São Bernardo v Athletic Club prediction

Serie B – Brazil · Thu, 12 Nov 2026 23:00 GMT · Estádio Primeiro de Maio

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 12:19 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: São Bernardo · Athletic Club

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for São Bernardo v Athletic Club, Serie B – Brazil on Thu, 12 Nov 2026 23:00 GMT.

Free pick

Home or Away

Best price: 1.36 at Bet365

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.8% of 5235 landed (95% range 76.7–78.9%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

São Bernardo host Athletic Club in Serie B – Brazil on Thursday 12 November (kick-off 23:00 UK); the model’s free pick is São Bernardo or Athletic Club (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

Form and the table

Eight of São Bernardo’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in 10 of São Bernardo’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, São Bernardo have three wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 6 home matches in all competitions — 1.67 points per game, scoring 1.50 and conceding 1.17. São Bernardo have scored 52 goals, the fourth-most of the 20 clubs (2026 so far, after 37 games). São Bernardo have conceded 42 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

10 of Athletic Club’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in nine of Athletic Club’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Athletic Club have one win, two draws and four defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 0.71 points per game, scoring 0.86 and conceding 1.43. Athletic Club have scored 44 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026 so far, after 37 games). Athletic Club have conceded 44 goals, the ninth-most of the 20 clubs.

São Bernardo (11th) and Athletic Club (14th) are five points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have São Bernardo the stronger side, 115 rating points above Athletic Club (São Bernardo 1559, Athletic Club 1443, after at least 37 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 23 July 2026, finished Athletic Club 2–1 São Bernardo.

Team news

Predicted São Bernardo XI (3-4-3): A. Alves, Marcão, Jemerson, Luizão, L. Lima, Pará, H. Sanches, Eduardo, F. Daniel, L. Fernandes, Pedrinho — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Alex Alves (3.9 per match over seven appearances) and Eduardo (3.8 per match over six appearances, one goal and one assist) have been São Bernardo’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for São Bernardo (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Alex Alves averages 4.5 saves per 90 over 639 minutes, with two or more saves in seven of the last seven appearances. Eduardo averages 1.2 key passes per 90 over 466 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last six appearances.

Predicted Athletic Club XI (3-4-2-1): Tony, L. Belezi, Jhonatan, P. Sampaio, J. Miguel, Kauan, Y. Santos, Jota, Yarlen, D. Batista, Carlinhos — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Ian Luccas (5.4 per match over three appearances, two goals) and Kauan (4.5 per match over 11 appearances, two goals and three assists) have been Athletic Club’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Athletic Club (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Ian Luccas averages 0.8 key passes per 90 over 897 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances. Kauan averages 1.3 shots per 90 over 908 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Thu, 12 Nov 2026 23:00 GMT · Serie B – Brazil · Estádio Primeiro de Maio
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 1): São Bernardo 0 · draws 0 · Athletic Club 1 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: São Bernardo 2W 1D 2L · Athletic Club 1W 2D 2L

São Bernardo v Athletic Club (Serie B – Brazil): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.5 / 1.25

Goals

against 1.38 / 1.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.17 / 4.63

Corners

against 6.17 / 5.88 · 2 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 6 matches

4.5 / 4

Shots on target

against 5.5 / 5.75 · 3 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 6 matches

2.17 / 1.75

Cards

against 0.67 / 1.88 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 6 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 8 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 8 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	São Bernardo for / against	Line	Athletic Club for / against
Goals scored	1.5 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	2.5our book	1.25 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.17 for · 6.17 against n 6 Last 5	9.5standard	4.63 for · 5.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	10.5 for · 18.33 against n 6 Last 5	19.5standard	15 for · 17.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.5 for · 5.5 against n 6 Last 5	8.5standard	4 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.67 for · 11.83 against n 6 Last 5	21.5standard	13.25 for · 14.5 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.17 for · 0.67 against n 6 Last 5	3.5standard	1.75 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5

São Bernardo

São Bernardo Goalkeeper

São Bernardo — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Alex Alves	6	92549 min	264.3 /90	30.5 /90	00 /90

São Bernardo — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for São Bernardo before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Alex Alves n 6	91.5	4.3 6/5

São Bernardo Defensive

São Bernardo — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Jemerson	6	84504 min	50.9 /90	20.4 /90	10.2 /90	162.9 /90	61.1 /90	10.2 /90
Marcão	5	81403 min	92 /90	61.3 /90	00 /90	224.9 /90	61.3 /90	20.4 /90
Luizão	4	92369 min	30.7 /90	82 /90	30.7 /90	112.7 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90
Rodrigo Ferreira	4	83330 min	71.9 /90	51.4 /90	20.5 /90	102.7 /90	51.4 /90	10.3 /90
Hélder	3	54163 min	21.1 /90	10.6 /90	00 /90	95 /90	10.6 /90	10.6 /90
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São Bernardo — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for São Bernardo before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Alex Alves n 6	91.5	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0	—
Jemerson n 6	84	1.1 3/2	0 0/0	—
Pedrinho n 6	69.7	0.4 2/0	1.7 4/2	—
Lucas Lima n 6	63	1.4 3/3	2.1 4/4	—
Eduardo n 5	84.2	1.9 5/4	1.5 3/2	—
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São Bernardo — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for São Bernardo before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Jemerson n 6	84	0.9 4/1
Pedrinho n 6	69.7	1.3 5/1
Lucas Lima n 6	63	1 2/1
Eduardo n 5	84.2	0.9 3/1
Marcão n 5	80.6	2 5/3
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São Bernardo Attacking

