This Matchweek

LecceBologna

Lecce v Bologna result

Full-time · Lecce 1–2 Bologna

Serie A · · Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Lecce · Bologna · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Lecce 1–2 Bologna — Bologna won this Serie A match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.33 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.8% of 5059 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,936 of 2,589 times (74.8%), against an average rating of 73.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Bologna: 2.00 to 1.21 in expected goals, from 10 shots to 19, ahead on xG from the 0th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Bologna won 2–1 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare in Serie A on Sunday 11 October. Bologna are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Lecce, every meeting checked.

The goals

Bologna led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Bologna: Riccardo Orsolini (17’, assisted by Nicolo Cambiaghi) and Jay Enem (75’, assisted by Nicolo Cambiaghi); Lecce: Amar Ahmed Fatah (64’, assisted by Danilo Veiga).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Jay Enem’s goal on 75 minutes.

Discipline

Luca Pairetto, Italy showed five yellow cards — against 4.4 yellows a game across the last 7 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Lecce: Ivan Ilić (10’), Paco Esteban (31’) and Youssef Maleh (45+2’); Bologna: Torbjørn Heggem (44’) and Oussama El Azzouzi (90+4’).

What it changes

Lecce stay 12th after this result (six league matches played). Lecce have scored six goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 6 games, ranked per game). Lecce have conceded 12 goals, the fifth-most of the 20 clubs.

Bologna move up from 17th to 13th (six league matches played). Bologna have scored five goals, the fourth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 6 games, ranked per game). Bologna have conceded seven goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Bologna recorded the only away win among the 10 finished matches of round 6.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Nicolo Cambiaghi (Bologna) 9.8, Amar Ahmed Fatah (Lecce) 9.1 and Danilo Veiga (Lecce) 8.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Lecce or Bologna (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.8% of the time in the last 90 days (3938 of 5059).

Next up

Lecce next travel to Lazio on 22 November 2026.

Bologna next travel to Parma on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Lecce: Lazio v Lecce, Sunday 22 November — the preview. Next for Bologna: Parma v Bologna, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Lecce 1–2 Bologna · Serie A
  • Venue: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare · Lecce
  • Referee: Luca Pairetto, Italy
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Lecce 0 · draws 3 · Bologna 3 · 2.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: Lecce 2W 0D 3L · Bologna 0W 2D 3L

Lecce 1–2 Bologna (Serie A): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 25 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.13 / 1.25
Goals
against 1.75 / 1.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.25 / 3.5
Corners
against 3.88 / 5.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.88 / 3.5
Shots on target
against 6.38 / 3.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.13 / 1.63
Cards
against 0.63 / 1.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
4.43 yellows
Referee · Luca Pairetto, Italy
24.71 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 20 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 20 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLecce for / againstLineBologna for / against
Goals scored
1.13 for · 1.75 against n 8
2.5our book
1.25 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
4.25 for · 3.88 against n 8
9.5standard
3.5 for · 5.38 against n 8
Shots
10 for · 14.75 against n 8
19.5standard
12.25 for · 11.75 against n 8
Shots on target
3.88 for · 6.38 against n 8
8.5standard
3.5 for · 3.5 against n 8
Fouls committed
12 for · 9 against n 8
21.5standard
13.25 for · 13.13 against n 8
Cards shown
2.13 for · 0.63 against n 8
3.5standard
1.63 for · 1.63 against n 8

Referee: Luca Pairetto, Italy — 4.43 yellow cards a game, 0.14 red cards, 24.71 fouls over 7 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Lecce

Lecce Goalkeeper

Lecce — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
W. Falcone690540 min305 /90122 /9000 /90
Lecce — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lecce before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
W. Falcone n 890
4.46/6

Lecce Defensive

Lecce — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Danilo Veiga690540 min172.8 /9061 /9020.3 /90315.2 /9081.3 /9030.5 /90
Kialonda Gaspar585426 min173.6 /9030.6 /9020.4 /90316.5 /9051.1 /9020.4 /90
A. Gallo581405 min71.6 /9030.7 /9030.7 /90122.7 /9010.2 /9000 /90
J. Siebert577384 min122.8 /9071.6 /9030.7 /90225.2 /9030.7 /9010.2 /90
Tiago Gabriel566331 min71.9 /9061.6 /9010.3 /90256.8 /9020.5 /9000 /90
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Lecce — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lecce before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Danilo Veiga n 889.4
1.57/2
1.16/2
T. Heggem
W. Falcone n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
L. Coulibaly n 889.8
0.95/2
1.56/5
L. Ferguson
S. Pierotti n 875.4
1.56/3
0.43/0
Nicolo Cambiaghi
O. Ngom n 857.5
24/4
0.41/1
—
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Lecce — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lecce before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Danilo Veiga n 889.4
2.68/6
L. Coulibaly n 889.8
1.14/3
S. Pierotti n 875.4
2.27/5
O. Ngom n 857.5
2.77/4
N. Štulić n 849.9
0.52/0
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Lecce Attacking

