Genoa v AC Milan result

Full-time · Genoa 1–2 AC Milan

Serie A · Sun, 17 May 2026 11:00 BST · Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Genoa · AC Milan · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Genoa 1–2 AC Milan — AC Milan won this Serie A match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Under 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 55.7% of 140 landed (95% range 47.4–63.7%); it had given them 77.6% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Genoa: 1.67 to 1.55 in expected goals, 0.76 of AC Milan’s from a penalty, from 11 shots to 8, ahead on xG from the 77th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match). The result went the other way.

The result

AC Milan won 2–1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A on Sunday 17 May. AC Milan are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Genoa, every meeting checked.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — AC Milan: Christopher Nkunku (50’ pen) and Zachary Athekame (81’, assisted by Christian Pulišić); Genoa: J. Vásquez (86’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Christopher Nkunku’s goal on 50 minutes.

Discipline

S. Sozza showed five yellow cards — against 3.3 yellows a game across the last 9 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Genoa: Justin Bijlow (48’) and Vítinha (63’); AC Milan: Matteo Gabbia (62’), F. Tomori (72’) and Samuele Ricci (86’).

What it changes

Genoa stay 14th after this result (37 league matches played). Genoa have scored one goal, the second-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 4 games, ranked per game). Genoa have conceded four goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

AC Milan move up from fifth to second (37 league matches played). AC Milan have scored four goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 4 games, ranked per game). AC Milan have conceded six goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Genoa are winless in their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Christopher Nkunku (AC Milan) 7.7, Morten Frendrup (Genoa) 6.3 and J. Vásquez (Genoa) 6.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 55.7% of the time in the last 90 days (78 of 140).

Next up

Genoa next host AC Milan on 8 November 2026.

AC Milan next travel to Genoa on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Genoa: Genoa v AC Milan, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Genoa 1–2 AC Milan · Serie A
Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris · Genova
Referee: S. Sozza
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Genoa 0 · draws 3 · AC Milan 3 · 2.33 goals/game
Recent form: Genoa 2W 2D 1L · AC Milan 1W 1D 3L

Genoa 1–2 AC Milan (Serie A): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.75 / 0.75

Goals

against 1 / 1.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

3.88 / 3.38

Corners

against 3.88 / 3.38 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

3.25 / 3.38

Shots on target

against 3.75 / 4.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.13 / 1.88

Cards

against 2.88 / 2.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

3.33 yellows

Referee · S. Sozza

24.11 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 9 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 10 May 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Genoa for / against	Line	AC Milan for / against
Goals scored	0.75 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5	2.5our book	0.75 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.88 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3.38 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	11.63 for · 12.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12.5 for · 11.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3.25 for · 3.75 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.38 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.38 for · 15.25 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.63 for · 11.5 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.13 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.88 for · 2.5 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: S. Sozza — 3.33 yellow cards a game, 0.22 red cards, 24.11 fouls over 9 matches.

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Genoa

Genoa Goalkeeper

Genoa — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded
N. Leali	22	881939 min	592.7 /90	271.3 /90
J. Bijlow	15	871305 min	412.8 /90	181.2 /90
D. Sommariva	2	88175 min	84.1 /90	42.1 /90

Genoa — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Genoa before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
N. Leali n 8	84.4	3.7 6/5
J. Bijlow n 8	84.4	2.8 5/4

Genoa Defensive

Genoa — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
J. Vásquez	38	903401 min	681.8 /90	461.2 /90	280.7 /90	2085.5 /90	270.7 /90	20.1 /90
A. Marcandalli	32	822629 min	321.1 /90	260.9 /90	110.4 /90	983.4 /90	240.8 /90	40.1 /90
L. Østigård	31	852644 min	361.2 /90	301 /90	270.9 /90	1575.3 /90	381.3 /90	70.2 /90
S. Otoa	10	74742 min	111.3 /90	101.2 /90	111.3 /90	435.2 /90	40.5 /90	10.1 /90
M. Frendrup	37	853136 min	942.7 /90	431.2 /90	140.4 /90	1704.9 /90	401.1 /90	50.1 /90
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Genoa — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Genoa before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Vásquez n 8	89.3	0.4 3/0	1.4 8/3	F. Tomori
M. Frendrup n 8	88.4	0.9 6/1	0.6 3/2	—
L. Colombo n 8	60.6	1.5 6/2	2.4 6/3	—
R. Malinovskyi n 8	45.9	1 4/0	0.2 1/0	—
M. Ellertsson n 8	83.3	0.9 4/2	1.9 6/5	S. Pavlović
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Genoa — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Genoa before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Vásquez n 8	89.3	2.4 7/5
M. Frendrup n 8	88.4	2.7 8/6
L. Colombo n 8	60.6	0.6 3/0
R. Malinovskyi n 8	45.9	0.7 3/0
M. Ellertsson n 8	83.3	1.6 6/3
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Genoa Attacking

