FC Midtjylland v Ajax prediction

UEFA Europa Conference League · Thu, 05 Nov 2026 17:45 GMT · MCH Arena

Updated 31 Oct 2026, 23:18 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for FC Midtjylland v Ajax, UEFA Europa Conference League on Thu, 05 Nov 2026 17:45 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 66.8% of 578 landed (95% range 62.8–70.5%); it had given them 76.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

FC Midtjylland host Ajax in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November (kick-off 17:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Ajax have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions. Ajax have won their last four matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Eight of FC Midtjylland’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in 10 of FC Midtjylland’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, FC Midtjylland have six wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.38 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.00.

11 of Ajax’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in 11 of Ajax’s last 15 results in all competitions (73%). Away from home, Ajax have six wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 2.38 points per game, scoring 3.13 and conceding 1.25.

FC Midtjylland (25th) and Ajax (13th) are two points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Ajax the stronger side, 45 rating points above FC Midtjylland (Ajax 1823, FC Midtjylland 1778, after at least 12 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 25 November 2020, finished Ajax 3–1 FC Midtjylland.

Team news

Predicted FC Midtjylland XI (3-1-4-2): N. Bakker, M. Bech Sorensen, O. Diao, A. Maxso, P. Billing, S. Johannesen, K. WÃ¤tjen, P. Bravo, J. Emefile, F. Etim, S. Iheanacho — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Darío Osorio (5.2 per match over nine appearances, two goals and three assists) and Philip Billing (4.7 per match over 17 appearances, two goals and four assists) have been FC Midtjylland’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for FC Midtjylland (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Darío Osorio averages 1.8 key passes per 90 over 1262 minutes, with a key pass in three of the last 10 appearances. Philip Billing averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 1380 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Ajax XI (4-3-3): M. ter Stegen, Y. Baas, L. Rosa, O. Wijndal, A. Bouwman, S. Amrabat, J. Mokio, J. Brandt, T. Arokodare, A. Ouazane, V. Tsygankov — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Mika Godts (8.0 per match over four appearances, one goal and three assists) and Toluwalase Arokodare (5.1 per match over 15 appearances, 10 goals and three assists) have been Ajax’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Ajax (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Mika Godts averages 2.2 shots per 90 over 946 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last 10 appearances. Toluwalase Arokodare averages 4.6 shots per 90 over 755 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Thu, 05 Nov 2026 17:45 GMT · UEFA Europa Conference League · MCH Arena
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 2): FC Midtjylland 0 · draws 0 · Ajax 2 · 3.5 goals/game
Recent form: FC Midtjylland 3W 1D 1L · Ajax 4W 0D 1L

FC Midtjylland v Ajax (UEFA Europa Conference League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 31 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.88 / 2.38

Goals

against 1.13 / 1.13 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.25

over 8 matches

4.57 / 5.63

Corners

against 3.86 / 5 · 1 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 7 matches

4.71 / 6.5

Shots on target

against 4.43 / 4 · 4 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 7 matches

1.29 / 2

Cards

against 2.29 / 1.63 · 1 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 31 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 31 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	FC Midtjylland for / against	Line	Ajax for / against
Goals scored	1.88 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5	3.25our book	2.38 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.57 for · 3.86 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	5.63 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	13.14 for · 15.57 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	18.88 for · 11.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.71 for · 4.43 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	6.5 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	12 for · 13.86 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	10.38 for · 12.13 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.29 for · 2.29 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	2 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5

FC Midtjylland

FC Midtjylland Goalkeeper

FC Midtjylland — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
E. Olafsson	13	901175 min	292.2 /90	110.8 /90	00 /90
N. Bakker	5	90450 min	163.2 /90	20.4 /90	00 /90

FC Midtjylland — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Midtjylland before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
E. Olafsson n 8	90	2.8 7/5
N. Bakker n 5	90	3.2 4/4

