Sao Paulo v Corinthians prediction

Serie A – Brazil · Thu, 05 Nov 2026 00:30 GMT · Estadio Do MorumBIS

Updated 29 Oct 2026, 03:06 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Sao Paulo · Corinthians · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Sao Paulo v Corinthians, Serie A – Brazil on Thu, 05 Nov 2026 00:30 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67% of 581 landed (95% range 63–70.7%); it had given them 76.4% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 478 of 727 times (65.7%), against an average rating of 68.1%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Sao Paulo host Corinthians in Serie A – Brazil on Thursday 5 November (kick-off 00:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Corinthians are winless in their last 11 matches in all competitions. Corinthians have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Five of Sao Paulo’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (33%). Both teams scored in eight of Sao Paulo’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Sao Paulo have six wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 9 home matches in all competitions — 2.22 points per game, scoring 1.56 and conceding 0.78. Sao Paulo have scored 37 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Sao Paulo have conceded 36 goals, the third-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Eight of Corinthians’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in 10 of Corinthians’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). Away from home, Corinthians have one win, two draws and five defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 0.63 points per game, scoring 1.13 and conceding 1.75. Corinthians have scored 34 goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Corinthians have conceded 42 goals, the 10th-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Sao Paulo (ninth) and Corinthians (18th) are 10 points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Sao Paulo the stronger side, 173 rating points above Corinthians (Sao Paulo 1577, Corinthians 1404, after at least 374 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 10 May 2026, finished Corinthians 3–2 Sao Paulo.

Team news

Predicted Sao Paulo XI (3-4-2-1): Rafael, R. Arboleda, Newton, Sabino, P. Lima, I. Borduchi, M. Antônio, D. Bobadilla, D. Ferreira, P. Maia, J. Calleri — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Domingos Duarte (4.0 per match over eight appearances, one goal) and Pedro Lima (4.0 per match over seven appearances, one goal and one assist) have been Sao Paulo’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Sao Paulo (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Domingos Duarte averages 1.7 tackles per 90 over 676 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last eight appearances. Pedro Lima averages 1.3 key passes per 90 over 622 minutes, with a key pass in three of the last nine appearances.

Predicted Corinthians XI (4-2-3-1): H. Souza, Matheuzinho, G. Henrique, M. Bidu, F. Angileri, B. Bidon, R. Garro, Andre, Allan, Dieguinho, Y. Alberto — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Matheus Bidu (3.7 per match over 38 appearances, four goals and two assists) and Rodrigo Garro (3.5 per match over 42 appearances, three goals and 12 assists) have been Corinthians’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Corinthians (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Matheus Bidu averages 1.7 tackles per 90 over 3209 minutes, with a tackle in six of the last 10 appearances. Rodrigo Garro averages 2.6 key passes per 90 over 3117 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Thu, 05 Nov 2026 00:30 GMT · Serie A – Brazil · Estadio Do MorumBIS
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Sao Paulo 3 · draws 1 · Corinthians 2 · 3.67 goals/game
Recent form: Sao Paulo 2W 1D 2L · Corinthians 0W 1D 4L

Sao Paulo v Corinthians (Serie A – Brazil): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 29 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.13 / 1

Goals

against 1.25 / 2.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 2

over 8 matches

7 / 5.25

Corners

against 4.13 / 5.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.25 / 4.13

Shots on target

against 3.38 / 6.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.13 / 3.13

Cards

against 2.38 / 2.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 29 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 29 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Sao Paulo for / against	Line	Corinthians for / against
Goals scored	1.13 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5	2our book	1 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	7 for · 4.13 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.25 for · 5.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	14.75 for · 13.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	13.25 for · 16.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.25 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.13 for · 6.5 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	13.63 for · 13 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12.63 for · 17 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.13 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	3.13 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5

Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo Goalkeeper

Sao Paulo — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Rafael	39	923569 min	882.2 /90	330.8 /90	00 /90
Carlos Coronel	5	90450 min	204 /90	40.8 /90	00 /90

Sao Paulo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sao Paulo before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Rafael n 8	90.9	1.4 3/1

Sao Paulo Defensive

Sao Paulo — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Sabino	28	822309 min	501.9 /90	341.3 /90	200.8 /90	1345.2 /90	311.2 /90	30.1 /90
Lucas Ramon	28	772144 min	421.8 /90	301.3 /90	00 /90	1275.3 /90	241 /90	10 /90
Wendell	24	681643 min	351.9 /90	160.9 /90	30.2 /90	663.6 /90	432.4 /90	50.3 /90
R. Arboleda	20	871734 min	382 /90	170.9 /90	50.3 /90	944.9 /90	110.6 /90	10.1 /90
Alan Javier Franco	19	851618 min	160.9 /90	140.8 /90	170.9 /90	623.4 /90	140.8 /90	30.2 /90
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Sao Paulo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sao Paulo before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Rafael n 8	90.9	0 0/0	0.2 2/0	—
Danielzinho n 8	50.6	1.8 4/3	0.7 3/0	—
Jonathan Calleri n 8	71.3	1.1 5/1	2.4 7/5	—
Luciano n 8	74.8	0.8 4/1	2.4 7/5	—
Artur n 8	77.8	0.3 1/1	1.7 7/4	—
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Sao Paulo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sao Paulo before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Danielzinho n 8	50.6	2.4 4/3
Jonathan Calleri n 8	71.3	0.9 4/1
Luciano n 8	74.8	0.6 3/1
Artur n 8	77.8	1.2 5/3
Marcos Antônio n 8	72.5	1.4 5/2
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Sao Paulo Attacking

