Villarreal v Paris Saint-Germain prediction

UEFA Champions League · Tue, 03 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT · Estadio de la Ceramica

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:17 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Villarreal · Paris Saint-Germain

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Away win the free pick for Villarreal v Paris Saint-Germain, UEFA Champions League on Tue, 03 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT.

Free pick

Away win

Best price: 1.62 at Betfair

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Away win in the last 90 days, 86.2% of 130 landed (95% range 79.2–91.1%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Villarreal host Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 3 November (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Paris Saint-Germain to win, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Both teams scored in 12 of Paris Saint-Germain’s last 15 results in all competitions (80%).

Paris Saint-Germain have won their last nine matches in all competitions. Paris Saint-Germain have scored in 12 consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

11 of Villarreal’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in 10 of Villarreal’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Villarreal have two wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 6 home matches in all competitions — 1.17 points per game, scoring 1.50 and conceding 1.33.

11 of Paris Saint-Germain’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Away from home, Paris Saint-Germain have five wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 2.13 points per game, scoring 2.38 and conceding 1.25.

Villarreal (19th) and Paris Saint-Germain (first) are six points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Paris Saint-Germain the stronger side, 772 rating points above Villarreal (Paris Saint-Germain 2315, Villarreal 1543, after at least 23 rated matches each).

Team news

Predicted Villarreal XI (4-2-3-1): P. Gulácsi, R. Veiga, S. Mouriño, P. Navarro, S. Cardona, S. Comesaña, T. Buchanan, C. Macia, P. Gueye, A. Moleiro, G. Mikautadze — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, S. Mouriño (3.7 per match over 11 appearances, two goals) and Nicolas Pépé (3.7 per match over eight appearances, two goals) have been Villarreal’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Villarreal (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), S. Mouriño averages 2.8 tackles per 90 over 880 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances. Nicolas Pépé averages 1.9 key passes per 90 over 895 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Paris Saint-Germain XI (4-3-3): M. Safonov, A. Hakimi, I. Zabarnyi, L. Hernández, W. Pacho, Vitinha, F. Ruiz, J. Neves, F. Torres, D. Doué, M. Akliouche — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Désiré Doué (6.4 per match over 12 appearances, four goals and four assists) and O. Dembélé (5.4 per match over 10 appearances, four goals and six assists) have been Paris Saint-Germain’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Paris Saint-Germain (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Désiré Doué averages 3.3 shots per 90 over 1473 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances. O. Dembélé averages 3.6 shots per 90 over 1399 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Tue, 03 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT · UEFA Champions League · Estadio de la Ceramica
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Recent form: Villarreal 2W 1D 2L · Paris Saint-Germain 5W 0D 0L

Villarreal v Paris Saint-Germain (UEFA Champions League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 31 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2 / 3

Goals

against 1.13 / 1 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

6 / 4.13

Corners

against 5 / 4.5 · 3 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 7 matches

4.71 / 9.5

Shots on target

against 3.43 / 5.5 · 1 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 7 matches

2.29 / 0.75

Cards

against 3.29 / 1.63 · 3 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 30 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 30 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Villarreal for / against	Line	Paris Saint-Germain for / against
Goals scored	2 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5	3.5our book	3 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6 for · 5 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	4.13 for · 4.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	17 for · 10.14 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	19.38 for · 15.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.71 for · 3.43 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	9.5 for · 5.5 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.86 for · 11.86 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	7.5 for · 12.38 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.29 for · 3.29 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	0.75 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5

Villarreal

Villarreal Goalkeeper

Villarreal — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
P. Gulácsi	9	90810 min	283.1 /90	91 /90	00 /90
Luíz Júnior	5	90450 min	81.6 /90	91.8 /90	00 /90

Villarreal — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Villarreal before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
P. Gulácsi n 8	90	3 5/4
Luíz Júnior n 8	90	2.3 6/3

Villarreal Defensive

Villarreal — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Renato Veiga	13	901170 min	40.3 /90	120.9 /90	141.1 /90	241.8 /90	70.5 /90	30.2 /90
A. Freeman	10	67670 min	212.8 /90	81.1 /90	10.1 /90	537.1 /90	40.5 /90	10.1 /90
S. Mouriño	9	85766 min	273.2 /90	131.5 /90	30.4 /90	566.6 /90	161.9 /90	40.5 /90
Sergi Cardona	9	72646 min	182.5 /90	81.1 /90	10.1 /90	385.3 /90	121.7 /90	20.3 /90
Pau Navarro	8	87692 min	141.8 /90	60.8 /90	30.4 /90	263.4 /90	81 /90	20.3 /90
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Villarreal — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Villarreal before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Alberto Moleiro n 8	69	0.7 2/1	0.5 2/1	—
G. Mikautadze n 8	41.8	0.5 2/0	1.6 3/3	—
Renato Veiga n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0	—
P. Gueye n 8	70.1	1 4/1	2.1 7/4	—
Santi Comesaña n 8	73.8	1.5 7/2	1.4 5/2	—
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Villarreal — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Villarreal before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Alberto Moleiro n 8	69	0.3 2/0
G. Mikautadze n 8	41.8	0.8 2/1
Renato Veiga n 8	90	0.4 3/0
P. Gueye n 8	70.1	1 4/2
Santi Comesaña n 8	73.8	1.5 4/3
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Villarreal Attacking

