Fiorentina v Atalanta prediction

Serie A · Thu, 29 Oct 2026 19:45 GMT · Stadio Artemio Franchi

Updated 29 Oct 2026, 09:03 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Fiorentina · Atalanta · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Fiorentina v Atalanta, Serie A on Thu, 29 Oct 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.60 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.1% of 586 landed (95% range 63.2–70.7%); it had given them 76.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 479 of 729 times (65.7%), against an average rating of 68.1%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Fiorentina host Atalanta in Serie A on Thursday 29 October (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Fiorentina have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions. Fiorentina are winless in their last four matches in all competitions. Atalanta are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

10 of Fiorentina’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in eight of Fiorentina’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Fiorentina have two wins, four draws and three defeats in their last 9 home matches in all competitions — 1.11 points per game, scoring 1.22 and conceding 1.22. Fiorentina have scored nine goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Fiorentina have conceded 19 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Eight of Atalanta’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in nine of Atalanta’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Atalanta have two wins, one draw and four defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.14 and conceding 1.71. Atalanta have scored 14 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Atalanta have conceded 15 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Fiorentina (19th) and Atalanta (12th) are six points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Atalanta the stronger side, 150 rating points above Fiorentina (Atalanta 1595, Fiorentina 1445, after at least 350 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 22 May 2026, finished Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta.

Team news

Fiorentina have five names on the availability list: A. Atta (out, Abdominal strain), F. Parisi (out, Knee Injury), M. Pongracic (out, Muscle Injury), R. Sottil (out, Back Injury) and L. Ranieri (doubtful, Leg Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-29. Predicted Fiorentina XI (4-3-3): D. de Gea, R. Drăgușin, Á. Jiménez, Valde, Viery, C. Ndour, N. Fagioli, M. Brescianini, M. Pellegrino, A. Njie, F. Mastantuono — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Franco Mastantuono (4.6 per match over 10 appearances, three goals) and Álex Jiménez (3.8 per match over eight appearances, two goals and two assists) have been Fiorentina’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Fiorentina (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Franco Mastantuono averages 2.6 shots per 90 over 873 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances. Álex Jiménez averages 2.4 tackles per 90 over 534 minutes, with a tackle in five of the last eight appearances.

Atalanta have nine names on the availability list: F. Kessie (out, Calf Injury), G. Raspadori (out, Thigh Injury), G. Scamacca (out, Thigh Injury), I. Hien (out, Muscle Injury), O. Kossounou (out, Thigh Injury), R. Bellanova (out, Muscle Injury) and three more — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-29. Predicted Atalanta XI (4-3-3): M. Carnesecchi, T. Kristensen, D. Zappacosta, R. ObriÄ, L. Bernasconi, Éderson, E. Elmas, G. Gaetano, N. Krstović, C. De Ketelaere, J. Rowe — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Nikola Krstović (3.8 per match over 11 appearances, six goals and two assists) and Charles De Ketelaere (3.6 per match over 11 appearances, three assists) have been Atalanta’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Atalanta (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Nikola Krstović averages 3.8 shots per 90 over 901 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances. Charles De Ketelaere averages 1.1 shots per 90 over 1594 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Thu, 29 Oct 2026 19:45 GMT · Serie A · Stadio Artemio Franchi
Referee: Federico La Penna
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Fiorentina 2 · draws 1 · Atalanta 3 · 3.33 goals/game
Recent form: Fiorentina 1W 1D 3L · Atalanta 2W 1D 2L

Fiorentina v Atalanta (Serie A): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 29 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.5 / 1.75

Goals

against 1.88 / 2.13 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.25

over 8 matches

4.75 / 5.25

Corners

against 3.88 / 6 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

5.38 / 5

Shots on target

against 5.13 / 6.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.13 / 1.38

Cards

against 1.88 / 1.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 25 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Fiorentina for / against	Line	Atalanta for / against
Goals scored	1.5 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.25our book	1.75 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.75 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.25 for · 6 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	15.88 for · 13.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	16.38 for · 17.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5.38 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	5 for · 6.5 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.13 for · 11.88 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.13 for · 8.5 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.13 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.38 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5

Fiorentina

Fiorentina Goalkeeper

Fiorentina — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
David de Gea	10	90900 min	333.3 /90	202 /90	00 /90

Fiorentina — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Fiorentina before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
David de Gea n 8	90	3.2 6/4

Fiorentina Defensive

Fiorentina — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
R. Drăgușin	10	85852 min	91 /90	232.4 /90	91 /90	384 /90	111.2 /90	10.1 /90
Valde	8	74593 min	71.1 /90	20.3 /90	10.2 /90	253.8 /90	91.4 /90	20.3 /90
Álex Jiménez	8	67534 min	142.4 /90	20.3 /90	00 /90	264.4 /90	10.2 /90	10.2 /90
Viery	8	56447 min	132.6 /90	40.8 /90	30.6 /90	193.8 /90	102 /90	20.4 /90
L. Ranieri	5	80399 min	40.9 /90	40.9 /90	20.5 /90	122.7 /90	61.4 /90	20.5 /90
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Fiorentina — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Fiorentina before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
David de Gea n 8	90	0 0/0	0.4 3/0	—
R. Drăgușin n 8	84.4	1.1 6/2	0.8 4/2	—
C. Ndour n 8	82.1	0.8 5/1	0.5 4/0	—
Franco Mastantuono n 8	76	1.2 5/3	2.5 7/6	—
N. Fagioli n 8	78.8	0.9 5/1	1.3 5/3	—
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Fiorentina — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Fiorentina before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
R. Drăgușin n 8	84.4	0.8 5/1
C. Ndour n 8	82.1	1.9 8/4
Franco Mastantuono n 8	76	2.2 6/4
N. Fagioli n 8	78.8	2.4 7/6
Mateo Pellegrino n 8	67.9	0.5 3/0
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Fiorentina Attacking

