Lecce v AC Milan result

Full-time · Lecce 0–2 AC Milan

Serie A ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Lecce · AC Milan · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Lecce 0–2 AC Milan — AC Milan won this Serie A match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Draw or Away.

Free pick
Draw or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 68.1% of 1466 landed (95% range 65.6–70.4%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated draw or away (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 807 of 1,245 times (64.8%), against an average rating of 69.6%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said AC Milan: 2.14 to 0.48 in expected goals, from 14 shots to 7, ahead on xG from the 35th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

AC Milan won 2–0 at Lecce in Serie A on Friday 29 August. AC Milan have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — AC Milan: Ruben Loftus-Cheek (66’, assisted by Luka Modrić) and Christian Pulišić (86’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Ruben Loftus-Cheek’s goal on 66 minutes.

Discipline

Livio Marinelli, Italy showed one yellow card — against 4.5 yellows a game across the last 8 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Lecce: Kialonda Gaspar (64’).

What it changes

Lecce move down from first to 15th (two league matches played). Lecce have scored 28 goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far). Lecce have conceded 50 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

AC Milan move up from 19th to sixth (two league matches played). AC Milan have scored 53 goals, the sixth-most of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far). AC Milan have conceded 35 goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Christian Pulišić (AC Milan) 6.2, Alexis Saelemaekers (AC Milan) 6.1 and Luka Modrić (AC Milan) 5.6 led the match.

Head-to-head

AC Milan are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Lecce, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, the draw or AC Milan, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.1% of the time in the last 90 days (998 of 1466).

Next up

Lecce next host Genoa on 1 November 2026.

AC Milan next host Ferencvarosi TC on 5 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Lecce: Lecce v Genoa, Sunday 1 November — the preview. Next for AC Milan: AC Milan v Ferencvarosi TC, Thursday 5 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Lecce 0–2 AC Milan · Serie A
  • Referee: Livio Marinelli, Italy
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Lecce 0 · draws 2 · AC Milan 4 · 3.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Lecce 3W 2D 0L · AC Milan 2W 0D 3L

Lecce 0–2 AC Milan (Serie A): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.75 / 1.63
Goals
against 0.75 / 1 · 0 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5 / 5.57
Corners
against 6.5 / 4.57 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
3 / 4.57
Shots on target
against 4 / 3.14 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2 / 1.71
Cards
against 2 / 1.71 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 23 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 23 August 2025. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameLecce for / againstLineAC Milan for / against
Goals scored
0.75 for · 0.75 against n 8
2.5standard
1.63 for · 1 against n 8
Corners won
5 for · 6.5 against n 8
9.5standard
5.57 for · 4.57 against n 7
Shots
9.63 for · 12.5 against n 8
19.5standard
16 for · 9.57 against n 7
Shots on target
3 for · 4 against n 8
8.5standard
4.57 for · 3.14 against n 7
Fouls committed
12 for · 11.38 against n 8
21.5standard
11.14 for · 11.86 against n 7
Cards shown
2 for · 2 against n 8
3.5standard
1.71 for · 1.71 against n 7

Referee: Livio Marinelli, Italy.

Lecce

Lecce Goalkeeper

Lecce — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
W. Falcone290180 min63 /9000 /9000 /90
Lecce — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lecce before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
W. Falcone n 890
3.56/4

Lecce Defensive

Lecce — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
A. Gallo290180 min10.5 /9000 /9021 /9031.5 /9000 /9000 /90
Kialonda Gaspar290180 min10.5 /9010.5 /9010.5 /9063 /9021 /9000 /90
Tiago Gabriel290180 min31.5 /9052.5 /9000 /90136.5 /9010.5 /9000 /90
Danilo Veiga251102 min32.6 /9021.8 /9000 /9076.2 /9010.9 /9000 /90
Owen Kouassi24079 min55.7 /9011.1 /9000 /90910.3 /9000 /9000 /90
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Lecce — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lecce before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Kialonda Gaspar n 888.1
0.43/0
0.83/3
S. Pavlović
Tiago Gabriel n 468.5
0.31/0
0.71/1
M. Gabbia
A. Gallo n 890
0.11/0
0.43/0
M. Gabbia
W. Falcone n 890
00/0
0.53/1
—
L. Coulibaly n 883.5
1.58/3
1.55/3
Y. Fofana
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Lecce — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lecce before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Gallo n 890
1.36/3
Tiago Gabriel n 468.5
12/1
Kialonda Gaspar n 888.1
0.54/0
L. Coulibaly n 883.5
1.37/2
Y. Ramadani n 859.5
3.66/5
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Lecce Attacking