Villarreal — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
G. Mikautadze	14	57793 min	50.6 /90	20.2 /90	232.6 /90	161.8 /90	141.6 /90	171.9 /90
Ayoze Pérez	11	58638 min	10.1 /90	30.4 /90	162.3 /90	81.1 /90	142 /90	71 /90
Gerard Moreno	11	45497 min	20.4 /90	10.2 /90	101.8 /90	30.5 /90	142.5 /90	91.6 /90
T. Oluwaseyi	6	40240 min	20.8 /90	00 /90	103.8 /90	51.9 /90	31.1 /90	10.4 /90
Alberto Moleiro	14	59823 min	20.2 /90	40.4 /90	182 /90	80.9 /90	262.8 /90	121.3 /90
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Villarreal — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Villarreal before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Alberto Moleiro n 8	69	2.4 7/4	1 3/3
G. Mikautadze n 8	41.8	2.7 7/2	2.2 6/2
Renato Veiga n 8	90	0.5 3/1	0 0/0
P. Gueye n 8	70.1	2.2 5/4	0.8 3/2
Santi Comesaña n 8	73.8	0.5 3/0	0.3 2/0
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Villarreal — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Villarreal before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Alberto Moleiro n 8	69	0.3 2/0	0.5 2/1
G. Mikautadze n 8	41.8	1.1 4/0	0 0/0
Renato Veiga n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
P. Gueye n 8	70.1	0.3 1/1	0 0/0
Santi Comesaña n 8	73.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Paris Saint-Germain

Paris Saint-Germain Goalkeeper

Paris Saint-Germain — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
M. Safonov	14	901266 min	443.1 /90	80.6 /90	00 /90

Paris Saint-Germain — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Paris Saint-Germain before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Safonov n 8	90	4.4 8/7

Paris Saint-Germain Defensive

Paris Saint-Germain — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
A. Hakimi	13	77999 min	171.5 /90	121.1 /90	20.2 /90	474.2 /90	40.4 /90	20.2 /90
W. Pacho	11	88970 min	171.6 /90	121.1 /90	40.4 /90	363.3 /90	40.4 /90	00 /90
L. Hernández	9	60536 min	101.7 /90	50.8 /90	00 /90	193.2 /90	40.7 /90	10.2 /90
Marquinhos	8	87695 min	60.8 /90	20.3 /90	10.1 /90	222.8 /90	50.6 /90	10.1 /90
I. Zabarnyi	7	82571 min	40.6 /90	50.8 /90	10.2 /90	223.5 /90	30.5 /90	00 /90
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Paris Saint-Germain — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Paris Saint-Germain before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
M. Safonov n 8	90	0 0/0	0.5 4/0	—
M. Akliouche n 8	60	2.1 5/3	0.6 3/0	—
Vitinha n 8	75.9	0.6 4/0	0.6 3/1	—
A. Hakimi n 8	67.9	0.5 2/1	1 5/1	—
W. Zaïre-Emery n 8	74	0.5 2/1	0.5 2/1	—
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Paris Saint-Germain — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Paris Saint-Germain before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
M. Akliouche n 8	60	1.9 5/3
Vitinha n 8	75.9	0.9 4/2
A. Hakimi n 8	67.9	1.7 4/2
W. Zaïre-Emery n 8	74	1.7 6/4
D. Doué n 8	55.6	2.8 8/4
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Paris Saint-Germain Attacking

Paris Saint-Germain — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
M. Akliouche	14	61852 min	20.2 /90	10.1 /90	171.8 /90	70.7 /90	171.8 /90	91 /90
D. Doué	12	63757 min	40.5 /90	40.5 /90	313.7 /90	151.8 /90	242.9 /90	263.1 /90
Ferran Torres	11	66730 min	70.9 /90	10.1 /90	283.5 /90	162 /90	81 /90	10.1 /90
K. Kvaratskhelia	11	56618 min	20.3 /90	10.1 /90	243.5 /90	111.6 /90	142 /90	172.5 /90
O. Dembélé	10	48479 min	40.8 /90	61.1 /90	356.6 /90	122.3 /90	234.3 /90	122.3 /90
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Paris Saint-Germain — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Paris Saint-Germain before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
M. Safonov n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Akliouche n 8	60	1.9 6/4	1.1 4/2
Vitinha n 8	75.9	1.3 5/2	0.7 3/1
A. Hakimi n 8	67.9	2.8 6/5	1.5 5/1
W. Zaïre-Emery n 8	74	0.6 3/1	0.2 1/0
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Paris Saint-Germain — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Paris Saint-Germain before kick-off, to 30 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
M. Safonov n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Akliouche n 8	60	0.4 2/0	0 0/0
Vitinha n 8	75.9	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
A. Hakimi n 8	67.9	0.5 1/1	0.5 2/1
W. Zaïre-Emery n 8	74	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Villarreal v Paris Saint-Germain — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

VillarrealDLWWL

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Paris Saint-GermainWWWWW

Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · 3.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

League standing · 2026/27

Villarreal#19 pos3 pts3 pl0 GD

Paris Saint-Germain#1 pos9 pts3 pl+9 GD

Goals per game

Villarreal scored2.67

Paris Saint-Germain scored4.67

Villarreal conceded2.67

Paris Saint-Germain conceded1.67

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Villarreal v Paris Saint-Germain?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Villarreal v Paris Saint-Germain is Away win (best price 1.62 at Betfair).
What is the recent form of Villarreal and Paris Saint-Germain?: Recent form — Villarreal 2W 1D 2L; Paris Saint-Germain 5W 0D 0L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 31 Oct 2026, 06:17 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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