Atalanta v Fiorentina prediction

Serie A · Sun, 31 Jan 2027 17:30 GMT · New Balance Arena

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:25 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Atalanta · Fiorentina · Head-to-head

TACTIX’s free model pick for Atalanta v Fiorentina, Serie A on Sun, 31 Jan 2027 17:30 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Atalanta host Fiorentina in Serie A on Sunday 31 January (kick-off 17:30 UK).

The key numbers

Fiorentina have scored in nine consecutive matches in all competitions. Atalanta are winless in their last six matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Nine of Atalanta’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in nine of Atalanta’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Atalanta have four wins, three draws and two defeats in their last 9 home matches in all competitions — 1.67 points per game, scoring 1.67 and conceding 1.44. Atalanta have scored 16 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games, ranked per game). Atalanta have conceded 20 goals, the sixth-most of the 20 clubs.

11 of Fiorentina’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in 10 of Fiorentina’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). Away from home, Fiorentina have three wins, no draws and three defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 1.50 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 2.00. Fiorentina have scored 15 goals, the 10th-fewest of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games, ranked per game). Fiorentina have conceded 23 goals, the third-most of the 20 clubs.

Atalanta (13th) and Fiorentina (16th) are three points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Fiorentina the stronger side, 80 rating points above Atalanta (Fiorentina 1540, Atalanta 1460, after at least 352 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Atalanta are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Fiorentina. The most recent meeting, on 29 October 2026, finished Fiorentina 2–2 Atalanta.

Team news

Predicted Atalanta XI (4-2-3-1): M. Carnesecchi, R. ObriÄ, L. Bernasconi, D. Zappacosta, G. Scalvini, Éderson, E. Elmas, M. Pašalić, N. Zalewski, C. De Ketelaere, N. Krstović — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Charles De Ketelaere (3.9 per match over 14 appearances, one goal and four assists) and Nikola Krstović (3.7 per match over 14 appearances, seven goals and two assists) have been Atalanta’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Atalanta (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Charles De Ketelaere averages 1.2 shots per 90 over 1806 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last 10 appearances. Nikola Krstović averages 3.9 shots per 90 over 1104 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Fiorentina have one name on the availability list: R. Sottil (out, Back Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-11-07. Predicted Fiorentina XI (4-3-3): D. de Gea, R. Drăgușin, Á. Jiménez, Viery, J. Mário, C. Ndour, N. Fagioli, M. Brescianini, M. Pellegrino, F. Mastantuono, A. Njie — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Franco Mastantuono (5.3 per match over 12 appearances, four goals) and Alieu Njie (4.5 per match over nine appearances, two goals and three assists) have been Fiorentina’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Fiorentina (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Franco Mastantuono averages 2.9 shots per 90 over 1051 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances. Alieu Njie averages 2.1 shots per 90 over 639 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sun, 31 Jan 2027 17:30 GMT · Serie A · New Balance Arena
Head-to-head (last 6): Atalanta 2 · draws 2 · Fiorentina 2 · 3.17 goals/game
Recent form: Atalanta 0W 3D 2L · Fiorentina 1W 1D 3L

Atalanta v Fiorentina (Serie A): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.88 / 2.13

Goals

against 2.13 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

6.5 / 4.75

Corners

against 5.38 / 3.5 · 5 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

6.25 / 5.38

Shots on target

against 5.25 / 4.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.5 / 2.5

Cards

against 2 / 2 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 5 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 5 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Atalanta for / against	Line	Fiorentina for / against
Goals scored	1.88 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	2.13 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6.5 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.75 for · 3.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	17.25 for · 15.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	16.13 for · 13.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	6.25 for · 5.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	5.38 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11 for · 8.88 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.88 for · 11.25 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.5 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.5 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5

Atalanta

Atalanta Goalkeeper

Atalanta — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
M. Carnesecchi	15	901350 min	583.9 /90	191.3 /90	10.1 /90

Atalanta — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	3.2 7/5

Atalanta Defensive

Atalanta — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
L. Bernasconi	12	66795 min	151.7 /90	91 /90	00 /90	202.3 /90	20.2 /90	00 /90
G. Scalvini	11	82899 min	121.2 /90	80.8 /90	70.7 /90	363.6 /90	111.1 /90	00 /90
D. Zappacosta	11	69754 min	202.4 /90	40.5 /90	10.1 /90	313.7 /90	40.5 /90	00 /90
R. Bellanova	9	81726 min	60.7 /90	141.7 /90	30.4 /90	182.2 /90	50.6 /90	10.1 /90
S. Kolašinac	8	55442 min	51 /90	30.6 /90	20.4 /90	112.2 /90	30.6 /90	00 /90
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Atalanta — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
Éderson n 8	72.5	2.2 6/5	0.8 4/1	—
C. De Ketelaere n 8	71.3	0.8 3/2	0.6 4/0	—
N. Krstović n 8	68.8	1.8 4/3	1.6 5/3	—
L. Bernasconi n 8	74.1	0.2 1/0	0 0/0	—
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Atalanta — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Éderson n 8	72.5	1.9 6/4
C. De Ketelaere n 8	71.3	0.9 4/2
N. Krstović n 8	68.8	0.8 3/2
L. Bernasconi n 8	74.1	1.7 6/3
N. Zalewski n 8	54	2.3 5/2
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Atalanta Attacking