Lecce — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
N. Štulić651306 min00 /9000 /9061.8 /9020.6 /9020.6 /9000 /90
K. N’Dri556278 min00 /9000 /9051.6 /9010.3 /9020.6 /9041.3 /90
A. Ahmed Fatah42599 min00 /9000 /9021.8 /9010.9 /9010.9 /9065.5 /90
W. Geubbels371212 min00 /9000 /9083.4 /9031.3 /9031.3 /9000 /90
Joël Monteiro370210 min00 /9000 /9010.4 /9000 /9010.4 /9073 /90
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Lecce — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lecce before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Danilo Veiga n 889.4
0.11/0
00/0
W. Falcone n 890
00/0
00/0
L. Coulibaly n 889.8
0.94/2
0.42/1
S. Pierotti n 875.4
0.74/1
0.32/0
O. Ngom n 857.5
0.42/0
0.21/0
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Lecce — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lecce before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Danilo Veiga n 889.4
00/0
0.11/0
W. Falcone n 890
00/0
00/0
L. Coulibaly n 889.8
0.31/1
0.11/0
S. Pierotti n 875.4
00/0
0.11/0
O. Ngom n 857.5
00/0
00/0
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Bologna

Bologna Goalkeeper

Bologna — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Ł. Skorupski490360 min92.3 /9051.3 /9000 /90
M. Pessina19090 min33 /9011 /9000 /90
Bologna — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bologna before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Ł. Skorupski n 890
1.95/2
M. Pessina n 588.4
23/2

Bologna Defensive

Bologna — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
T. Heggem590450 min20.4 /9040.8 /9061.2 /90132.6 /9051 /9010.2 /90
Juan Miranda479315 min102.9 /9030.9 /9000 /90174.9 /9010.3 /9000 /90
Emil Holm468273 min154.9 /9020.7 /9020.7 /90278.9 /9000 /9010.3 /90
A. Theate390270 min41.3 /9051.7 /9020.7 /9082.7 /9020.7 /9000 /90
E. Helland379238 min72.6 /9051.9 /9000 /90114.2 /9041.5 /9000 /90
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Bologna — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bologna before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
L. Ferguson n 888.9
2.28/6
15/3
L. Coulibaly
T. Heggem n 881.5
14/2
0.32/0
Danilo Veiga
F. Bernardeschi n 874.3
0.94/2
0.95/1
—
R. Piccoli n 571.6
1.83/2
2.34/3
—
Nicolo Cambiaghi n 864.6
2.16/3
3.87/6
S. Pierotti
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Bologna — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bologna before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
L. Ferguson n 888.9
2.38/6
T. Heggem n 881.5
0.84/1
F. Bernardeschi n 874.3
0.31/1
R. Piccoli n 571.6
0.31/0
Nicolo Cambiaghi n 864.6
13/2
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Bologna Attacking

Bologna — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
R. Piccoli572358 min10.3 /9000 /9082 /9020.5 /9030.8 /9030.8 /90
A. Dovbyk32884 min11.1 /9000 /9033.2 /9011.1 /9011.1 /9000 /90
R. Orsolini24080 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9022.3 /9000 /90
J. Rowe13030 min00 /9000 /9013 /9013 /9000 /9013 /90
L. Ferguson590450 min00 /9000 /9030.6 /9010.2 /9051 /9010.2 /90
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Bologna — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bologna before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
L. Ferguson n 888.9
0.65/0
0.11/0
T. Heggem n 881.5
0.11/0
00/0
F. Bernardeschi n 874.3
2.48/6
1.47/2
R. Piccoli n 571.6
24/3
0.52/0
Nicolo Cambiaghi n 864.6
0.52/1
0.21/0
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Bologna — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bologna before kick-off, to 20 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
L. Ferguson n 888.9
00/0
00/0
T. Heggem n 881.5
00/0
00/0
F. Bernardeschi n 874.3
0.53/0
00/0
R. Piccoli n 571.6
0.31/0
00/0
Nicolo Cambiaghi n 864.6
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
LecceBologna
57%Possession43%
1.49Expected goals (xG)1.98
19Shots9
5Shots on target5
8Shots off target3
6Blocked shots1
14Shots inside the box7
10Corners3
1Offsides4
17Fouls8
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
3Saves4
409Passes314
84%Pass accuracy80%