Sao Paulo — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Jonathan Calleri	34	822791 min	110.4 /90	40.1 /90	521.7 /90	220.7 /90	311 /90	140.5 /90
Luciano	33	742458 min	130.5 /90	20.1 /90	592.2 /90	240.9 /90	331.2 /90	70.3 /90
Ferreirinha	26	451164 min	40.3 /90	10.1 /90	251.9 /90	131 /90	221.7 /90	372.9 /90
Andre Silva	17	47804 min	00 /90	10.1 /90	91 /90	50.6 /90	91 /90	50.6 /90
Lucas Moura	10	53526 min	20.3 /90	10.2 /90	111.9 /90	71.2 /90	81.4 /90	61 /90
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Sao Paulo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sao Paulo before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Rafael n 8	90.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
Danielzinho n 8	50.6	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
Jonathan Calleri n 8	71.3	1.9 5/4	0.6 3/1
Luciano n 8	74.8	3 8/7	0.9 5/1
Artur n 8	77.8	2.5 6/6	1.2 4/3
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Sao Paulo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sao Paulo before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Rafael n 8	90.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
Danielzinho n 8	50.6	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
Jonathan Calleri n 8	71.3	0.5 2/1	0.2 1/0
Luciano n 8	74.8	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
Artur n 8	77.8	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
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Corinthians

Corinthians Goalkeeper

Corinthians — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Hugo Souza	41	923766 min	1102.6 /90	390.9 /90	20 /90
Kauê	5	90450 min	214.2 /90	71.4 /90	00 /90

Corinthians — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Corinthians before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Hugo Souza n 8	90.9	4.3 7/7

Corinthians Defensive

Corinthians — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Gustavo Henrique	41	913732 min	360.9 /90	360.9 /90	280.7 /90	1644 /90	320.8 /90	60.1 /90
Matheuzinho	39	893490 min	872.2 /90	471.2 /90	60.2 /90	1574 /90	381 /90	80.2 /90
Matheus Bidu	37	863198 min	601.7 /90	391.1 /90	110.3 /90	2176.1 /90	381.1 /90	50.1 /90
Gabriel Paulista	36	903230 min	270.8 /90	441.2 /90	140.4 /90	1343.7 /90	200.6 /90	80.2 /90
Fabrizio Angileri	12	80958 min	272.5 /90	60.6 /90	50.5 /90	545.1 /90	90.8 /90	40.4 /90
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Corinthians — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Corinthians before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Hugo Souza n 8	90.9	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
Gustavo Henrique n 8	90.9	0.7 4/1	0.5 3/1	—
Rodrigo Garro n 8	77.5	1.5 7/3	2.8 7/4	—
Breno Bidon n 8	68.6	1 4/2	2.8 7/5	—
Matheuzinho n 8	82.5	1.2 6/3	1.1 6/2	—
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Corinthians — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Corinthians before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Gustavo Henrique n 8	90.9	0.5 3/1
Rodrigo Garro n 8	77.5	1.2 6/2
Breno Bidon n 8	68.6	1.8 5/3
Matheuzinho n 8	82.5	3.5 8/6
Matheus Bidu n 8	80.9	1.5 5/4
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Corinthians Attacking

Corinthians — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Yuri Alberto	28	812281 min	60.2 /90	30.1 /90	532.1 /90	281.1 /90	240.9 /90	210.8 /90
M. Depay	17	691171 min	10.1 /90	10.1 /90	181.4 /90	80.6 /90	161.2 /90	110.8 /90
Pedro Raul	16	54861 min	20.2 /90	10.1 /90	161.7 /90	80.8 /90	60.6 /90	50.5 /90
Vitinho	10	52520 min	00 /90	10.2 /90	71.2 /90	30.5 /90	71.2 /90	81.4 /90
Zakaria Labyad	10	36361 min	20.5 /90	20.5 /90	82 /90	41 /90	123 /90	00 /90
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Corinthians — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Corinthians before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Hugo Souza n 8	90.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
Gustavo Henrique n 8	90.9	0.6 4/1	0.6 4/1
Rodrigo Garro n 8	77.5	1.3 5/3	0.4 3/0
Breno Bidon n 8	68.6	0.5 2/1	0.3 1/1
Matheuzinho n 8	82.5	1 4/2	0.3 2/0
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Corinthians — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Corinthians before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Hugo Souza n 8	90.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
Gustavo Henrique n 8	90.9	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
Rodrigo Garro n 8	77.5	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
Breno Bidon n 8	68.6	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
Matheuzinho n 8	82.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Sao Paulo v Corinthians — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Sao PauloLWWDL

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

CorinthiansLLLDL

Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 1.2 scored / 2.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Sao Paulo 3 · 1 draw · Corinthians 2 · 3.67 goals/game

2026-05-10 Corinthians 3–2 Sao Paulo
2025-11-20 Corinthians 3–1 Sao Paulo
2025-07-20 Sao Paulo 2–0 Corinthians
2024-09-29 Sao Paulo 3–1 Corinthians
2024-06-16 Corinthians 2–2 Sao Paulo
2023-09-30 Sao Paulo 2–1 Corinthians

League standing · 2026

Sao Paulo#9 pos43 pts32 pl+1 GD

Corinthians#18 pos33 pts32 pl-8 GD

Goals per game

Sao Paulo scored1.16

Corinthians scored1.06

Sao Paulo conceded1.13

Corinthians conceded1.31

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Sao Paulo v Corinthians?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Sao Paulo v Corinthians is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Corinthians?: In their last 6 meetings, Sao Paulo won 3, Corinthians won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Sao Paulo and Corinthians?: Recent form — Sao Paulo 2W 1D 2L; Corinthians 0W 1D 4L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 29 Oct 2026, 03:06 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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