Atalanta v Parma prediction

Serie A · Mon, 02 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · Gewiss Stadium

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 13:18 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Atalanta · Parma · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Draw the free pick for Atalanta v Parma, Serie A on Mon, 02 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick

Home or Draw

Best price: 1.15 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 75.4% of 1690 landed (95% range 73.3–77.4%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Predicted on 25 October 2026, before the fixture moved

How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 957 of 1,289 times (74.2%), against an average rating of 70.3%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Atalanta host Parma in Serie A on Monday 2 November (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Atalanta or the draw, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Parma have scored five goals, the fewest of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Atalanta are winless in their last four matches in all competitions. Parma are winless in their last four matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Eight of Atalanta’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in nine of Atalanta’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Atalanta have four wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.75 points per game, scoring 1.75 and conceding 1.25. Atalanta have scored 16 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Atalanta have conceded 17 goals, the seventh-most of the 20 clubs.

Six of Parma’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in five of Parma’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). Away from home, Parma have no wins, no draws and six defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 0.00 points per game, scoring 0.33 and conceding 2.00. Parma have conceded 15 goals, the eighth-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Atalanta (12th) and Parma (19th) are six points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Atalanta the stronger side, 182 rating points above Parma (Atalanta 1584, Parma 1401, after at least 199 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 25 January 2026, finished Atalanta 4–0 Parma.

Team news

Atalanta have eight names on the availability list: F. Kessie (out, Calf Injury), G. Raspadori (out, Thigh Injury), G. Scamacca (out, Thigh Injury), I. Hien (out, Muscle Injury), O. Kossounou (out, Thigh Injury), R. Bellanova (out, Thigh Injury) and two more — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-31. Predicted Atalanta XI (4-2-3-1): M. Carnesecchi, D. Zappacosta, R. ObriÄ, L. Bernasconi, G. Scalvini, Éderson, E. Elmas, G. Gaetano, N. Zalewski, C. De Ketelaere, N. Krstović — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Charles De Ketelaere (4.1 per match over 12 appearances, one goal and four assists) and Nikola Krstović (3.6 per match over 12 appearances, six goals and two assists) have been Atalanta’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Atalanta (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Charles De Ketelaere averages 1.1 shots per 90 over 1684 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances. Nikola Krstović averages 3.6 shots per 90 over 991 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Parma have two names on the availability list: L. Valenti (out, Coach's decision) and N. Elphege (out, Illness) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-31. Predicted Parma XI (3-4-2-1): E. Corvi, M. Troilo, E. Del Prato, D. Drobnic, M. Keita, V. Sierro, E. Valeri, A. Bernabé, S. Britschgi, C. Ordoñez, D. Romero — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Mandela Keita (3.2 per match over 11 appearances) and Mariano Troilo (3.1 per match over 10 appearances) have been Parma’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Parma (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Mandela Keita averages 0.9 key passes per 90 over 867 minutes, with a key pass in three of the last 10 appearances. Mariano Troilo averages 1.4 tackles per 90 over 895 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Mon, 02 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · Serie A · Gewiss Stadium
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Atalanta 4 · draws 1 · Parma 1 · 4.17 goals/game
Recent form: Atalanta 1W 2D 2L · Parma 1W 1D 3L

Atalanta v Parma (Serie A): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 31 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.88 / 0.63

Goals

against 2.13 / 1.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 3

over 8 matches

5.38 / 4.38

Corners

against 5.25 / 6 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

5.38 / 3.38

Shots on target

against 5.75 / 5.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.38 / 1.38

Cards

against 1.63 / 1.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 29 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 29 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Atalanta for / against	Line	Parma for / against
Goals scored	1.88 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5	3our book	0.63 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.38 for · 5.25 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.38 for · 6 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	16.88 for · 16 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	10.63 for · 17.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5.38 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.38 for · 5.25 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.5 for · 8.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.75 for · 11.63 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.38 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.38 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5

Atalanta

Atalanta Goalkeeper

Atalanta — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
M. Carnesecchi	13	901170 min	554.2 /90	181.4 /90	10.1 /90

Atalanta — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	3.6 8/7

Atalanta Defensive

Atalanta — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
L. Bernasconi	10	63631 min	142 /90	71 /90	00 /90	162.3 /90	10.1 /90	00 /90
R. Bellanova	9	81726 min	60.7 /90	141.7 /90	30.4 /90	182.2 /90	50.6 /90	10.1 /90
G. Scalvini	9	80719 min	101.3 /90	60.8 /90	60.8 /90	283.5 /90	101.3 /90	00 /90
D. Zappacosta	9	74662 min	182.4 /90	20.3 /90	10.1 /90	273.7 /90	40.5 /90	00 /90
S. Kolašinac	8	55442 min	51 /90	30.6 /90	20.4 /90	112.2 /90	30.6 /90	00 /90
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Atalanta — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
Éderson n 8	81.6	1.9 6/5	0.8 4/1	—
C. De Ketelaere n 8	78.5	0.9 4/2	0.6 4/0	—
N. Krstović n 8	63	1.6 3/2	1.6 4/3	—
G. Gaetano n 8	64.8	1 3/3	1 3/2	—
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Atalanta — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Éderson n 8	81.6	1.5 6/3
C. De Ketelaere n 8	78.5	0.9 4/2
N. Krstović n 8	63	0.9 3/2
G. Gaetano n 8	64.8	1.2 7/0
L. Samardžić n 8	47.9	1.9 5/2
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Atalanta Attacking

