00 /90
Thiago Beltrame	1	7575 min	56 /90	33.6 /90	00 /90

Gremio — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gremio before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Weverton n 8	90	4.9 8/6

Gremio Defensive

Gremio — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Cristian Pavón	41	783178 min	621.8 /90	471.3 /90	50.1 /90	1755 /90	230.7 /90	100.3 /90
Gustavo Martins	30	822446 min	381.4 /90	351.3 /90	150.6 /90	1395.1 /90	281 /90	80.3 /90
Pedro Gabriel	21	791664 min	331.8 /90	130.7 /90	50.3 /90	623.4 /90	221.2 /90	70.4 /90
Viery	20	921839 min	391.9 /90	120.6 /90	180.9 /90	1055.1 /90	371.8 /90	60.3 /90
Marlon	18	851525 min	563.3 /90	150.9 /90	70.4 /90	985.8 /90	201.2 /90	40.2 /90
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Gremio — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gremio before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Weverton n 8	90	0 0/0	0.6 3/2	—
Cristian Pavón n 8	71.8	0.9 5/1	0.9 3/2	—
Carlos Vinícius n 8	82.6	1.1 6/1	1.2 5/3	—
F. Amuzu n 8	71.4	1.1 4/3	2.7 7/4	—
José Enamorado n 8	31.1	0.7 2/0	5.1 7/4	—
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Gremio — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gremio before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Cristian Pavón n 8	71.8	1.1 4/2
Carlos Vinícius n 8	82.6	0 0/0
F. Amuzu n 8	71.4	0.2 1/0
José Enamorado n 8	31.1	1.1 3/0
Erick Noriega n 8	73.3	1.5 5/3
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Gremio Attacking

Gremio — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Carlos Vinícius	40	793167 min	160.5 /90	10 /90	601.7 /90	391.1 /90	90.3 /90	70.2 /90
José Enamorado	35	471636 min	00 /90	40.2 /90	281.5 /90	100.6 /90	261.4 /90	351.9 /90
Tetê	31	531632 min	30.2 /90	10.1 /90	422.3 /90	201.1 /90	321.8 /90	412.3 /90
Martin Braithwaite	29	491418 min	40.3 /90	10.1 /90	251.6 /90	100.6 /90	151 /90	60.4 /90
Gabriel Mec	26	501307 min	30.2 /90	10.1 /90	221.5 /90	90.6 /90	171.2 /90	433 /90
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Gremio — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gremio before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Weverton n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Cristian Pavón n 8	71.8	1.7 6/3	1.1 4/2
Carlos Vinícius n 8	82.6	1.2 6/2	0.5 4/0
F. Amuzu n 8	71.4	1.9 6/2	0.5 2/1
José Enamorado n 8	31.1	2.9 4/2	0.7 1/1
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Gremio — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gremio before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Weverton n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Cristian Pavón n 8	71.8	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
Carlos Vinícius n 8	82.6	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
F. Amuzu n 8	71.4	0 0/0	0.5 2/1
José Enamorado n 8	31.1	0 0/0	0.4 1/0
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Atletico Paranaense

Atletico Paranaense Goalkeeper

Atletico Paranaense — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Santos	27	932506 min	712.5 /90	291 /90	00 /90
Mycael	8	91726 min	263.2 /90	70.9 /90	10.1 /90

Atletico Paranaense — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico Paranaense before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Santos n 8	91.8	3.3 7/6
Mycael n 8	90.8	3.2 7/4

