Botafogo v Santos result

Full-time · Botafogo 2–1 Santos

Serie A – Brazil · · Estádio Nilton Santos

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Botafogo · Santos · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Botafogo 2–1 Santos — Botafogo won this Serie A – Brazil match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.90 at Bet365
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.9% of 634 landed (95% range 62.2–69.5%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 419 of 636 times (65.9%), against an average rating of 68.5%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Botafogo beat Santos 2–1 at Estádio Nilton Santos in Serie A – Brazil on Thursday 16 July. Botafogo have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions. Santos have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Botafogo led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Botafogo: Lucas Emanuel (41’, assisted by Kauan Toledo) and K. Barria (90’); Santos: Álvaro Barreal (57’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with K. Barria’s goal on 90 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Botafogo 2.46, Santos 2.62, from 17 shots to 22 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima, Brazil showed five yellow cards — against 4.2 yellows a game across the last 26 matches refereed (this competition).

What it changes

Botafogo move up from 10th to ninth (18 league matches played).

Santos move down from 15th to 16th (19 league matches played).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Gonzalo Escobar (Santos) 6.7, Álvaro Barreal (Santos) 6.5 and Kauan Toledo (Botafogo) 5.6 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 65.9% of the time in the last 90 days (418 of 634).

Next up

Botafogo next travel to Internacional on 24 October 2026.

Santos next host Bahia on 25 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Botafogo: Internacional v Botafogo, Saturday 24 October — the preview. Next for Santos: Santos v Bahia, Sunday 25 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Botafogo 2–1 Santos · Serie A – Brazil
  • Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos · Rio de Janeiro
  • Referee: Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima, Brazil
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Botafogo 2 · draws 3 · Santos 1 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Botafogo 3W 1D 1L · Santos 2W 1D 2L

Botafogo 2–1 Santos (Serie A – Brazil): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 20 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 1.88
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.38 / 3.5
Corners
against 5 / 4.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
7 / 3.38
Shots on target
against 3.88 / 4.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
3.13 / 3.25
Cards
against 2.88 / 2.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
4.19 yellows
Referee · Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima, Brazil
2.08 home / 2.12 away
over 26 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 31 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 31 May 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBotafogo for / againstLineSantos for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.5our book
1.88 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
4.38 for · 5 against n 8
9.5standard
3.5 for · 4.75 against n 8
Shots
18.13 for · 14.13 against n 8
19.5standard
10.75 for · 12 against n 8
Shots on target
7 for · 3.88 against n 8
8.5standard
3.38 for · 4.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
13.88 for · 11.5 against n 8
21.5standard
13.25 for · 14.25 against n 8
Cards shown
3.13 for · 2.88 against n 8
3.5standard
3.25 for · 2.88 against n 8

Referee: Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima, Brazil — 4.19 yellow cards a game, 0.27 red cards, 26.15 fouls over 26 matches (2.08 to the home side, 2.12 to the away side).