Genoa — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
L. Colombo	36	632284 min	70.3 /90	20.1 /90	532.1 /90	271.1 /90	230.9 /90	180.7 /90
Vítinha	31	692142 min	50.2 /90	10 /90	381.6 /90	200.8 /90	170.7 /90	321.3 /90
C. Ekuban	26	36931 min	40.4 /90	10.1 /90	242.3 /90	101 /90	111.1 /90	60.6 /90
J. Ekhator	25	38958 min	40.4 /90	00 /90	131.2 /90	50.5 /90	90.8 /90	111 /90
Junior Messias	20	37730 min	30.4 /90	10.1 /90	162 /90	81 /90	70.9 /90	182.2 /90
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Genoa — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Genoa before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Vásquez n 8	89.3	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
M. Frendrup n 8	88.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Colombo n 8	60.6	2.4 6/3	1.1 3/1
R. Malinovskyi n 8	45.9	2.2 5/2	0.7 2/1
M. Ellertsson n 8	83.3	0.7 3/1	0 0/0
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Genoa — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Genoa before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Vásquez n 8	89.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Frendrup n 8	88.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Colombo n 8	60.6	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
R. Malinovskyi n 8	45.9	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
M. Ellertsson n 8	83.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
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AC Milan

AC Milan Goalkeeper

AC Milan — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
M. Maignan	39	893481 min	1062.7 /90	350.9 /90	20.1 /90
P. Terracciano	2	62124 min	42.9 /90	00 /90	00 /90

AC Milan — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Maignan n 8	90	3 8/3

AC Milan Defensive

AC Milan — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
S. Pavlović	36	853044 min	521.5 /90	270.8 /90	140.4 /90	1755.2 /90	290.9 /90	50.1 /90
F. Tomori	34	822790 min	712.3 /90	321 /90	250.8 /90	1023.3 /90	391.3 /90	80.3 /90
M. Gabbia	28	872435 min	200.7 /90	130.5 /90	190.7 /90	853.1 /90	220.8 /90	30.1 /90
K. De Winter	25	812021 min	301.3 /90	120.5 /90	120.5 /90	833.7 /90	321.4 /90	20.1 /90
Zachary Athekame	16	42678 min	111.5 /90	20.3 /90	00 /90	334.4 /90	121.6 /90	30.4 /90
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AC Milan — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
M. Maignan n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
A. Saelemaekers n 8	73.9	1.2 5/2	1.4 5/3	—
S. Pavlović n 8	90	1.1 6/3	0.9 5/1	M. Ellertsson
L. Modrić n 8	86.5	0.9 5/2	1 7/1	—
F. Tomori n 8	69.5	1.6 5/4	0.3 1/1	J. Vásquez
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AC Milan — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
A. Saelemaekers n 8	73.9	2.6 8/6
S. Pavlović n 8	90	2.3 7/5
L. Modrić n 8	86.5	1 6/2
F. Tomori n 8	69.5	1.9 6/5
Y. Fofana n 8	58.9	1.1 6/0
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AC Milan Attacking