Fiorentina — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Franco Mastantuono	10	70703 min	30.4 /90	00 /90	222.8 /90	101.3 /90	162 /90	182.3 /90
Mateo Pellegrino	9	70633 min	30.4 /90	00 /90	111.6 /90	60.9 /90	101.4 /90	50.7 /90
A. Njie	7	70487 min	00 /90	10.2 /90	101.8 /90	40.7 /90	132.4 /90	122.2 /90
W. Gnonto	6	48288 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	51.6 /90	30.9 /90	30.9 /90	20.6 /90
Beto	4	42167 min	00 /90	10.5 /90	42.2 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90
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Fiorentina — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Fiorentina before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
David de Gea n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
R. Drăgușin n 8	84.4	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
C. Ndour n 8	82.1	1 5/1	0.3 2/0
Franco Mastantuono n 8	76	3 7/4	1.5 6/1
N. Fagioli n 8	78.8	1 4/2	0.6 3/1
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Fiorentina — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Fiorentina before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
David de Gea n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
R. Drăgușin n 8	84.4	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
C. Ndour n 8	82.1	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
Franco Mastantuono n 8	76	0.4 1/1	0 0/0
N. Fagioli n 8	78.8	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
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Atalanta

Atalanta Goalkeeper

Atalanta — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
M. Carnesecchi	12	901080 min	534.4 /90	181.5 /90	10.1 /90

Atalanta — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	4.5 8/8

Atalanta Defensive

Atalanta — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
R. Bellanova	9	81726 min	60.7 /90	141.7 /90	30.4 /90	182.2 /90	50.6 /90	10.1 /90
L. Bernasconi	9	60541 min	101.7 /90	71.2 /90	00 /90	111.8 /90	10.2 /90	00 /90
G. Scalvini	8	79633 min	91.3 /90	30.4 /90	60.9 /90	273.8 /90	101.4 /90	00 /90
D. Zappacosta	8	72572 min	172.7 /90	20.3 /90	10.2 /90	233.6 /90	40.6 /90	00 /90
S. Kolašinac	8	55442 min	51 /90	30.6 /90	20.4 /90	112.2 /90	30.6 /90	00 /90
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Atalanta — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
Éderson n 8	80.3	1.5 6/4	0.8 4/1	—
C. De Ketelaere n 8	78.5	0.7 4/1	0.6 4/0	—
N. Krstović n 8	54.5	1.9 3/2	1.9 4/3	—
L. Samardžić n 8	47.9	1.4 3/2	0 0/0	—
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Atalanta — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Éderson n 8	80.3	1.1 5/2
C. De Ketelaere n 8	78.5	1.1 5/3
N. Krstović n 8	54.5	0.8 2/2
L. Samardžić n 8	47.9	1.9 5/2
G. Gaetano n 8	68.9	1.3 7/1
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Atalanta Attacking

Atalanta — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
C. De Ketelaere	11	68743 min	00 /90	30.4 /90	81 /90	20.2 /90	263.1 /90	151.8 /90
N. Krstović	11	51564 min	61 /90	20.3 /90	233.7 /90	111.8 /90	71.1 /90	61 /90
Gianluca Scamacca	10	52518 min	30.5 /90	00 /90	142.4 /90	81.4 /90	71.2 /90	20.3 /90
G. Raspadori	6	56336 min	20.5 /90	10.3 /90	71.9 /90	51.3 /90	41.1 /90	20.5 /90
J. Rowe	5	74371 min	00 /90	00 /90	71.7 /90	30.7 /90	61.5 /90	61.5 /90
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Atalanta — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Éderson n 8	80.3	1 4/2	0.7 3/2
C. De Ketelaere n 8	78.5	1.1 4/2	0.3 2/0
N. Krstović n 8	54.5	3.3 5/3	1.7 4/2
L. Samardžić n 8	47.9	2.1 7/2	0.2 1/0
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Atalanta — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atalanta before kick-off, to 25 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
M. Carnesecchi n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Éderson n 8	80.3	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
C. De Ketelaere n 8	78.5	0 0/0	0.4 3/0
N. Krstović n 8	54.5	1 3/2	0.4 2/0
L. Samardžić n 8	47.9	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Fiorentina v Atalanta — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

FiorentinaWDLLL

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

AtalantaWWLLD

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 2.4 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Fiorentina 2 · 1 draw · Atalanta 3 · 3.33 goals/game

2026-05-22 Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta
2025-11-30 Atalanta 2–0 Fiorentina
2025-03-30 Fiorentina 1–0 Atalanta
2024-09-15 Atalanta 3–2 Fiorentina
2024-06-02 Atalanta 2–3 Fiorentina
2024-04-24 Atalanta 4–1 Fiorentina

League standing · 2026/27

Fiorentina#19 pos4 pts8 pl-10 GD

Atalanta#12 pos10 pts8 pl-1 GD

Goals per game

Fiorentina scored1.13

Atalanta scored1.75

Fiorentina conceded2.38

Atalanta conceded1.88

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Fiorentina v Atalanta?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Fiorentina v Atalanta is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.60 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Atalanta?: In their last 6 meetings, Fiorentina won 2, Atalanta won 3 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Fiorentina and Atalanta?: Recent form — Fiorentina 1W 1D 3L; Atalanta 2W 1D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 29 Oct 2026, 09:03 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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