Lecce Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
W. Falcone9000000006.5
Danilo Veiga9001004307.2
Tiago Gabriel9000100206.9
J. Siebert9000000206.2
A. Gallo9000001007.5
L. Coulibaly9000212106.7
Y. Maleh79001010Y5.9
A. Ahmed Fatah7910111108.7
S. Pierotti6200000006.5
Paco Esteban62001010Y5.9
I. Ilić36000000Y6.2
O. Ngom sub5400211007
K. N’Dri sub2800002006.9
W. Geubbels sub2800201106.7
Joël Monteiro sub1100110006.3
O. Gandelman sub1100211106.6

Bologna Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Pessina9000000006.9
N. Zortea9000110407.3
L. Ferguson9000000306.6
M. Darmian9000101106.7
N. Casale9000000206.9
R. Orsolini8310111108.2
Juan Miranda8100110207.3
Nicolo Cambiaghi8102105108.9
T. Pobega6200100306.6
R. Piccoli6200001006.6
T. Heggem55000000Y6.9
E. Helland sub3500000107.5
J. Enem sub2810110006.6
O. El Azzouzi sub28001101Y6.7
R. Alhassane sub900000106.9
F. Bernardeschi sub900000206.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Lecce v Bologna — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LecceWLLWL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1 scored / 2 conceded per game
BolognaLLDLD
Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 0.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Lecce 0 · 3 draws · Bologna 3 · 2.17 goals/game
  • 2026-04-12 Bologna 2–0 Lecce
  • 2025-09-28 Lecce 2–2 Bologna
  • 2025-02-09 Lecce 0–0 Bologna
  • 2024-11-02 Bologna 1–0 Lecce
  • 2024-02-11 Bologna 4–0 Lecce
  • 2023-12-03 Lecce 1–1 Bologna
League standing · 2026/27
Lecce#14 pos9 pts10 pl-10 GD
Bologna#9 pos14 pts10 pl+1 GD
Goals per game
Lecce scored1.1
Bologna scored1.4
Lecce conceded2.1
Bologna conceded1.3

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Lecce 1.21 xG from 19 shots, Bologna 2.00 from 10. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Tommaso Pobega 61' · 0.74 xGWillem Geubbels 86' · 0.38 xGNicolò Cambiaghi 0' · 0.29 xGPaco Esteban 55' · 0.10 xGJoël Monteiro 79' · 0.09 xGWillem Geubbels 73' · 0.08 xGNadir Zortea 59' · 0.08 xGOumar Ngom 67' · 0.07 xGOussama El Azzouzi 77' · 0.06 xGOmri Gandelman 95' · 0.06 xGJamil Siebert 91' · 0.05 xGTiago Gabriel 90' · 0.04 xGOumar Ngom 74' · 0.03 xGJuan Miranda 38' · 0.03 xGLassana Coulibaly 85' · 0.03 xGKonan N’Dri 79' · 0.03 xGKonan N’Dri 76' · 0.03 xGYoussef Maleh 27' · 0.03 xGMatteo Darmian 61' · 0.02 xGJuan Miranda 69' · 0.02 xGWillem Geubbels 81' · 0.02 xGNadir Zortea 25' · 0.02 xGOmri Gandelman 93' · 0.02 xGLassana Coulibaly 42' · 0.02 xGKonan N’Dri 76' · 0.02 xGLassana Coulibaly 67' · 0.01 xGJay Enem 74' · 0.69 xG · goalAmar Ahmed Fatah 63' · 0.10 xG · goalRiccardo Orsolini 16' · 0.05 xG · goal
Lecce (attacking right)Bologna (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Lecce1911.21
Bologna1022.00

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Bologna led on xG, 0.39 to 0.04. At full time, Bologna led on xG, 2.00 to 1.21. The widest gap was 1.51 xG to Bologna, in the 77th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.01.000′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Bologna 16 minGoal - Lecce 63 minGoal - Bologna 74 min
Lecce 1.21 xGBologna 2.00 xGdots = goals · 29 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Lecce v Bologna?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Lecce v Bologna was Home or Away (best price 1.33 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Bologna?
In their last 6 meetings, Lecce won 0, Bologna won 3 and there were 3 draws, averaging 2.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Lecce and Bologna?
Recent form — Lecce 2W 0D 3L; Bologna 0W 2D 3L.

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