Atletico Madrid v Bayern München prediction

UEFA Champions League · Tue, 03 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT · Metropolitano Stadium

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 14:18 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Atletico Madrid · Bayern München

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Atletico Madrid v Bayern München, UEFA Champions League on Tue, 03 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 66.8% of 578 landed (95% range 62.8–70.5%); it had given them 76.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Atletico Madrid host Bayern München in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 3 November (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

14 of Bayern München’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (93%).

Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in their last nine matches in all competitions. Bayern München are unbeaten in at least their last 15 matches in all competitions. Atletico Madrid have scored in 10 consecutive matches in all competitions. Bayern München have scored in nine consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Nine of Atletico Madrid’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in seven of Atletico Madrid’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, Atletico Madrid have five wins, one draw and no defeats in their last 6 home matches in all competitions — 2.67 points per game, scoring 2.17 and conceding 0.50.

Both teams scored in 11 of Bayern München’s last 15 results in all competitions (73%). Away from home, Bayern München have four wins, three draws and no defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 2.14 points per game, scoring 2.29 and conceding 1.29.

Atletico Madrid (16th) and Bayern München (14th) are one point apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Bayern München the stronger side, 219 rating points above Atletico Madrid (Bayern München 2176, Atletico Madrid 1957, after at least 86 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 1 December 2020, finished Atletico Madrid 1–1 Bayern Munich.

Team news

Predicted Atletico Madrid XI (4-4-2): J. Oblak, Á. Grimaldo, D. Hancko, M. Llorente, M. Pubill, A. Baena, G. Simeone, M. Hjulmand, P. Barrios, J. Alvarez, L. Kang-In — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Álex Grimaldo (4.8 per match over 13 appearances, four goals and two assists) and Giuliano Simeone (4.1 per match over 14 appearances, three goals and two assists) have been Atletico Madrid’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Atletico Madrid (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Álex Grimaldo averages 2.0 tackles per 90 over 1196 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances. Giuliano Simeone averages 1.4 key passes per 90 over 1455 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Bayern München XI (4-2-3-1): J. Urbig, J. Stanišić, J. Tah, D. Upamecano, N. Brown, T. Bischof, M. Olise, L. Karl, A. Pavlović, I. Saibari, H. Kane — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Michael Olise (10.4 per match over 12 appearances, 12 goals and six assists) and Harry Kane (7.5 per match over 12 appearances, 10 goals and seven assists) have been Bayern München’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Bayern München (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Michael Olise averages 3.4 key passes per 90 over 1978 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Harry Kane averages 3.4 shots per 90 over 2041 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Tue, 03 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT · UEFA Champions League · Metropolitano Stadium
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 2): Atletico Madrid 0 · draws 1 · Bayern München 1 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: Atletico Madrid 4W 1D 0L · Bayern München 3W 2D 0L

Atletico Madrid v Bayern München (UEFA Champions League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 31 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.88 / 3.88

Goals

against 0.38 / 1.38 · 0 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

5.63 / 8.5

Corners

against 3.5 / 3.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

6.25 / 9.75

Shots on target

against 3.38 / 3.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.13 / 1.25

Cards

against 1.75 / 2.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 31 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 31 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Atletico Madrid for / against	Line	Bayern München for / against
Goals scored	1.88 for · 0.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.5our book	3.88 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.63 for · 3.5 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	8.5 for · 3.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	17.13 for · 11.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	23 for · 9.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	6.25 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	9.75 for · 3.5 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.63 for · 10 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.25 for · 8.38 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.13 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.25 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid Goalkeeper

Atletico Madrid — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Jan Oblak	14	901260 min	402.9 /90	100.7 /90	00 /90

Atletico Madrid — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico Madrid before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Jan Oblak n 8	90	3 7/4

Atletico Madrid Defensive

Atletico Madrid — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Marcos Llorente	14	741040 min	302.6 /90	141.2 /90	60.5 /90	504.3 /90	141.2 /90	10.1 /90
Dávid Hancko	13	851108 min	141.1 /90	100.8 /90	100.8 /90	423.4 /90	20.2 /90	10.1 /90
Álex Grimaldo	13	821061 min	232 /90	90.8 /90	20.2 /90	463.9 /90	80.7 /90	00 /90
Marc Pubill	12	74883 min	161.6 /90	70.7 /90	30.3 /90	454.6 /90	121.2 /90	40.4 /90
Cristian Romero	8	75602 min	121.8 /90	81.2 /90	20.3 /90	385.7 /90	50.7 /90	20.3 /90
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Atletico Madrid — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico Madrid before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Jan Oblak n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
Marcos Llorente n 8	83.1	0.9 5/2	0.3 2/0	—
Giuliano Simeone n 8	73.1	1.8 7/3	2.5 7/5	—
Alex Baena n 8	67	1.7 5/3	1.3 6/2	—
Dávid Hancko n 8	82.3	0.1 1/0	0 0/0	—
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Atletico Madrid — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico Madrid before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Marcos Llorente n 8	83.1	2.6 8/5
Giuliano Simeone n 8	73.1	1.8 6/3
Alex Baena n 8	67	0.8 5/0
Dávid Hancko n 8	82.3	1.4 5/3
Álex Grimaldo n 8	83.8	1.5 6/3
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Atletico Madrid Attacking