Botafogo
Botafogo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Huguinho n 886.1
2.78/7
2.18/5
Gustavo Henrique Pereira
Jordan Barrera n 828.8
2.74/2
1.63/1
—
K. Barria n 844.8
2.55/3
1.34/1
—
Santiago Rodríguez n 842.1
2.15/3
3.54/3
—
Marcal n 840.4
22/2
00/0
—
Botafogo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
K. Barria n 844.8
4.56/4
1.54/2
Kauan Toledo n 837.8
4.24/1
1.83/1
J. Correa n 829.1
4.26/3
1.94/1
Jordan Barrera n 828.8
3.56/3
24/1
Arthur Cabral n 880.1
2.47/6
1.46/3
Botafogo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Correa n 829.1
0.41/0
1.22/1
Kauan Toledo n 837.8
0.31/0
0.62/0
Jordan Barrera n 828.8
0.82/0
00/0
Arthur Cabral n 880.1
0.62/1
00/0
Matheus Martins n 864.6
0.31/1
0.21/0
Botafogo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Marcal n 840.4
3.34/3
Santiago Rodríguez n 842.1
3.25/3
Danilo n 841.3
2.75/3
C. Medina n 879.1
2.47/5
Huguinho n 886.1
2.27/6
Botafogo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Raul Steffens n 885.6
4.18/6
Neto n 886
2.94/4
Santos
Santos — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Samuel Mendes n 421
4.33/1
00/0
—
João Schmidt n 853.8
3.17/4
0.83/1
—
Rony n 827.5
2.54/1
3.74/4
—
Gustavo Henrique Pereira n 856.1
2.26/4
2.47/4
Huguinho
Mayke n 863.1
1.66/2
1.14/1
—
Santos — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Robinho Júnior n 815.3
34/0
1.52/0
Neymar n 867.3
2.88/6
1.26/1
Gabriel Barbosa n 857.5
26/3
14/1
Álvaro Barreal n 863.9
1.66/3
0.74/0
Miguelito n 856.1
1.24/2
0.83/1
Santos — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Gabriel Barbosa n 857.5
14/1
0.42/0
Gabriel Bontempo n 880.5
0.43/0
0.32/0
Neymar n 867.3
0.53/0
0.21/0
Miguelito n 856.1
0.21/0
0.42/0
Benjamín Rollheiser n 869
0.21/0
0.32/0
Santos — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Gustavo Henrique Pereira n 856.1
3.85/4
Álvaro Barreal n 863.9
3.36/5
João Paulo Ananias n 461
3.33/3
Robinho Júnior n 815.3
34/0
Willian Arão n 866.1
2.76/4
Santos — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Gabriel Brazão n 890
2.96/3

The next free picks, by email

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Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
BotafogoSantos
48%Possession52%
2.46Expected goals (xG)2.62
17Shots22
7Shots on target9
4Shots off target6
6Blocked shots7
11Shots inside the box16
5Corners5
10Fouls13
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
8Saves5
377Passes414
81%Pass accuracy79%

Botafogo player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Léo Linck9700000007.7
G. Justino9700000507.3
N. Ferraresi97000001Y7.3
Huguinho97001120Y6.3
C. Medina9700412306.7
Lucas Villalba9700110306.3
Vitinho8600002106.6
Alex Telles8600001106.6
Kauan Toledo7701102206.9
Matheus Martins64002215Y6.9
Santiago Rodríguez sub3300001107.2
K. Barria sub20101100Y7.3
Edenilson sub1900000006.3
Marcal sub1100000006.9
M. Ponte sub1100000006.7

Santos player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Gabriel Brazão9700000006.3
Lucas Veríssimo9700310006.9
Luan Peres9700000106.3
Gonzalo Escobar9700001506.9
Willian Arão9700000507.5
Álvaro Barreal97105401Y7.3
Igor Vinícius7100100306.6
Benjamín Rollheiser7100004106.3
Miguelito6400115206.6
Thaciano64002001Y6.2
Gustavo Henrique Pereira5400000206.6
Christian Oliva sub4300000006.2
Nadson sub3300001206.9
Rony sub3300220106.5
Gabriel Menino sub2600001107
Gabriel Bontempo sub2600112006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Botafogo v Santos — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
BotafogoWWDWL
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.2 scored / 1 conceded per game
SantosLDLWW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Botafogo 2 · 3 draws · Santos 1 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2025-10-26 Botafogo 2–2 Santos
  • 2025-06-01 Santos 0–1 Botafogo
  • 2023-11-26 Botafogo 1–1 Santos
  • 2023-07-23 Santos 2–2 Botafogo
  • 2022-11-10 Botafogo 3–0 Santos
  • 2022-07-21 Santos 2–0 Botafogo
League standing · 2026
Botafogo#11 pos39 pts31 pl-4 GD
Santos#8 pos45 pts31 pl+2 GD
Goals per game
Botafogo scored1.42
Santos scored1.55
Botafogo conceded1.55
Santos conceded1.48

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Botafogo v Santos?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Botafogo v Santos was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.90 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Santos?
In their last 6 meetings, Botafogo won 2, Santos won 1 and there were 3 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Botafogo and Santos?
Recent form — Botafogo 3W 1D 1L; Santos 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s boards

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