Botafogo v Atletico-MG prediction

Serie A – Brazil · · Estádio Nilton Santos

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Botafogo · Atletico-MG · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Botafogo v Atletico-MG, Serie A – Brazil on Thu, 05 Nov 2026 00:30 GMT.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67% of 581 landed (95% range 63–70.7%); it had given them 76.4% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 478 of 727 times (65.7%), against an average rating of 68.1%. How we measure →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Botafogo host Atletico-MG in Serie A – Brazil on Thursday 5 November (kick-off 00:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

Form and the table

Seven of Botafogo’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in eight of Botafogo’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Botafogo have three wins, three draws and two defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.50 points per game, scoring 1.25 and conceding 1.13. Botafogo have scored 44 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Botafogo have conceded 51 goals, the second-most of the 20 clubs.

Eight of Atletico-MG’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in nine of Atletico-MG’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Atletico-MG have no wins, two draws and four defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 0.33 points per game, scoring 0.83 and conceding 2.00. Atletico-MG have scored 44 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026 so far). Atletico-MG have conceded 38 goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Botafogo (11th) and Atletico-MG (sixth) are 11 points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Atletico-MG the stronger side, 315 rating points above Botafogo (Atletico-MG 1725, Botafogo 1411, after at least 337 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 10 May 2026, finished Atletico-MG 1–1 Botafogo.

Team news

Predicted Botafogo XI (4-2-3-1): G. Batista, Vitinho, N. Ferraresi, A. Telles, Marcal, Danilo, C. Medina, M. Martins, H. Ziyech, Huguinho, A. Cabral — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Danilo (4.3 per match over 35 appearances, 13 goals and three assists) and A. Barboza (3.9 per match over 22 appearances, one goal and three assists) have been Botafogo’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Botafogo (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Danilo averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 3296 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances. A. Barboza averages 1.9 tackles per 90 over 3632 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Atletico-MG XI (4-4-2): G. Delfim, R. Lodi, Natanael, Lyanco, Vitão, Maycon, Bernard, K. Castaño, V. Hugo, Reinier, I. Gomes — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Cuello (4.2 per match over 39 appearances, eight goals and eight assists) and Fred (4.1 per match over 10 appearances, one goal and three assists) have been Atletico-MG’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Atletico-MG (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Cuello averages 1.8 key passes per 90 over 2874 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Fred averages 2.1 key passes per 90 over 1005 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

  • Kick-off: · Serie A – Brazil · Estádio Nilton Santos
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Botafogo 3 · draws 2 · Atletico-MG 1 · 1.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Botafogo 1W 1D 3L · Atletico-MG 3W 0D 2L

Botafogo v Atletico-MG (Serie A – Brazil): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 29 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 1.5
Goals
against 1.63 / 1.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5.63 / 5.88
Corners
against 5.88 / 7.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.25 / 6.5
Shots on target
against 5 / 5.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.38 / 1.88
Cards
against 1.38 / 1.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 29 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 29 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBotafogo for / againstLineAtletico-MG for / against
Goals scored
1 for · 1.63 against n 8
2.5our book
1.5 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
5.63 for · 5.88 against n 8
9.5standard
5.88 for · 7.13 against n 8
Shots
14.5 for · 13.25 against n 8
19.5standard
14.63 for · 18.75 against n 8
Shots on target
5.25 for · 5 against n 8
8.5standard
6.5 for · 5.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.38 for · 11.75 against n 8
21.5standard
12.25 for · 10.63 against n 8
Cards shown
1.38 for · 1.38 against n 8
3.5standard
1.88 for · 1.63 against n 8

Botafogo

Botafogo Goalkeeper

Botafogo — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Neto16891416 min442.8 /90191.2 /9000 /90
Gabriel Batista12881050 min393.3 /9090.8 /9000 /90
Raul Steffens1087865 min394.1 /90192 /9000 /90
Warleson685509 min183.2 /9081.4 /9000 /90
Léo Linck591457 min153 /9040.8 /9000 /90
Botafogo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Botafogo before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Neto n 886
2.94/4
Gabriel Batista n 891.1
3.36/5

Botafogo Defensive

Botafogo — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Alex Telles42773254 min381.1 /90371 /90100.3 /901133.1 /90401.1 /9060.2 /90
Vitinho41823372 min742 /90270.7 /90290.8 /901554.1 /90391 /9040.1 /90
N. Ferraresi32862766 min732.4 /90391.3 /90260.8 /901655.4 /90361.2 /9090.3 /90
A. Barboza22891955 min442 /90271.2 /90140.6 /901336.1 /90351.6 /9070.3 /90
M. Ponte20651304 min211.4 /90191.3 /9090.6 /90755.2 /90130.9 /9070.5 /90
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Botafogo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Botafogo before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Alex Telles n 883.3
1.16/2
1.15/2
—
Vitinho n 887.6
0.63/2
14/2
—
Arthur Cabral n 871.3
1.66/3
0.63/1
—
Álvaro Montoro n 874
1.14/1
0.83/2
—
Matheus Martins n 862.5
0.41/1
4.18/7
—
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Botafogo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Botafogo before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Alex Telles n 883.3
0.85/1
Vitinho n 887.6
1.86/5
Arthur Cabral n 871.3
0.21/0
Álvaro Montoro n 874
1.14/2
Matheus Martins n 862.5
1.14/2
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Botafogo Attacking