AC Milan — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Rafael Leão	29	671936 min	100.5 /90	30.1 /90	462.1 /90	251.2 /90	211 /90	261.2 /90
C. Pulišić	27	631693 min	90.5 /90	30.2 /90	382 /90	231.2 /90	432.3 /90	281.5 /90
C. Nkunku	24	551314 min	70.5 /90	20.1 /90	261.8 /90	141 /90	161.1 /90	70.5 /90
N. Füllkrug	18	33596 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	111.7 /90	50.8 /90	81.2 /90	20.3 /90
S. Giménez	15	61916 min	10.1 /90	10.1 /90	252.5 /90	111.1 /90	50.5 /90	30.3 /90
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AC Milan — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
M. Maignan n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Saelemaekers n 8	73.9	0.9 6/0	0.6 4/0
S. Pavlović n 8	90	0.9 4/3	0.3 2/0
L. Modrić n 8	86.5	0.7 4/1	0.1 1/0
F. Tomori n 8	69.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
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AC Milan — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 10 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
M. Maignan n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Saelemaekers n 8	73.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Pavlović n 8	90	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
L. Modrić n 8	86.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
F. Tomori n 8	69.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Genoa		AC Milan
62%	Possession	38%
1.32	Expected goals (xG)	1.75
11	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	6
7	Shots off target	1
2	Blocked shots	1
7	Shots inside the box	6
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
8	Fouls	19
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
4	Saves	1
477	Passes	288
85%	Pass accuracy	79%

Genoa Player Stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
J. Bijlow	90	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.5
A. Marcandalli	90	0	0	0	0	3	0	7.2
S. Otoa	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
J. Vásquez	90	1	1	1	0	1	0	7.6
M. Ellertsson	90	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.3
M. Frendrup	90	0	0	0	1	6	0	7.2
R. Malinovskyi	90	0	4	0	2	0	0	6.9
Vítinha	90	0	2	0	0	2	Y	7.3
Alexsandro Amorim	89	0	0	0	2	2	0	7.2
L. Colombo	85	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.6
T. Baldanzi	64	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
J. Ekhator sub	26	0	2	1	0	0	0	6.9
C. Ekuban sub	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
Aarón Martín sub	10	0	0	0	0	1	0	7

AC Milan Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
M. Maignan	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
M. Gabbia	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.2
S. Pavlović	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	6.3
Zachary Athekame	90	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	8.3
A. Rabiot	90	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	6.2
D. Bartesaghi	90	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	6.3
A. Jashari	85	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.6
F. Tomori	76	0	0	0	0	0	1	Y	6.7
C. Nkunku	76	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	7.2
Y. Fofana	68	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	6.5
S. Giménez	68	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.3
S. Ricci sub	22	0	0	0	0	1	0	Y	6.2
N. Füllkrug sub	22	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.6
R. Loftus-Cheek sub	16	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
K. De Winter sub	14	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
C. Pulišić sub	14	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	6.9

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Genoa v AC Milan — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

GenoaWWLDD

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 0.8 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

AC MilanLWDLL

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.6 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Genoa 0 · 3 draws · AC Milan 3 · 2.33 goals/game

2026-01-08 AC Milan 1–1 Genoa
2025-05-05 Genoa 1–2 AC Milan
2024-12-15 AC Milan 0–0 Genoa
2024-05-05 AC Milan 3–3 Genoa
2023-10-07 Genoa 0–1 AC Milan
2022-04-15 AC Milan 2–0 Genoa

League standing · 2025/26

Genoa#16 pos41 pts38 pl-10 GD

AC Milan#5 pos70 pts38 pl+18 GD

Goals per game

Genoa scored1.08

AC Milan scored1.39

Genoa conceded1.34

AC Milan conceded0.92

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Genoa 1.67 xG from 11 shots, AC Milan 1.55 from 8. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Genoa (attacking right)AC Milan (attacking left)mark size = expected goals

Team	Shots	Goals	xG
Genoa	11	1	1.67
AC Milan	8	2	1.55

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Genoa 0.11, AC Milan 0.10. At full time, xG was level: Genoa 1.67, AC Milan 1.55, including 0.76 from a penalty. The widest gap was 0.84 xG to AC Milan, in the 64th minute (level on open-play xG).

xG timeline (cumulative)

Genoa 1.67 xGAC Milan 1.55 xGdots = goals · 19 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Genoa v AC Milan?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Genoa v AC Milan was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and AC Milan?: In their last 6 meetings, Genoa won 0, AC Milan won 3 and there were 3 draws, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Genoa and AC Milan?: Recent form — Genoa 2W 2D 1L; AC Milan 1W 1D 3L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions today Tomorrow BTTS board Over 2.5 board Under 2.5 board Over 1.5 board Home win board Away win board Double chance board

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.