Lecce — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Tete Morente263125 min00 /9000 /9010.7 /9000 /9000 /9021.4 /90
L. Banda254108 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9032.5 /9010.8 /90
F. Camarda251102 min00 /9010.9 /9021.8 /9010.9 /9010.9 /9021.8 /90
L. Coulibaly287173 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9010.5 /9010.5 /90
Y. Ramadani263125 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9010.7 /9000 /90
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Lecce — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lecce before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Kialonda Gaspar n 888.1
0.53/1
00/0
A. Gallo n 890
0.32/0
0.11/0
W. Falcone n 890
00/0
00/0
Tiago Gabriel n 468.5
00/0
00/0
L. Coulibaly n 883.5
0.54/0
0.32/0
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Lecce — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lecce before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Gallo n 890
00/0
00/0
W. Falcone n 890
00/0
00/0
Kialonda Gaspar n 888.1
00/0
00/0
Tiago Gabriel n 468.5
00/0
00/0
L. Coulibaly n 883.5
0.11/0
00/0
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AC Milan

AC Milan Goalkeeper

AC Milan — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Maignan293185 min21 /9021 /9000 /90
AC Milan — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Maignan n 890.6
2.46/4

AC Milan Defensive

AC Milan — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
M. Gabbia293185 min00 /9000 /9000 /9083.9 /9010.5 /9000 /90
S. Pavlović293185 min21 /9021 /9000 /90115.4 /9021 /9000 /90
F. Tomori280160 min31.7 /9021.1 /9000 /9042.3 /9042.3 /9000 /90
Álex Jiménez14545 min00 /9000 /9000 /90510 /9000 /9012 /90
Y. Fofana293185 min31.5 /9021 /9000 /9052.4 /9052.4 /9000 /90
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AC Milan — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
S. Pavlović n 887.5
1.35/3
0.84/1
Kialonda Gaspar
Y. Fofana n 874.5
1.24/3
0.21/0
L. Coulibaly
M. Gabbia n 886
0.74/1
0.11/0
A. Gallo
M. Maignan n 890.6
00/0
00/0
—
A. Saelemaekers n 861.9
0.42/0
2.47/4
—
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AC Milan — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
S. Pavlović n 887.5
1.87/4
Y. Fofana n 874.5
1.75/4
M. Gabbia n 886
0.53/1
A. Saelemaekers n 861.9
1.66/2
S. Giménez n 840
0.31/0
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AC Milan Attacking

AC Milan — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
S. Giménez284168 min00 /9010.5 /9031.6 /9010.5 /9021.1 /9000 /90
C. Pulišić278156 min10.6 /9000 /9052.9 /9021.2 /9095.2 /9010.6 /90
S. Chukwueze12525 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9013.6 /90
Y. Fofana293185 min00 /9000 /9083.9 /9031.5 /9052.4 /9021 /90
A. Saelemaekers286171 min00 /9000 /9021.1 /9000 /9073.7 /9052.6 /90
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AC Milan — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Y. Fofana n 874.5
1.43/2
0.52/1
S. Pavlović n 887.5
0.43/0
0.32/0
M. Gabbia n 886
0.32/0
0.11/0
M. Maignan n 890.6
00/0
00/0
A. Saelemaekers n 861.9
0.52/1
0.21/0
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AC Milan — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for AC Milan before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Y. Fofana n 874.5
00/0
0.32/0
S. Pavlović n 887.5
0.11/0
00/0
M. Gabbia n 886
0.11/0
00/0
M. Maignan n 890.6
00/0
00/0
A. Saelemaekers n 861.9
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
LecceAC Milan
45%Possession55%
0.30Expected goals (xG)1.85
7Shots14
2Shots on target6
2Shots off target5
3Blocked shots3
5Shots inside the box11
4Corners5
1Offsides4
10Fouls8
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
4Saves2
388Passes482
85%Pass accuracy86%