Botafogo — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Arthur Cabral38732764 min90.3 /9020.1 /90742.4 /90341.1 /90230.7 /90210.7 /90
Junior Santos23521198 min20.2 /9000 /90302.3 /90131 /9080.6 /90241.8 /90
Lucas Villalba1946882 min10.1 /9010.1 /90121.2 /9070.7 /90111.1 /9080.8 /90
K. Barria1938721 min10.1 /9010.1 /90293.6 /90111.4 /90121.5 /9070.9 /90
Danilo958519 min10.2 /9010.2 /90101.7 /9050.9 /9091.6 /9040.7 /90
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Botafogo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Botafogo before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Alex Telles n 883.3
0.75/0
0.32/0
Vitinho n 887.6
0.95/2
0.32/0
Arthur Cabral n 871.3
2.46/4
0.62/2
Álvaro Montoro n 874
1.45/2
0.93/2
Matheus Martins n 862.5
1.87/2
0.93/1
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Botafogo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Botafogo before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Alex Telles n 883.3
0.11/0
0.11/0
Vitinho n 887.6
0.11/0
0.11/0
Arthur Cabral n 871.3
00/0
0.21/0
Álvaro Montoro n 874
0.21/0
0.31/1
Matheus Martins n 862.5
0.21/0
0.21/0
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Atletico-MG

Atletico-MG Goalkeeper

Atletico-MG — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Everson35913200 min1143.2 /90361 /9000 /90
Gabriel Delfim12921099 min433.5 /9070.6 /9000 /90
Atletico-MG — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Everson n 891.5
3.26/5
Gabriel Delfim n 890.8
3.86/5

Atletico-MG Defensive

Atletico-MG — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Renan Lodi40873492 min491.3 /90431.1 /90130.3 /901844.7 /90541.4 /9050.1 /90
Natanael32812598 min481.7 /90301 /90100.3 /901374.7 /90281 /9030.1 /90
Ruan Tressoldi30852544 min341.2 /90331.2 /90301.1 /901254.4 /90301.1 /9090.3 /90
Vitor Hugo25781945 min221 /90211 /90170.8 /90823.8 /90180.8 /9020.1 /90
Lyanco17861469 min161 /90181.1 /90140.9 /90593.6 /90201.2 /9040.2 /90
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Atletico-MG — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Renan Lodi n 875.8
14/2
16/1
—
Bernard n 877.3
15/2
17/0
—
Cuello n 879.8
1.14/3
1.47/3
—
Victor Hugo n 849.3
0.73/0
0.72/1
—
Everson n 891.5
0.11/0
0.42/1
—
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Atletico-MG — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Renan Lodi n 875.8
1.34/2
Bernard n 877.3
1.25/3
Cuello n 879.8
0.74/1
Victor Hugo n 849.3
1.65/2
A. Franco n 880.1
1.85/4
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Atletico-MG Attacking

Atletico-MG — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
M. Cassierra30611836 min50.2 /9020.1 /90281.4 /90150.7 /90221.1 /9060.3 /90
A. Minda30431290 min40.3 /9030.2 /90302.1 /90171.2 /90221.5 /90332.3 /90
Reinier28581630 min50.3 /9030.2 /90271.5 /90170.9 /90281.5 /90170.9 /90
Dudu2138801 min20.2 /9000 /90161.8 /90101.1 /90131.5 /90151.7 /90
Hulk1470979 min10.1 /9030.3 /90181.7 /9070.6 /90181.7 /9070.6 /90
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Atletico-MG — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Renan Lodi n 875.8
1.35/3
0.64/0
Bernard n 877.3
1.56/2
0.95/1
Cuello n 879.8
2.14/4
0.73/2
Victor Hugo n 849.3
2.36/2
0.94/0
Everson n 891.5
00/0
00/0
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Atletico-MG — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico-MG before kick-off, to 29 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Renan Lodi n 875.8
0.11/0
0.11/0
Bernard n 877.3
0.64/0
00/0
Cuello n 879.8
0.11/0
0.11/0
Victor Hugo n 849.3
00/0
0.52/0
Everson n 891.5
00/0
00/0
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The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Botafogo v Atletico-MG — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
BotafogoLDWLL
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.8 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Atletico-MGWWWLL
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Botafogo 3 · 2 draws · Atletico-MG 1 · 1.83 goals/game
  • 2026-05-10 Atletico-MG 1–1 Botafogo
  • 2025-09-20 Botafogo 1–0 Atletico-MG
  • 2025-04-20 Atletico-MG 1–0 Botafogo
  • 2024-11-30 Atletico-MG 1–3 Botafogo
  • 2024-11-21 Atletico-MG 0–0 Botafogo
  • 2024-07-07 Botafogo 3–0 Atletico-MG
League standing · 2026
Botafogo#11 pos39 pts32 pl-7 GD
Atletico-MG#6 pos50 pts32 pl+6 GD
Goals per game
Botafogo scored1.38
Atletico-MG scored1.38
Botafogo conceded1.59
Atletico-MG conceded1.19

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)
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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Botafogo v Atletico-MG?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Botafogo v Atletico-MG is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Atletico-MG?
In their last 6 meetings, Botafogo won 3, Atletico-MG won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 1.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Botafogo and Atletico-MG?
Recent form — Botafogo 1W 1D 3L; Atletico-MG 3W 0D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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