Atalanta — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
C. De Ketelaere	12	69833 min	10.1 /90	40.4 /90	101.1 /90	40.4 /90	303.2 /90	171.8 /90
N. Krstović	12	55654 min	60.8 /90	20.3 /90	253.4 /90	121.7 /90	71 /90	60.8 /90
Gianluca Scamacca	10	52518 min	30.5 /90	00 /90	142.4 /90	81.4 /90	71.2 /90	20.3 /90
J. Rowe	6	67403 min	00 /90	00 /90	81.8 /90	30.7 /90	71.6 /90	71.6 /90
G. Raspadori	6	56336 min	20.5 /90	10.3 /90	71.9 /90	51.3 /90	41.1 /90	20.5 /90
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Atalanta — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Éderson n 8	81.6	0.8 3/2	0.6 2/2
C. De Ketelaere n 8	78.5	1.4 5/3	0.6 3/1
N. Krstović n 8	63	3.2 6/4	1.6 5/2
G. Gaetano n 8	64.8	1 4/2	0.2 1/0
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Atalanta — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Éderson n 8	81.6	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
C. De Ketelaere n 8	78.5	0.1 1/0	0.6 4/0
N. Krstović n 8	63	0.9 3/2	0.4 2/0
G. Gaetano n 8	64.8	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
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Parma

Parma Goalkeeper

Parma — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
E. Corvi	9	90810 min	313.4 /90	151.7 /90	00 /90
G. Daffara	2	90180 min	84 /90	21 /90	00 /90

Parma — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Parma before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
E. Corvi n 8	90	3.6 7/7

Parma Defensive

Parma — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
E. Del Prato	10	90900 min	101 /90	171.7 /90	60.6 /90	272.7 /90	40.4 /90	20.2 /90
M. Troilo	10	90895 min	141.4 /90	171.7 /90	80.8 /90	434.3 /90	70.7 /90	30.3 /90
E. Valeri	10	84840 min	171.8 /90	101.1 /90	10.1 /90	313.3 /90	40.4 /90	00 /90
D. Drobnic	6	83495 min	71.3 /90	61.1 /90	20.4 /90	173.1 /90	61.1 /90	10.2 /90
Diego Carlos	6	71423 min	71.5 /90	61.3 /90	102.1 /90	153.2 /90	71.5 /90	10.2 /90
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Parma — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Parma before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Mandela Keita n 8	84.4	0.8 4/2	2.9 7/6	—
E. Touré n 8	70.6	1.4 5/3	1.3 4/3	—
E. Del Prato n 8	90	0.5 3/1	0.6 5/0	—
M. Troilo n 8	90	0.9 5/1	0.9 5/2	—
E. Valeri n 8	82.5	0.3 2/0	0.5 3/1	—
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Parma — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Parma before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Mandela Keita n 8	84.4	2.4 8/5
E. Touré n 8	70.6	1.3 5/2
E. Del Prato n 8	90	1 6/2
M. Troilo n 8	90	1.4 5/3
E. Valeri n 8	82.5	1.2 4/3
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Parma Attacking

Parma — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
E. Touré	11	73802 min	00 /90	20.2 /90	121.3 /90	60.7 /90	50.6 /90	70.8 /90
S. Lontani	10	51512 min	40.7 /90	00 /90	132.3 /90	61.1 /90	10.2 /90	71.2 /90
David Romero	9	52468 min	20.4 /90	00 /90	173.3 /90	101.9 /90	40.8 /90	20.4 /90
M. Frigan	7	33234 min	00 /90	00 /90	31.2 /90	20.8 /90	31.2 /90	00 /90
N. Elphege	4	51203 min	00 /90	10.4 /90	20.9 /90	10.4 /90	31.3 /90	20.9 /90
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Parma — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Parma before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Mandela Keita n 8	84.4	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
E. Touré n 8	70.6	1.8 7/4	0.8 5/0
E. Del Prato n 8	90	0.5 3/1	0 0/0
M. Troilo n 8	90	0.8 4/1	0.1 1/0
E. Valeri n 8	82.5	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
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Parma — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Parma before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Mandela Keita n 8	84.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
E. Touré n 8	70.6	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
E. Del Prato n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Troilo n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
E. Valeri n 8	82.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Atalanta v Parma — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

AtalantaWLLDD

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 2.2 scored / 2.4 conceded per game

ParmaWLLLD

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.6 scored / 1.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Atalanta 4 · 1 draw · Parma 1 · 4.17 goals/game

2026-01-25 Atalanta 4–0 Parma
2025-08-30 Parma 1–1 Atalanta
2025-05-25 Atalanta 2–3 Parma
2024-11-23 Parma 1–3 Atalanta
2021-05-09 Parma 2–5 Atalanta
2021-01-06 Atalanta 3–0 Parma

League standing · 2026/27

Atalanta#12 pos11 pts9 pl-1 GD

Parma#19 pos5 pts9 pl-10 GD

Goals per game

Atalanta scored1.78

Parma scored0.56

Atalanta conceded1.89

Parma conceded1.67

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Atalanta v Parma?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Atalanta v Parma is Home or Draw (best price 1.15 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Parma?: In their last 6 meetings, Atalanta won 4, Parma won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 4.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Atalanta and Parma?: Recent form — Atalanta 1W 2D 2L; Parma 1W 1D 3L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 31 Oct 2026, 13:18 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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