Sao Paulo v Vitoria result

Full-time · Sao Paulo 2–0 Vitoria

Serie A – Brazil ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Sao Paulo · Vitoria · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Sao Paulo 2–0 Vitoria — Sao Paulo won this Serie A – Brazil match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Under 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 52.4% of 185 landed (95% range 45.3–59.5%); it had given them 77.4% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Sao Paulo beat Vitoria 2–0 in Serie A – Brazil on Saturday 9 August.

Vitoria are winless in their last four matches.

The goals

Sao Paulo led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Sao Paulo: D. Bobadilla (20’) and Sabino (86’, assisted by N. Ferraresi).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with D. Bobadilla’s goal on 20 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Sao Paulo 2.53, Vitoria 0.33, from 23 shots to 5 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil showed six yellow cards — against 4.6 yellows a game across the last 22 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Sao Paulo: Enzo Díaz (44’), Maik (60’) and Alan Javier Franco (65’); Vitoria: Zé Marcos (32’), Ronald (42’) and Ramon (63’).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Sabino (Sao Paulo) 7.9, N. Ferraresi (Sao Paulo) 7.4 and Lucas Braga (Vitoria) 5.2 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 52.4% of the time in the last 90 days (97 of 185).

Next up

Sao Paulo next host Vasco DA Gama on 18 October 2026.

Vitoria next travel to Corinthians on 19 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Sao Paulo: Sao Paulo v Vasco DA Gama, Sunday 18 October — the preview. Next for Vitoria: Corinthians v Vitoria, Tuesday 20 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Sao Paulo 2–0 Vitoria · Serie A – Brazil
  • Referee: Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Sao Paulo 6 · draws 0 · Vitoria 0 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Sao Paulo 4W 0D 1L · Vitoria 1W 4D 0L

Sao Paulo 2–0 Vitoria (Serie A – Brazil): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.5 / 0.75
Goals
against 1 / 0.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.5 / 5.13
Corners
against 4.38 / 5.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.88 / 4.38
Shots on target
against 3.25 / 4.88 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.25 / 3.25
Cards
against 2.88 / 2.13 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
4.64 yellows
Referee · Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil
2.41 home / 2.23 away
over 22 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameSao Paulo for / againstLineVitoria for / against
Goals scored
1.5 for · 1 against n 8
2.5standard
0.75 for · 0.75 against n 8
Corners won
4.5 for · 4.38 against n 8
9.5standard
5.13 for · 5.63 against n 8
Shots
11.75 for · 12 against n 8
19.5standard
12.38 for · 17.25 against n 8
Shots on target
3.88 for · 3.25 against n 8
8.5standard
4.38 for · 4.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
15.13 for · 13.88 against n 8
21.5standard
15.25 for · 14.13 against n 8
Cards shown
2.25 for · 2.88 against n 8
3.5standard
3.25 for · 2.13 against n 8

Referee: Bruno Arleu de Araujo, Brazil — 4.64 yellow cards a game, 0.14 red cards, 26.5 fouls over 22 matches (2.41 to the home side, 2.23 to the away side).

Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
G. Tapia n 820
5.15/3
2.34/0
—
J. Dinenno n 822.8
35/1
0.51/0
—
Rodriguinho n 832.1
2.85/3
1.12/1
Ricardo
Enzo Díaz n 870.1
2.77/6
2.17/3
Ricardo
Luciano n 877.8
2.27/5
2.77/6
—
Sao Paulo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
G. Tapia n 820
3.96/1
1.73/0
J. Dinenno n 822.8
35/1
23/1
Luciano n 877.8
2.76/5
1.25/3
Ferreirinha n 846.3
1.94/3
14/0
Rodriguinho n 832.1
1.83/2
0.72/0
Sao Paulo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Luciano n 877.8
0.42/1
0.42/1
Rodriguinho n 832.1
0.41/0
0.41/0
G. Tapia n 820
0.61/0
00/0
Andre Silva n 865.1
0.31/1
0.21/0
Ferreirinha n 846.3
0.52/0
00/0
Sao Paulo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
N. Ferraresi n 882.8
4.27/5
Enzo Díaz n 870.1
3.47/7
D. Bobadilla n 865.3
3.36/5
Pablo Maia n 842.8
2.16/2
Rodriguinho n 832.1
2.15/1
Sao Paulo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Jandrei n 891.1
36/5
Rafael n 880
34/4
Vitoria
Vitoria — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Pepê n 832.9
4.45/4
3.15/2
—
Carlinhos n 841.5
3.86/5
0.31/0
—
Ricardo n 853.8
3.17/4
0.42/0
Enzo Díaz
R. Lopez n 836.6
3.16/3
1.23/1
—
Fabricio n 835.4
2.95/3
1.32/1
—
Vitoria — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
R. Lopez n 836.6
44/4
2.24/3
Erick n 848.9
3.78/4
2.16/2
Carlinhos n 841.5
2.75/4
0.83/0
Gustavo Silva n 838.3
2.15/2
0.93/0
Osvaldo n 845.5
24/1
1.23/1
Vitoria — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
R. Lopez n 836.6
0.62/0
00/0
Erick n 848.9
0.52/0
00/0
Renato Kayzer n 874.8
0.32/0
00/0
Ronald n 865.4
00/0
0.32/0
Carlinhos n 841.5
0.31/0
00/0
Vitoria — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Pepê n 832.9
3.14/2
Ronald n 865.4
2.26/4
Ricardo n 853.8
2.16/3
Gabriel Baralhas n 888.8
1.97/5
Willian Oliveira n 872.3
1.96/4
Vitoria — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 6 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Lucas Arcanjo n 890
3.98/4

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Sao PauloVitoria
56%Possession44%
2.53Expected goals (xG)0.33
23Shots5
3Shots on target1
11Shots off target2
9Blocked shots2
16Shots inside the box4
4Corners3
0Offsides2
16Fouls10
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
1Saves1
480Passes368
87%Pass accuracy80%

Sao Paulo player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Rafael9000000007
N. Ferraresi9001202508
Alan Javier Franco90000000Y7.3
Sabino9010210207.9
Maik90000011Y7.2
Rodriguinho9000202107.5
D. Bobadilla8810320007.7
Enzo Díaz77001032Y7.3
Andre Silva7700200207
Marcos Antônio6500003106.9
Ferreirinha6500101106.9
Luciano sub2600003107
Luan Silva sub2600003107
Patryck sub1400100006.9
Lucas Moura sub1400002006.9
Pablo Maia sub900001006.3

Vitoria player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Lucas Arcanjo9000000006.3
Lucas Halter9000210007.2
Zé Marcos90000000Y6.2
Ramon90000010Y6.3
Ronald90000004Y6.3
Lucas Braga9000000307.3
Renato Kayzer9000000006.7
Ricardo8100000006.9
Osvaldo8100000106.7
Edu7100002207.3
Romarinho7100100006.6
Aitor Cantalapiedra sub2000001006.3
Fabricio sub2000000006.3
Ruben Rodrigues sub1000000106.9
R. Lopez sub1000000106.6

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Sao Paulo v Vitoria — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Sao PauloWWWWL
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 1.6 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
VitoriaDWDDD
Last 5: 1W 4D 0L · 1.2 scored / 1 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Sao Paulo 6 · 0 draws · Vitoria 0 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2024-08-25 Sao Paulo 2–1 Vitoria
  • 2024-05-05 Vitoria 1–3 Sao Paulo
  • 2018-10-26 Vitoria 0–1 Sao Paulo
  • 2018-06-13 Sao Paulo 3–0 Vitoria
  • 2017-09-17 Vitoria 1–2 Sao Paulo
  • 2017-06-08 Sao Paulo 2–0 Vitoria
League standing · 2025
Last recorded position — not updated during the season.
Sao Paulo#8 pos51 pts38 pl-4 GD
Vitoria#15 pos45 pts38 pl-17 GD
Goals per game
Sao Paulo scored1.13
Vitoria scored0.92
Sao Paulo conceded1.24
Vitoria conceded1.37

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Sao Paulo v Vitoria was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Vitoria?
In their last 6 meetings, Sao Paulo won 6, Vitoria won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Sao Paulo and Vitoria?
Recent form — Sao Paulo 4W 0D 1L; Vitoria 1W 4D 0L.

Today’s boards

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