Lecce Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
W. Falcone9000000107.2
Danilo Veiga9000000005.6
Kialonda Gaspar90000002Y7.2
Tiago Gabriel9000000507.9
A. Gallo9000001106.3
L. Coulibaly9000001207
Y. Ramadani8100000107.2
Tete Morente8100001206.5
M. Kaba6300210007
S. Pierotti6300001206.2
F. Camarda4500000006.3
N. Štulić sub4500111006.3
M. Berisha sub2700000006.3
R. Sottil sub2700000006.7
Þ. Helgason sub900001006.5
K. N’Dri sub900100006.3

AC Milan Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Maignan9000000007.5
F. Tomori9000000207.3
M. Gabbia9000000007
S. Pavlović9000000207.2
Y. Musah9000002107
L. Modrić9001004107.5
Y. Fofana9000212307
P. Estupiñán9000101207
S. Giménez8700211006.2
A. Saelemaekers7700001607.7
R. Loftus-Cheek7610321007.5
S. Ricci sub1400110006.9
C. Pulišić sub1310111108
M. Valletta sub800100006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Lecce v AC Milan — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LecceDWWWD
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 1 scored / 0.2 conceded per game
AC MilanLLWWL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Lecce 0 · 2 draws · AC Milan 4 · 3.5 goals/game
  • 2025-03-08 Lecce 2–3 AC Milan
  • 2024-09-27 AC Milan 3–0 Lecce
  • 2024-04-06 AC Milan 3–0 Lecce
  • 2023-11-11 Lecce 2–2 AC Milan
  • 2023-04-23 AC Milan 2–0 Lecce
  • 2023-01-14 Lecce 2–2 AC Milan
League standing · 2025/26
Lecce#17 pos38 pts38 pl-22 GD
AC Milan#5 pos70 pts38 pl+18 GD
Goals per game
Lecce scored0.74
AC Milan scored1.39
Lecce conceded1.32
AC Milan conceded0.92

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Lecce 0.48 xG from 7 shots, AC Milan 2.14 from 14. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Ruben Loftus-Cheek 35' · 0.56 xGSantiago Giménez 58' · 0.34 xGSantiago Giménez 48' · 0.33 xGTete Morente 20' · 0.13 xGMohamed Kaba 48' · 0.10 xGSantiago Giménez 47' · 0.10 xGMohamed Kaba 41' · 0.09 xGCheveyo Mul 88' · 0.08 xGSamuele Ricci 78' · 0.07 xGNikola Stulic 76' · 0.05 xGKialonda Gaspar 87' · 0.05 xGYoussouf Fofana 69' · 0.04 xGAlexis Saelemaekers 47' · 0.04 xGYoussouf Fofana 79' · 0.03 xGKonan N’Dri 84' · 0.03 xGYlber Ramadani 12' · 0.03 xGRuben Loftus-Cheek 31' · 0.03 xGEstupiñán 54' · 0.01 xGRuben Loftus-Cheek 58' · 0.01 xGChristian Pulisic 85' · 0.42 xG · goalRuben Loftus-Cheek 65' · 0.06 xG · goal
Lecce (attacking right)AC Milan (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Lecce700.48
AC Milan1422.14

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, AC Milan led on xG, 0.59 to 0.24. At full time, AC Milan led on xG, 2.14 to 0.48. The widest gap was 1.66 xG to AC Milan, in the 88th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.104590Goal - AC Milan 65 minGoal - AC Milan 85 min
Lecce 0.48 xGAC Milan 2.14 xGdots = goals · 21 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Lecce v AC Milan?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Lecce v AC Milan was Draw or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and AC Milan?
In their last 6 meetings, Lecce won 0, AC Milan won 4 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Lecce and AC Milan?
Recent form — Lecce 3W 2D 0L; AC Milan 2W 0D 3L.

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