São Bernardo — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Pedrinho	6	70418 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	91.9 /90	30.6 /90	20.4 /90	81.7 /90
Fabrício Daniel	5	57286 min	20.6 /90	10.3 /90	30.9 /90	20.6 /90	41.3 /90	00 /90
Felipe Garcia	5	55273 min	10.3 /90	10.3 /90	41.3 /90	20.7 /90	31 /90	10.3 /90
D. Davi	3	3295 min	10.9 /90	00 /90	21.9 /90	10.9 /90	21.9 /90	32.8 /90
Pedro Vitor	2	55110 min	00 /90	00 /90	21.6 /90	00 /90	32.5 /90	10.8 /90
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São Bernardo — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for São Bernardo before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Alex Alves n 6	91.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
Jemerson n 6	84	0.5 2/1	0.4 2/0
Pedrinho n 6	69.7	1.9 4/2	0.6 3/0
Lucas Lima n 6	63	1.7 4/3	1 4/0
Eduardo n 5	84.2	1.5 4/2	0.4 1/1
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São Bernardo — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for São Bernardo before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Alex Alves n 6	91.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
Jemerson n 6	84	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
Pedrinho n 6	69.7	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
Lucas Lima n 6	63	0.5 2/0	0.2 1/0
Eduardo n 5	84.2	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
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Athletic Club

Athletic Club Goalkeeper

Athletic Club — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded
Luan Polli	9	91817 min	343.7 /90	101.1 /90
Jhonatan	2	90180 min	52.5 /90	31.5 /90
Tony	1	9090 min	22 /90	00 /90

Athletic Club — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Athletic Club before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Luan Polli n 8	90.9	3.8 7/6

Athletic Club Defensive

Athletic Club — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Lucas Belezi	12	911087 min	151.2 /90	191.6 /90	70.6 /90	463.8 /90	90.7 /90	10.1 /90
Jhonatan	10	89886 min	141.4 /90	181.8 /90	20.2 /90	343.5 /90	121.2 /90	30.3 /90
Diogo Batista	8	79629 min	172.4 /90	30.4 /90	00 /90	334.7 /90	142 /90	20.3 /90
Douglas Pelé	7	54378 min	102.4 /90	30.7 /90	10.2 /90	276.4 /90	61.4 /90	00 /90
Zeca	6	74444 min	122.4 /90	71.4 /90	00 /90	173.4 /90	71.4 /90	20.4 /90
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Athletic Club — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Athletic Club before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Lucas Belezi n 8	90.9	0.7 5/1	0.2 2/0	—
Kauan n 8	88.5	0.5 4/0	2.5 8/7	—
Jhonatan n 8	88.3	0.9 6/1	0.8 4/1	—
JoÃ£o Miguel n 8	86.4	0.9 5/2	0.8 5/1	—
Luan Polli n 8	90.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0	—
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Athletic Club — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Athletic Club before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Lucas Belezi n 8	90.9	0.9 6/1
Kauan n 8	88.5	0.6 3/1
Jhonatan n 8	88.3	1.3 6/4
JoÃ£o Miguel n 8	86.4	1.6 8/2
Diogo Batista n 8	78.6	2.4 6/4
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Athletic Club Attacking

Athletic Club — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Kauan	11	83908 min	20.2 /90	30.3 /90	131.3 /90	40.4 /90	222.2 /90	111.1 /90
Max	7	71500 min	10.2 /90	10.2 /90	132.3 /90	40.7 /90	50.9 /90	40.7 /90
D. Vera	7	36253 min	10.4 /90	00 /90	31.1 /90	10.4 /90	10.4 /90	41.4 /90
W. Aponza	6	45270 min	00 /90	00 /90	82.7 /90	51.7 /90	51.7 /90	10.3 /90
Kauan Lindes	5	82412 min	20.4 /90	00 /90	61.3 /90	30.7 /90	20.4 /90	81.7 /90
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Athletic Club — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Athletic Club before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Lucas Belezi n 8	90.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Kauan n 8	88.5	1.4 7/3	0.4 2/1
Jhonatan n 8	88.3	1.3 4/2	0.5 2/2
JoÃ£o Miguel n 8	86.4	1 4/2	0.4 2/1
Luan Polli n 8	90.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Athletic Club — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Athletic Club before kick-off, to 8 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Lucas Belezi n 8	90.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
Kauan n 8	88.5	0.1 1/0	0.4 3/0
Jhonatan n 8	88.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
JoÃ£o Miguel n 8	86.4	0.4 2/1	0 0/0
Luan Polli n 8	90.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind São Bernardo v Athletic Club — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

São BernardoDLWWL

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Athletic ClubDDLWL

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 1

São Bernardo 0 · 0 draws · Athletic Club 1 · 3 goals/game

2026-07-23 Athletic Club 2–1 São Bernardo

League standing · 2026

São Bernardo#11 pos52 pts37 pl+10 GD

Athletic Club#14 pos47 pts37 pl0 GD

Goals per game

São Bernardo scored1.41

Athletic Club scored1.19

São Bernardo conceded1.14

Athletic Club conceded1.19

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win São Bernardo v Athletic Club?: TACTIX’s free model pick for São Bernardo v Athletic Club is Home or Away (best price 1.36 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between São Bernardo and Athletic Club?: In their last 1 meetings, São Bernardo won 0, Athletic Club won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of São Bernardo and Athletic Club?: Recent form — São Bernardo 2W 1D 2L; Athletic Club 1W 2D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 12:19 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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