Atletico Madrid — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Lee Kang-In	13	63818 min	20.2 /90	10.1 /90	182 /90	70.8 /90	182 /90	182 /90
Ademola Lookman	13	53690 min	20.3 /90	10.1 /90	91.2 /90	40.5 /90	141.8 /90	40.5 /90
Julián Alvarez	10	57569 min	20.3 /90	20.3 /90	213.3 /90	111.7 /90	121.9 /90	203.2 /90
Jonathan David	9	45409 min	30.7 /90	20.4 /90	132.9 /90	102.2 /90	102.2 /90	10.2 /90
Arnau Ortiz	4	34135 min	00 /90	00 /90	21.3 /90	00 /90	42.7 /90	21.3 /90
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Atletico Madrid — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico Madrid before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Jan Oblak n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Marcos Llorente n 8	83.1	0.5 3/1	0.5 3/1
Giuliano Simeone n 8	73.1	0.9 4/2	0.3 2/0
Alex Baena n 8	67	2 7/3	1.2 6/1
Dávid Hancko n 8	82.3	1.2 6/2	0.3 2/0
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Atletico Madrid — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico Madrid before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Jan Oblak n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Marcos Llorente n 8	83.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
Giuliano Simeone n 8	73.1	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
Alex Baena n 8	67	0.3 2/0	0.5 3/0
Dávid Hancko n 8	82.3	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
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Bayern München

Bayern München Goalkeeper

Bayern München — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
M. Neuer	7	89621 min	142 /90	20.3 /90	00 /90
J. Urbig	6	90540 min	111.8 /90	61 /90	00 /90

Bayern München — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayern München before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Neuer n 8	85.1	1.9 5/3
J. Urbig n 8	82.5	2 4/3

Bayern München Defensive

Bayern München — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
J. Stanišić	11	65718 min	91.1 /90	40.5 /90	30.4 /90	303.8 /90	50.6 /90	00 /90
A. Davies	11	60662 min	121.6 /90	81.1 /90	10.1 /90	516.9 /90	20.3 /90	00 /90
D. Upamecano	10	81810 min	262.9 /90	111.2 /90	30.3 /90	596.6 /90	111.2 /90	20.2 /90
J. Tah	10	80801 min	111.2 /90	80.9 /90	20.2 /90	323.6 /90	111.2 /90	10.1 /90
N. Brown	10	64635 min	101.4 /90	00 /90	10.1 /90	233.3 /90	60.9 /90	10.1 /90
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Bayern München — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayern München before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
H. Kane n 8	84.5	0.5 4/0	0.5 4/0	—
M. Olise n 8	85.1	0.3 2/0	3.2 8/7	—
I. Saibari n 8	53.5	1.1 4/1	0.4 2/0	—
L. Díaz n 8	66.5	1.7 6/4	0.5 2/1	—
J. Stanišić n 8	68	0.7 3/1	0.8 3/1	—
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Bayern München — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayern München before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
H. Kane n 8	84.5	0.4 3/0
M. Olise n 8	85.1	1.3 5/2
I. Saibari n 8	53.5	1.7 6/2
L. Díaz n 8	66.5	0.7 2/2
J. Stanišić n 8	68	0.8 4/1
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Bayern München Attacking

Bayern München — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
H. Kane	12	81973 min	100.9 /90	70.6 /90	423.9 /90	201.8 /90	252.3 /90	100.9 /90
M. Olise	12	81972 min	121.1 /90	60.6 /90	444.1 /90	302.8 /90	474.4 /90	363.3 /90
I. Saibari	12	50601 min	30.4 /90	30.4 /90	253.7 /90	101.5 /90	131.9 /90	131.9 /90
L. Díaz	11	72793 min	50.6 /90	10.1 /90	202.3 /90	151.7 /90	192.2 /90	171.9 /90
J. Kimmich	10	82816 min	00 /90	40.4 /90	80.9 /90	30.3 /90	182 /90	10.1 /90
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Bayern München — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayern München before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
H. Kane n 8	84.5	4.1 8/8	2.1 8/4
M. Olise n 8	85.1	4.1 8/8	2.9 8/6
I. Saibari n 8	53.5	4.6 7/7	1.9 5/3
L. Díaz n 8	66.5	2.2 7/3	1.9 7/2
J. Stanišić n 8	68	0.5 3/0	0.2 1/0
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Bayern München — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bayern München before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
H. Kane n 8	84.5	1.1 6/2	0.9 5/2
M. Olise n 8	85.1	1.2 5/3	0.7 5/0
I. Saibari n 8	53.5	0.6 3/0	0.2 1/0
L. Díaz n 8	66.5	0.7 2/1	0.2 1/0
J. Stanišić n 8	68	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Atletico Madrid v Bayern München — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Atletico MadridWWDWW

Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 1.4 scored / 0.2 conceded per game

Bayern MünchenDWDWW

Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 2

Atletico Madrid 0 · 1 draw · Bayern München 1 · 3 goals/game

2020-12-01 Atletico Madrid 1–1 Bayern Munich
2020-10-21 Bayern Munich 4–0 Atletico Madrid

League standing · 2026/27

Atletico Madrid#16 pos4 pts3 pl+1 GD

Bayern München#14 pos5 pts3 pl+5 GD

Goals per game

Atletico Madrid scored1.33

Bayern München scored3.33

Atletico Madrid conceded1

Bayern München conceded1.67

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Atletico Madrid v Bayern München?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Atletico Madrid v Bayern München is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Bayern München?: In their last 2 meetings, Atletico Madrid won 0, Bayern München won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Atletico Madrid and Bayern München?: Recent form — Atletico Madrid 4W 1D 0L; Bayern München 3W 2D 0L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 31 Oct 2026, 14:18 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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