Atalanta — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
C. De Ketelaere	14	68955 min	10.1 /90	40.4 /90	141.3 /90	50.5 /90	343.2 /90	212 /90
N. Krstović	14	55767 min	70.8 /90	20.2 /90	333.9 /90	151.8 /90	80.9 /90	70.8 /90
Gianluca Scamacca	11	53585 min	30.5 /90	00 /90	152.3 /90	91.4 /90	71.1 /90	20.3 /90
G. Raspadori	6	56336 min	20.5 /90	10.3 /90	71.9 /90	51.3 /90	41.1 /90	20.5 /90
Éderson	15	781177 min	20.2 /90	00 /90	120.9 /90	80.6 /90	60.5 /90	40.3 /90
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Atalanta — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Éderson n 8	72.5	1.1 4/2	0.8 3/2
C. De Ketelaere n 8	71.3	2.2 6/4	0.8 4/1
N. Krstović n 8	68.8	3.9 6/6	1.8 6/3
L. Bernasconi n 8	74.1	0.3 2/0	0.3 2/0
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Atalanta — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Éderson n 8	72.5	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
C. De Ketelaere n 8	71.3	0.2 1/0	0.5 3/0
N. Krstović n 8	68.8	1 4/2	0.3 2/0
L. Bernasconi n 8	74.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Fiorentina

Fiorentina Goalkeeper

Fiorentina — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
David de Gea	12	901080 min	363 /90	201.7 /90	00 /90

Fiorentina — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Fiorentina before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
David de Gea n 8	90	3 5/4

Fiorentina Defensive

Fiorentina — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
R. Drăgușin	12	861032 min	100.9 /90	252.2 /90	90.8 /90	433.8 /90	121 /90	20.2 /90
Álex Jiménez	10	71714 min	222.8 /90	20.3 /90	10.1 /90	394.9 /90	30.4 /90	10.1 /90
Viery	10	63627 min	182.6 /90	50.7 /90	30.4 /90	273.9 /90	101.4 /90	30.4 /90
Valde	8	74593 min	71.1 /90	20.3 /90	10.2 /90	253.8 /90	91.4 /90	20.3 /90
João Mário	7	72503 min	81.4 /90	30.5 /90	30.5 /90	203.6 /90	50.9 /90	00 /90
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Fiorentina — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Fiorentina before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
David de Gea n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
R. Drăgușin n 8	84.4	0.8 5/1	0.5 3/1	—
C. Ndour n 8	88.6	1 5/2	0.3 2/0	—
Franco Mastantuono n 8	81.4	1.5 6/4	2.6 7/6	—
Mateo Pellegrino n 8	67.9	1.3 4/2	1 4/2	—
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Fiorentina — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Fiorentina before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
R. Drăgușin n 8	84.4	0.8 5/1
C. Ndour n 8	88.6	2.2 8/6
Franco Mastantuono n 8	81.4	3.3 8/6
Mateo Pellegrino n 8	67.9	0.8 4/1
N. Fagioli n 8	81	2.1 6/5
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Fiorentina Attacking

Fiorentina — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Franco Mastantuono	12	73881 min	40.4 /90	00 /90	313.2 /90	121.2 /90	202 /90	232.3 /90
Mateo Pellegrino	11	73799 min	40.5 /90	00 /90	151.7 /90	80.9 /90	121.4 /90	50.6 /90
A. Njie	9	69619 min	20.3 /90	30.4 /90	142 /90	60.9 /90	162.3 /90	152.2 /90
W. Gnonto	8	42336 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	71.9 /90	30.8 /90	30.8 /90	20.5 /90
Beto	4	42167 min	00 /90	10.5 /90	42.2 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90
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Fiorentina — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Fiorentina before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
David de Gea n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
R. Drăgușin n 8	84.4	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
C. Ndour n 8	88.6	1 5/2	0.3 2/0
Franco Mastantuono n 8	81.4	3 7/5	1.4 5/2
Mateo Pellegrino n 8	67.9	1.8 6/3	1.2 4/2
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Fiorentina — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Fiorentina before kick-off, to 5 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
David de Gea n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
R. Drăgușin n 8	84.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Ndour n 8	88.6	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
Franco Mastantuono n 8	81.4	0.6 2/1	0 0/0
Mateo Pellegrino n 8	67.9	0.5 3/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Atalanta v Fiorentina — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

AtalantaLDDLD

Last 5: 0W 3D 2L · 1.4 scored / 2.4 conceded per game

FiorentinaLLLDW

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1.8 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Atalanta 2 · 2 draws · Fiorentina 2 · 3.17 goals/game

2026-10-29 Fiorentina 2–2 Atalanta
2026-05-22 Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta
2025-11-30 Atalanta 2–0 Fiorentina
2025-03-30 Fiorentina 1–0 Atalanta
2024-09-15 Atalanta 3–2 Fiorentina
2024-06-02 Atalanta 2–3 Fiorentina

League standing · 2026/27

Atalanta#13 pos11 pts10 pl-4 GD

Fiorentina#16 pos8 pts10 pl-8 GD

Goals per game

Atalanta scored1.6

Fiorentina scored1.5

Atalanta conceded2

Fiorentina conceded2.3

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Fiorentina?: In their last 6 meetings, Atalanta won 2, Fiorentina won 2 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Atalanta and Fiorentina?: Recent form — Atalanta 0W 3D 2L; Fiorentina 1W 1D 3L.

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