Bahia v Sao Paulo — live

Live · 54′ · Bahia 2–2 Sao Paulo

Serie A – Brazil · · Arena Fonte Nova

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Bahia · Sao Paulo · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Bahia 2–2 Sao Paulo — live (54′), Serie A – Brazil. TACTIX’s pre-match free pick was Home or Away. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.29 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.4% of 4833 landed (95% range 76.2–78.5%); it had given them 74.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,737 of 2,344 times (74.1%), against an average rating of 73.3%. How we measure →
Match preview, in numbers

The shape of the game

At home, Bahia have four wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 2.00 points per game, scoring 1.29 and conceding 1.00. Bahia have scored 45 goals, the seventh-most of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Bahia have conceded 40 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Away from home, Sao Paulo have no wins, two draws and four defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 0.33 points per game, scoring 0.33 and conceding 1.33. Sao Paulo have scored 37 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Sao Paulo have conceded 36 goals, the third-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Bahia (seventh) and Sao Paulo (ninth) are seven points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Bahia the stronger side, 44 rating points above Sao Paulo (Bahia 1649, Sao Paulo 1604, after at least 336 rated matches each).

Form and momentum

Six of Bahia’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in eight of Bahia’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%).

Four of Sao Paulo’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (27%). Both teams scored in eight of Sao Paulo’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%).

Sao Paulo are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions.

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 3 May 2026, finished Sao Paulo 2–2 Bahia.

Players to watch

By TACTIX Impact, Luciano Juba (4.1 per match over 32 appearances, 11 goals and one assist) and Nicolás Acevedo (3.5 per match over 32 appearances, one goal and one assist) have been Bahia’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Bahia (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Luciano Juba averages 1.4 tackles per 90 over 2733 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances. Nicolás Acevedo averages 0.5 key passes per 90 over 2665 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances. Bahia have two names on the availability list: Kanu (out, Yellow Cards) and Leo Vieira (out, Knee Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-28.

By TACTIX Impact, Domingos Duarte (4.0 per match over eight appearances, one goal) and Pedro Lima (4.0 per match over six appearances, one goal and one assist) have been Sao Paulo’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Sao Paulo (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Domingos Duarte averages 1.7 tackles per 90 over 676 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last eight appearances. Pedro Lima averages 0.8 key passes per 90 over 532 minutes, with a key pass in two of the last eight appearances. Sao Paulo have eight names on the availability list: Artur (out, Inactive), Buta (out, Knee Injury), Cauly (out, Inactive), D. Duarte (out, Knee Injury), Iago Borduchi (out, Yellow Cards), Jonathan Calleri (out, Inactive) and two more — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-28.

Predicted line-ups

Predicted Bahia XI (4-3-3): Ronaldo, D. Duarte, L. Juba, M. Victor, M. Moreno, R. Nestor, N. Acevedo, J. Lucas, A. Véliz, E. Pulga, C. Olivera — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven.

Predicted Sao Paulo XI (3-4-2-1): Rafael, R. Arboleda, Newton, R. Toloi, I. Borduchi, P. Lima, M. Antônio, D. Ferreira, Artur, D. Bobadilla, J. Calleri — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven.

What the model says

TACTIX’s model makes Bahia or Sao Paulo (no draw) the free pick — a Bronze-tier call across 246 priced markets.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

  • Kick-off: · Serie A – Brazil · Arena Fonte Nova
  • Referee: Anderson Daronco
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Bahia 1 · draws 1 · Sao Paulo 4 · 2.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Bahia 1W 1D 3L · Sao Paulo 2W 1D 2L

Bahia v Sao Paulo (Serie A – Brazil): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 29 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.38 / 0.88
Goals
against 1.5 / 1.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
5.25 / 6.38
Corners
against 7.75 / 4.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.88 / 3.75
Shots on target
against 7.63 / 3.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.5 / 2
Cards
against 2.13 / 2.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 25 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBahia for / againstLineSao Paulo for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 1.5 against n 8
2.75our book
0.88 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
5.25 for · 7.75 against n 8
9.5standard
6.38 for · 4.38 against n 8
Shots
12.75 for · 17.5 against n 8
19.5standard
14 for · 14.13 against n 8
Shots on target
3.88 for · 7.63 against n 8
8.5standard
3.75 for · 3.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
14.75 for · 11.88 against n 8
21.5standard
13.5 for · 14.13 against n 8
Cards shown
2.5 for · 2.13 against n 8
3.5standard
2 for · 2.63 against n 8

Bahia

Bahia Goalkeeper

Bahia — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Ronaldo23892058 min924 /90200.9 /9000 /90
Leo Vieira1187954 min413.9 /90171.6 /9000 /90
Joao Paulo25099 min65.5 /9065.5 /9000 /90
Bahia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bahia before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Ronaldo n 890
6.17/5
Leo Vieira n 885.5
3.67/5

Bahia Defensive

Bahia — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Luciano Juba31852636 min421.4 /90301 /9070.2 /90943.2 /90180.6 /9050.2 /90
David Duarte26912364 min271 /90311.2 /90220.8 /901355.1 /90200.8 /9040.2 /90
Santiago Ramos Mingo25922301 min120.5 /90321.3 /90281.1 /90783.1 /90180.7 /9030.1 /90
Román Gómez16751194 min282.1 /90262 /9060.5 /90806 /90231.7 /9040.3 /90
Gilberto866526 min81.4 /9050.9 /9010.2 /90142.4 /9040.7 /9010.2 /90
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Bahia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bahia before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Erick Pulga n 874.6
1.16/1
1.46/3
Luciano
Nicolás Acevedo n 873.1
2.27/4
1.86/4
—
Luciano Juba n 890
0.11/0
0.84/1
—
Jean Lucas n 860.3
2.25/4
1.15/1
—
Cristian Olivera n 879.4
0.94/2
1.37/1
—
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Bahia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bahia before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Erick Pulga n 874.6
1.25/2
Nicolás Acevedo n 873.1
2.56/5
Luciano Juba n 890
1.56/3
Jean Lucas n 860.3
0.93/2
Cristian Olivera n 879.4
1.86/3
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Bahia Attacking

