CarrareseSpezia

Carrarese v Spezia result

Full-time · Carrarese 3–1 Spezia

Serie B – Italy · · Stadio dei Marmi

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Carrarese · Spezia

The model’s pre-match pick

Carrarese 3–1 Spezia — Carrarese won this Serie B – Italy match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick
Home or Draw
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 76.5% of 1761 landed (95% range 74.5–78.5%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Carrarese beat Spezia 3–1 at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B – Italy on Monday 6 April. Carrarese are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions. Spezia are winless in their last four matches in all competitions.

The goals

Carrarese led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Carrarese: N. Calabrese (17’, assisted by E. Zuelli), M. Finotto (23’, assisted by S. Zanon) and F. Abiuso (63’, assisted by Luis Hasa); Spezia: M. Valoti (49’, assisted by G. Artistico). M. Valoti (85’), N. Belloni (90’), E. Adamo (90’) and G. Bonfanti (90+2’) were sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s eight key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with N. Calabrese’s goal on 17 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Carrarese 2.61, Spezia 1.44, from 12 shots to 16 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

G. Manganiello showed five yellow cards and four reds — against 3.2 yellows a game across the last 13 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Carrarese: M. Finotto (59’); Spezia: G. Bonfanti (16’), A. Matějů (45+2’), L. Vignali (69’) and Christian Comotto (90+6’).

What it changes

Carrarese have scored 46 goals, the eighth-most of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 37 games). Carrarese have conceded 50 goals, the 10th-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Spezia have scored 42 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 37 games). Spezia have conceded 58 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, M. Valoti (Spezia) 9.0, Luis Hasa (Carrarese) 5.4 and N. Calabrese (Carrarese) 5.3 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Carrarese or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 76.5% of the time in the last 90 days (1348 of 1761).

Next up

Carrarese next host Virtus Entella on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Carrarese: Carrarese v Virtus Entella, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Carrarese 3–1 Spezia · Serie B – Italy
  • Venue: Stadio dei Marmi · Carrara
  • Referee: G. Manganiello
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 3): Carrarese 1 · draws 0 · Spezia 2 · 4 goals/game
  • Recent form: Carrarese 2W 2D 1L · Spezia 1W 2D 2L

Carrarese 3–1 Spezia (Serie B – Italy): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 1.38
Goals
against 1.13 / 2 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
6.13 / 3.63
Corners
against 5.75 / 4.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.25 / 4.38
Shots on target
against 3.63 / 5 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.13 / 2.75
Cards
against 2.5 / 1.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 22 March 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 22 March 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameCarrarese for / againstLineSpezia for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.5standard
1.38 for · 2 against n 8
Corners won
6.13 for · 5.75 against n 8
9.5standard
3.63 for · 4.25 against n 8
Shots
12.5 for · 11.63 against n 8
19.5standard
12.38 for · 13.75 against n 8
Shots on target
4.25 for · 3.63 against n 8
8.5standard
4.38 for · 5 against n 8
Fouls committed
13 for · 15.75 against n 8
21.5standard
14.75 for · 14.25 against n 8
Cards shown
2.13 for · 2.5 against n 8
3.5standard
2.75 for · 1.88 against n 8

Referee: G. Manganiello.

Carrarese

Carrarese Defensive

Carrarese — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Carrarese before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
E. Zuelli n 889.1
0.32/0
1.37/3
G. Aurelio
M. Bleve n 890
00/0
0.31/1
—
S. Zanon n 887.3
1.46/4
0.84/2
G. Aurelio
F. Abiuso n 884
0.85/1
1.25/2
—
J. Illanes n 881
1.77/3
2.48/7
—
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Carrarese — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Carrarese before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
E. Zuelli n 889.1
1.15/3
M. Bleve n 890
00/0
S. Zanon n 887.3
1.47/2
F. Abiuso n 884
0.53/1
J. Illanes n 881
1.36/3
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Carrarese Attacking

