Erzurumspor FK v Samsunspor result

Full-time · Erzurumspor FK 1–0 Samsunspor

Süper Lig · Sun, 20 Sep 2026 15:00 BST · Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu

Updated 4 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

The model’s pre-match pick

Erzurumspor FK 1–0 Samsunspor — Erzurumspor FK won this Süper Lig match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Draw or Away.

Free pick

Draw or Away

Best price: 1.52 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 68.1% of 1431 landed (95% range 65.7–70.5%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated draw or away (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 848 of 1,310 times (64.7%), against an average rating of 69.7%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Erzurumspor FK beat Samsunspor 1–0 at Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu in the Süper Lig on Sunday 20 September. Samsunspor have lost their last four matches in all competitions.

The goals

Erzurumspor FK led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Erzurumspor FK: Miguel Cardoso (45’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Miguel Cardoso’s goal on 45 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Erzurumspor FK 0.72, Samsunspor 0.36, from 8 shots to 8 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

A. B. Taskinsoy showed five yellow cards — against 3.3 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Erzurumspor FK: Miguel Cardoso (18’), E. Owusu (33’) and B. Baiye (77’); Samsunspor: S. Onur (64’) and E. Kılınç (86’).

What it changes

Erzurumspor FK move up from 15th to 14th (six league matches played). Erzurumspor FK have scored three goals, the second-fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 6 games, ranked per game). Erzurumspor FK have conceded 11 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Samsunspor move down from 14th to 16th (six league matches played). Samsunspor have scored six goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 6 games, ranked per game). Samsunspor have conceded 12 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Miguel Cardoso (Erzurumspor FK) 5.0, E. Taşkıran (Erzurumspor FK) 4.3 and B. Baiye (Erzurumspor FK) 4.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, the draw or Samsunspor, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.1% of the time in the last 90 days (975 of 1431).

Next up

Erzurumspor FK next travel to Rizespor on 8 November 2026.

Samsunspor next travel to Galatasaray on 22 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Erzurumspor FK: Rizespor v Erzurumspor FK, Sunday 8 November — the preview. Next for Samsunspor: Galatasaray v Samsunspor, Sunday 22 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Erzurumspor FK 1–0 Samsunspor · Süper Lig
Venue: Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu · Erzurum
Referee: A. B. Taskinsoy
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Recent form: Erzurumspor FK 1W 1D 3L · Samsunspor 1W 1D 3L

Erzurumspor FK 1–0 Samsunspor (Süper Lig): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 4 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.13 / 1.63

Goals

against 2 / 1.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.25

over 8 matches

3.2 / 3.25

Corners

against 4.4 / 5.25 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 5 matches

2.8 / 4

Shots on target

against 4.2 / 6 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 5 matches

1 / 1.25

Cards

against 1.88 / 2.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

3.33 yellows

Referee · A. B. Taskinsoy

23.33 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 6 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 12 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Erzurumspor FK for / against	Line	Samsunspor for / against
Goals scored	1.13 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5	2.25our book	1.63 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.2 for · 4.4 against n 5 Last 5	9.5standard	3.25 for · 5.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	9.2 for · 14.8 against n 5 Last 5	19.5standard	13.38 for · 17.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	2.8 for · 4.2 against n 5 Last 5	8.5standard	4 for · 6 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.6 for · 11.8 against n 5 Last 5	21.5standard	12 for · 15 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.25 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: A. B. Taskinsoy — 3.33 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 23.33 fouls over 6 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Erzurumspor FK

Erzurumspor FK Goalkeeper

Erzurumspor FK — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
E. Taşkıran	3	90270 min	82.7 /90	41.3 /90	00 /90
M. Orbanić	2	90180 min	21 /90	73.5 /90	00 /90

Erzurumspor FK — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Erzurumspor FK before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
E. Taşkıran n 3	90	2.7 2/2