Bahia — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Erick Pulga33702326 min30.1 /9020.1 /90361.4 /90160.6 /90251 /90461.8 /90
Cristian Olivera27671808 min10 /9020.1 /90291.4 /90201 /90311.5 /90251.2 /90
Ademir27411100 min00 /9010.1 /90171.4 /9080.7 /9090.7 /90181.5 /90
Willian Jose20601207 min40.3 /9010.1 /90181.3 /9090.7 /90211.6 /9050.4 /90
Everaldo1747795 min40.5 /9000 /90171.9 /9080.9 /9070.8 /9030.3 /90
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Bahia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bahia before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Erick Pulga n 874.6
2.17/5
0.94/1
Nicolás Acevedo n 873.1
0.21/0
00/0
Luciano Juba n 890
0.95/2
0.64/1
Jean Lucas n 860.3
1.35/2
0.42/0
Cristian Olivera n 879.4
1.15/2
0.74/1
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Bahia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bahia before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Erick Pulga n 874.6
0.52/1
00/0
Nicolás Acevedo n 873.1
00/0
0.21/0
Luciano Juba n 890
0.54/0
00/0
Jean Lucas n 860.3
0.42/0
0.21/0
Cristian Olivera n 879.4
00/0
0.11/0
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Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo Goalkeeper

Sao Paulo — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Rafael38923479 min872.3 /90330.9 /9000 /90
Carlos Coronel590450 min204 /9040.8 /9000 /90
Sao Paulo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sao Paulo before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Rafael n 890.9
1.54/1

Sao Paulo Defensive

Sao Paulo — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Lucas Ramon28772144 min421.8 /90301.3 /9000 /901275.3 /90241 /9010 /90
Sabino27822227 min471.9 /90331.3 /90200.8 /901275.1 /90311.3 /9020.1 /90
Wendell23681561 min321.8 /90160.9 /9020.1 /90613.5 /90432.5 /9050.3 /90
R. Arboleda19871644 min372 /90160.9 /9050.3 /90925 /90100.5 /9010.1 /90
Alan Javier Franco19851618 min160.9 /90140.8 /90170.9 /90623.4 /90140.8 /9030.2 /90
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Sao Paulo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sao Paulo before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Rafael n 890.9
00/0
0.22/0
—
Danielzinho n 850.6
1.84/3
0.73/0
—
Jonathan Calleri n 870.8
14/1
2.17/4
—
Luciano n 874.8
0.84/1
2.47/5
Erick Pulga
Artur n 877.8
0.31/1
1.77/4
—
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Sao Paulo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sao Paulo before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Danielzinho n 850.6
2.44/3
Jonathan Calleri n 870.8
0.83/1
Luciano n 874.8
0.52/1
Artur n 877.8
1.25/3
Marcos Antônio n 872.5
1.45/2
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Sao Paulo Attacking

Sao Paulo — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Jonathan Calleri33822701 min110.4 /9030.1 /90521.7 /90220.7 /90301 /90130.4 /90
Luciano32752387 min130.5 /9020.1 /90572.1 /90240.9 /90321.2 /9070.3 /90
Ferreirinha26451164 min40.3 /9010.1 /90251.9 /90131 /90221.7 /90372.9 /90
Andre Silva1747804 min00 /9010.1 /9091 /9050.6 /9091 /9050.6 /90
G. Tapia1050501 min00 /9000 /90112 /9030.5 /9020.4 /9040.7 /90
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Sao Paulo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sao Paulo before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Rafael n 890.9
00/0
00/0
Danielzinho n 850.6
0.21/0
0.21/0
Jonathan Calleri n 870.8
2.16/4
0.84/1
Luciano n 874.8
2.98/6
1.16/1
Artur n 877.8
2.56/6
1.24/3
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Sao Paulo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sao Paulo before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Rafael n 890.9
00/0
00/0
Danielzinho n 850.6
00/0
0.21/0
Jonathan Calleri n 870.8
0.63/1
00/0
Luciano n 874.8
0.53/0
00/0
Artur n 877.8
0.11/0
0.11/0
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The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Bahia v Sao Paulo — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
BahiaLLWLD
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Sao PauloLLWWD
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Bahia 1 · 1 draw · Sao Paulo 4 · 2.83 goals/game
  • 2026-05-03 Sao Paulo 2–2 Bahia
  • 2025-10-26 Sao Paulo 2–0 Bahia
  • 2025-05-31 Bahia 2–1 Sao Paulo
  • 2024-11-06 Bahia 0–3 Sao Paulo
  • 2024-06-30 Sao Paulo 3–1 Bahia
  • 2023-11-29 Bahia 0–1 Sao Paulo
League standing · 2026
Bahia#7 pos50 pts32 pl+5 GD
Sao Paulo#9 pos43 pts32 pl+1 GD
Goals per game
Bahia scored1.41
Sao Paulo scored1.16
Bahia conceded1.25
Sao Paulo conceded1.13

See the full prediction

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Bahia v Sao Paulo?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Bahia v Sao Paulo was Home or Away (best price 1.29 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Sao Paulo?
In their last 6 meetings, Bahia won 1, Sao Paulo won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Bahia and Sao Paulo?
Recent form — Bahia 1W 1D 3L; Sao Paulo 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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