Carrarese — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Carrarese before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
E. Zuelli n 889.1
1.37/3
0.65/0
M. Bleve n 890
00/0
00/0
S. Zanon n 887.3
17/1
0.11/0
F. Abiuso n 884
2.87/5
0.94/1
J. Illanes n 881
0.11/0
0.11/0
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Carrarese — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Carrarese before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
E. Zuelli n 889.1
00/0
0.11/0
M. Bleve n 890
00/0
00/0
S. Zanon n 887.3
00/0
0.32/0
F. Abiuso n 884
0.32/0
0.11/0
J. Illanes n 881
00/0
00/0
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Spezia

Spezia Defensive

Spezia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Spezia before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
G. Aurelio n 876.4
0.63/1
0.11/0
S. Zanon
G. Artistico n 882.6
15/1
2.98/7
—
P. Beruatto n 871.8
0.94/1
0.32/0
—
A. Matějů n 876.6
2.26/4
1.95/4
—
G. Di Serio n 854.4
2.55/4
2.96/6
—
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Spezia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Spezia before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
G. Aurelio n 876.4
0.63/1
G. Artistico n 882.6
0.73/2
P. Beruatto n 871.8
1.35/3
A. Matějů n 876.6
1.96/5
G. Di Serio n 854.4
0.21/0
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Spezia Attacking

Spezia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Spezia before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
G. Aurelio n 876.4
1.26/2
0.74/1
G. Artistico n 882.6
2.96/5
1.65/4
P. Beruatto n 871.8
0.52/1
00/0
A. Matějů n 876.6
0.32/0
0.11/0
G. Di Serio n 854.4
1.75/3
13/2
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Spezia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Spezia before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
G. Aurelio n 876.4
0.43/0
0.32/0
G. Artistico n 882.6
0.84/2
00/0
P. Beruatto n 871.8
00/0
00/0
A. Matějů n 876.6
00/0
00/0
G. Di Serio n 854.4
0.21/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
CarrareseSpezia
51%Possession49%
2.61Expected goals (xG)1.44
12Shots16
4Shots on target4
7Shots off target4
1Blocked shots8
10Shots inside the box11
2Corners5
5Offsides1
12Fouls22
1Yellow cards4
1Red cards3
3Saves1
358Passes337
80%Pass accuracy79%

Carrarese Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Bleve9000000006.9
N. Calabrese9010110007.5
F. Oliana9000000006.5
F. Ruggeri9000100008.2
G. Parlanti9000211207.3
E. Zuelli9001002007.3
S. Zanon8501002007.7
F. Abiuso8510311006.9
L. Hasa7901103207.5
J. Rouhi7000000006.6
M. Finotto70101100Y7.2
N. Belloni sub20001010R6.6
F. Distefano sub2000001006.2
T. Rubino sub1400100006.6
D. Bouah sub1400000006.7
Nicolás Schiavi sub1100000006.6

Spezia Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
B. Radunović9000000006.6
P. Hristov9000000206.3
G. Bonfanti90000012RY6.2
L. Sernicola9000000006.3
G. Artistico9001112006.3
A. Romano8500101106.7
M. Valoti85102246R8.9
G. Aurelio7900100006
L. Vignali70002130Y6.2
F. Bandinelli7000100207.2
A. Matějů45000010Y5.7
G. Lapadula sub4500000006.3
C. Comotto sub20000000Y6.5
E. Adamo sub20000000R6.2
A. Bellemo sub1400000006.3
M. Ruggero sub1100000006.6

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Carrarese v Spezia — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
CarrareseDLDWW
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1 conceded per game
SpeziaDWLDL
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.6 scored / 2.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 3
Carrarese 1 · 0 draws · Spezia 2 · 4 goals/game
  • 2025-08-24 Spezia 0–2 Carrarese
  • 2025-01-19 Carrarese 0–4 Spezia
  • 2024-09-22 Spezia 4–2 Carrarese
League standing · 2025/26
Carrarese#12 pos44 pts38 pl-5 GD
Spezia#19 pos35 pts38 pl-16 GD
Goals per game
Carrarese scored1.24
Spezia scored1.13
Carrarese conceded1.37
Spezia conceded1.55

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Carrarese v Spezia?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Carrarese v Spezia was Home or Draw.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Spezia?
In their last 3 meetings, Carrarese won 1, Spezia won 2 and there were 0 draws, averaging 4 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Carrarese and Spezia?
Recent form — Carrarese 2W 2D 1L; Spezia 1W 2D 2L.

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