Erzurumspor FK Defensive

Erzurumspor FK — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
A. Gerxhaliu	5	90450 min	61.2 /90	51 /90	51 /90	112.2 /90	10.2 /90	00 /90
N. Mujakić	5	85427 min	132.7 /90	10.2 /90	30.6 /90	224.6 /90	20.4 /90	10.2 /90
O. Ovacıklı	5	80400 min	173.8 /90	40.9 /90	20.5 /90	327.2 /90	30.7 /90	00 /90
M. Yumlu	3	90270 min	10.3 /90	10.3 /90	20.7 /90	72.3 /90	10.3 /90	10.3 /90
G. Giorbelidze	3	90269 min	72.3 /90	41.3 /90	00 /90	113.7 /90	41.3 /90	00 /90
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Erzurumspor FK — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Erzurumspor FK before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
B. Baiye n 5	90	1.2 3/2	0 0/0	C. Yüksel
A. Gerxhaliu n 5	90	0.2 1/0	0 0/0	L. Tómasson
N. Mujakić n 5	85.4	0.4 2/0	0.4 2/0	J. Mendes
O. Ovacıklı n 5	80	0.7 2/1	2.7 5/5	L. Tómasson
M. Rodríguez n 5	78	1.4 3/2	1.8 4/3	C. Yüksel
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Erzurumspor FK — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Erzurumspor FK before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
B. Baiye n 5	90	1.8 5/3
A. Gerxhaliu n 5	90	1.2 4/1
N. Mujakić n 5	85.4	2.7 4/3
O. Ovacıklı n 5	80	3.8 5/5
M. Rodríguez n 5	78	0.7 3/0
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Erzurumspor FK Attacking

Erzurumspor FK — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
E. Tozlu	5	74369 min	20.5 /90	00 /90	92.2 /90	30.7 /90	20.5 /90	10.2 /90
Miguel Cardoso	3	34102 min	00 /90	00 /90	32.6 /90	10.9 /90	00 /90	00 /90
Gyrano Kerk	3	3297 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.9 /90	10.9 /90	10.9 /90	32.8 /90
I. Diabate	3	2883 min	00 /90	00 /90	33.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90	11.1 /90
Fernando Andrade	2	4284 min	00 /90	00 /90	11.1 /90	11.1 /90	11.1 /90	00 /90
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Erzurumspor FK — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Erzurumspor FK before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
A. Gerxhaliu n 5	90	0.4 2/0	0 0/0
B. Baiye n 5	90	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
N. Mujakić n 5	85.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
O. Ovacıklı n 5	80	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
M. Rodríguez n 5	78	0.7 3/0	0 0/0
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Erzurumspor FK — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Erzurumspor FK before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
B. Baiye n 5	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Gerxhaliu n 5	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
N. Mujakić n 5	85.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
O. Ovacıklı n 5	80	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Rodríguez n 5	78	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Samsunspor

Samsunspor Goalkeeper

Samsunspor — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Okan Kocuk	5	90450 min	234.6 /90	112.2 /90	00 /90

Samsunspor — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Samsunspor before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Okan Kocuk n 8	90	4.1 8/7

Samsunspor Defensive

Samsunspor — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
L. Tómasson	5	90450 min	81.6 /90	71.4 /90	00 /90	153 /90	81.6 /90	10.2 /90
J. Mendes	5	90449 min	71.4 /90	61.2 /90	10.2 /90	193.8 /90	51 /90	00 /90
G. Guarino	3	90270 min	51.7 /90	20.7 /90	20.7 /90	144.7 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
T. Borevković	3	75225 min	31.2 /90	20.8 /90	31.2 /90	124.8 /90	10.4 /90	10.4 /90
Badra Diabbate Ali	2	90180 min	21 /90	10.5 /90	21 /90	115.5 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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Samsunspor — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Samsunspor before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
E. Kılınç n 8	89.4	1.6 5/3	0.8 4/2	—
L. Tómasson n 8	90	1.5 6/3	0.4 3/0	O. Ovacıklı
Okan Kocuk n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
J. Mendes n 8	88.9	1.4 6/5	0.8 3/3	N. Mujakić
C. Yüksel n 8	89.5	0.9 4/2	1.9 7/6	M. Rodríguez
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Samsunspor — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Samsunspor before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
L. Tómasson n 8	90	1.3 6/3
E. Kılınç n 8	89.4	0.8 4/1
J. Mendes n 8	88.9	1.3 7/3
C. Yüksel n 8	89.5	3 8/6
Saikuba Jarju n 5	81.4	0.4 2/0
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Samsunspor Attacking