Atletico Paranaense Defensive

Atletico Paranaense — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Arthur Dias	32	872778 min	391.3 /90	421.4 /90	190.6 /90	963.1 /90	311 /90	90.3 /90
F. Aguirre	28	872427 min	240.9 /90	421.6 /90	210.8 /90	1033.8 /90	371.4 /90	40.1 /90
L. Esquivel	23	811862 min	552.7 /90	150.7 /90	90.4 /90	1075.2 /90	351.7 /90	10 /90
C. Teran	17	721222 min	171.3 /90	171.3 /90	90.7 /90	493.6 /90	120.9 /90	00 /90
Leonardo Derik	12	54647 min	182.5 /90	71 /90	30.4 /90	385.3 /90	40.6 /90	00 /90
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Atletico Paranaense — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico Paranaense before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Stiven Mendoza n 8	89.9	0.3 2/0	0.6 4/1	—
K. Viveros n 8	86.1	2.9 8/7	3.4 8/7	—
Arthur Dias n 8	78.8	1 5/1	0.7 3/1	—
Luiz Gustavo n 8	86.8	1.8 6/4	0.8 3/1	—
F. Aguirre n 8	83.5	1.2 6/3	0.4 3/0	—
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Atletico Paranaense — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico Paranaense before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Stiven Mendoza n 8	89.9	1.4 6/3
K. Viveros n 8	86.1	0.3 2/0
Arthur Dias n 8	78.8	1.3 4/2
Luiz Gustavo n 8	86.8	1 5/2
F. Aguirre n 8	83.5	0.5 3/1
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Atletico Paranaense Attacking

Atletico Paranaense — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
K. Viveros	33	912996 min	210.6 /90	40.1 /90	752.3 /90	521.6 /90	250.8 /90	190.6 /90
Leozinho	19	541024 min	50.4 /90	10.1 /90	272.4 /90	121.1 /90	201.8 /90	111 /90
Julimar	13	57735 min	30.4 /90	10.1 /90	121.5 /90	60.7 /90	101.2 /90	40.5 /90
K. A. Calderon Vargas	9	44397 min	20.5 /90	30.7 /90	61.4 /90	30.7 /90	122.7 /90	61.4 /90
Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto	3	35106 min	10.8 /90	00 /90	43.4 /90	21.7 /90	10.8 /90	00 /90
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Atletico Paranaense — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico Paranaense before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Stiven Mendoza n 8	89.9	1.4 7/3	0.4 3/0
K. Viveros n 8	86.1	2.4 7/6	2 7/6
Arthur Dias n 8	78.8	1 5/1	0.4 3/0
Luiz Gustavo n 8	86.8	1.4 6/5	0.8 4/2
F. Aguirre n 8	83.5	0.7 4/1	0.3 2/0
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Atletico Paranaense — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico Paranaense before kick-off, to 26 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Stiven Mendoza n 8	89.9	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
K. Viveros n 8	86.1	0.9 5/2	0 0/0
Arthur Dias n 8	78.8	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Luiz Gustavo n 8	86.8	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
F. Aguirre n 8	83.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Gremio v Atletico Paranaense — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

GremioDDDLW

Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 1 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Atletico ParanaenseWDWLD

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Gremio 3 · 1 draw · Atletico Paranaense 2 · 2.67 goals/game

2026-05-02 Atletico Paranaense 0–0 Gremio
2024-08-04 Atletico Paranaense 0–2 Gremio
2024-04-17 Gremio 2–0 Atletico Paranaense
2023-10-18 Gremio 1–2 Atletico Paranaense
2023-05-27 Atletico Paranaense 1–2 Gremio
2021-09-26 Atletico Paranaense 4–2 Gremio

League standing · 2026

Gremio#17 pos34 pts32 pl-9 GD

Atletico Paranaense#4 pos54 pts32 pl+12 GD

Goals per game

Gremio scored1.09

Atletico Paranaense scored1.56

Gremio conceded1.38

Atletico Paranaense conceded1.19

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Gremio v Atletico Paranaense?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Gremio v Atletico Paranaense is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.93 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Atletico Paranaense?: In their last 6 meetings, Gremio won 3, Atletico Paranaense won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Gremio and Atletico Paranaense?: Recent form — Gremio 1W 3D 1L; Atletico Paranaense 2W 2D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 29 Oct 2026, 04:03 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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