Samsunspor — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Saikuba Jarju	5	81407 min	00 /90	20.4 /90	61.3 /90	10.2 /90	51.1 /90	51.1 /90
Fatih Kaya	3	42125 min	10.7 /90	10.7 /90	42.9 /90	21.4 /90	10.7 /90	10.7 /90
Marius	1	9090 min	11 /90	00 /90	33 /90	11 /90	11 /90	11 /90
Marius Mouandilmadji	1	9090 min	00 /90	00 /90	33 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
M. Bayo	1	2222 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	14.1 /90	14.1 /90
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Samsunspor — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Samsunspor before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
E. Kılınç n 8	89.4	1 4/3	0.3 2/0
L. Tómasson n 8	90	0.8 4/2	0.3 1/1
Okan Kocuk n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Mendes n 8	88.9	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
C. Yüksel n 8	89.5	1.1 5/4	0.5 4/0
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Samsunspor — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Samsunspor before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
E. Kılınç n 8	89.4	0.1 1/0	0.5 4/0
L. Tómasson n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Okan Kocuk n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Mendes n 8	88.9	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
C. Yüksel n 8	89.5	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Erzurumspor FK		Samsunspor
42%	Possession	58%
0.72	Expected goals (xG)	0.36
8	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	2
4	Shots off target	6
2	Blocked shots	0
6	Shots inside the box	2
3	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
11	Fouls	14
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Saves	1
414	Passes	584
82%	Pass accuracy	87%

Erzurumspor FK Player Stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
E. Taşkıran	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
A. Gerxhaliu	90	0	0	0	0	2	0	7.3
M. Yumlu	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.6
N. Mujakić	90	0	1	0	0	2	0	7.2
G. Giorbelidze	90	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.6
E. Owusu	90	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.6
B. Baiye	90	0	0	0	0	5	Y	7
O. Ovacıklı	82	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.2
Miguel Cardoso	66	1	1	1	2	1	Y	7.9
E. Tozlu	66	0	1	1	1	1	0	6.7
M. Rodríguez	57	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
S. Akgün sub	33	0	1	0	1	0	0	6.7
I. Diabate sub	24	0	2	0	0	0	0	6.7
Gyrano Kerk sub	24	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.9
F. Ebosele sub	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7

Samsunspor Player Stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Okan Kocuk	90	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
J. Mendes	90	1	1	0	2	0	6.2
S. Eraković	90	0	0	0	1	0	7.2
G. Guarino	90	1	0	0	2	0	6.9
L. Tómasson	90	1	0	0	0	0	6
C. Yüksel	90	2	1	1	0	0	6.9
E. Kılınç	90	0	0	2	0	Y	6.3
M. Bayo	90	1	0	0	0	0	6.2
S. Onur	79	2	0	0	1	Y	6.6
E. Watt	65	0	0	1	0	0	6.7
Saikuba Jarju	45	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
T. Coulibaly sub	45	0	0	1	1	0	6.7
Y. Sekongo sub	25	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
Y. Kayan sub	11	0	0	0	0	0	7.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Erzurumspor FK v Samsunspor — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Erzurumspor FKLLDWL

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.4 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

SamsunsporDWLLL

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1.2 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

League standing · 2026/27

Erzurumspor FK#11 pos14 pts10 pl-6 GD

Samsunspor#17 pos7 pts11 pl-15 GD

Goals per game

Erzurumspor FK scored0.9

Samsunspor scored1

Erzurumspor FK conceded1.5

Samsunspor conceded2.36

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Erzurumspor FK v Samsunspor?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Erzurumspor FK v Samsunspor was Draw or Away (best price 1.52 at Betano).
What is the recent form of Erzurumspor FK and Samsunspor?: Recent form — Erzurumspor FK 1W 1D 3L; Samsunspor 1W 1D 3L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 4 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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