FC Midtjylland Defensive

FC Midtjylland — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
R. Kristensen	17	891510 min	372.2 /90	171 /90	60.4 /90	694.1 /90	140.8 /90	50.3 /90
M. Bech Sorensen	14	871220 min	161.2 /90	151.1 /90	60.4 /90	533.9 /90	161.2 /90	20.1 /90
Magnus Jensen	8	86690 min	60.8 /90	141.8 /90	111.4 /90	486.3 /90	111.4 /90	20.3 /90
M. Erlic	8	70557 min	81.3 /90	182.9 /90	61 /90	355.7 /90	81.3 /90	10.2 /90
Beni Junior	8	54433 min	71.5 /90	61.2 /90	10.2 /90	173.5 /90	61.2 /90	00 /90
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FC Midtjylland — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Midtjylland before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
R. Kristensen n 8	86.9	0.9 6/1	0.5 3/1	—
P. Billing n 8	87.9	1.3 5/3	2.3 8/7	—
P. Bravo n 8	78.8	0.6 3/1	0.7 4/1	—
F. Etim n 8	74.3	2.3 7/4	2.1 5/5	—
D. Castillo n 8	61.1	0.9 3/2	3.5 7/5	—
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FC Midtjylland — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Midtjylland before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
R. Kristensen n 8	86.9	3 8/7
P. Billing n 8	87.9	1.4 7/3
P. Bravo n 8	78.8	0.9 4/1
F. Etim n 8	74.3	0.9 4/2
D. Castillo n 8	61.1	1.7 5/3
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FC Midtjylland Attacking

FC Midtjylland — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
F. Etim	16	59942 min	60.6 /90	30.3 /90	313 /90	181.7 /90	131.2 /90	111.1 /90
S. Iheanacho	16	47749 min	50.6 /90	10.1 /90	222.6 /90	101.2 /90	50.6 /90	50.6 /90
Cho Gue-Sung	15	61910 min	50.5 /90	10.1 /90	181.8 /90	101 /90	70.7 /90	20.2 /90
Franculino	8	62495 min	30.5 /90	20.4 /90	71.3 /90	50.9 /90	101.8 /90	50.9 /90
M. Rajović	3	39116 min	00 /90	00 /90	43.1 /90	21.6 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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FC Midtjylland — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Midtjylland before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
R. Kristensen n 8	86.9	0.9 4/2	0.5 3/1
P. Billing n 8	87.9	1 6/2	0.4 3/0
P. Bravo n 8	78.8	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
F. Etim n 8	74.3	3.3 7/6	1.7 6/3
D. Castillo n 8	61.1	0.9 3/2	0.4 2/0
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FC Midtjylland — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Midtjylland before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
R. Kristensen n 8	86.9	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
P. Billing n 8	87.9	0.3 2/0	0.4 3/0
P. Bravo n 8	78.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
F. Etim n 8	74.3	0.6 4/0	0.2 1/0
D. Castillo n 8	61.1	0.4 2/0	0 0/0
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Ajax

Ajax Goalkeeper

Ajax — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
M. ter Stegen	14	901260 min	412.9 /90	161.1 /90	00 /90
M. Paes	4	92367 min	92.2 /90	51.2 /90	00 /90

Ajax — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Ajax before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. ter Stegen n 8	90	2.8 5/5
M. Paes n 8	90.9	2.2 5/4

Ajax Defensive

Ajax — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
A. Bouwman	15	851278 min	171.2 /90	282 /90	70.5 /90	473.3 /90	100.7 /90	20.1 /90
Y. Baas	14	811138 min	141.1 /90	211.7 /90	30.2 /90	493.9 /90	80.6 /90	30.2 /90
Caio Henrique	11	64706 min	121.5 /90	70.9 /90	00 /90	253.2 /90	70.9 /90	10.1 /90
Lucas Rosa	10	89886 min	282.8 /90	111.1 /90	80.8 /90	505.1 /90	151.5 /90	30.3 /90
O. Wijndal	10	72723 min	121.5 /90	111.4 /90	10.1 /90	324 /90	111.4 /90	00 /90
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Ajax — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Ajax before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Mokio n 8	69.3	1.9 5/4	0.5 3/0	—
O. Gloukh n 8	50.8	0.2 1/0	1.8 5/1	—
J. Brandt n 8	79.1	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0	—
D. Klaassen n 8	60.9	1.1 3/3	0.7 4/0	—
A. Ouazane n 8	40.1	1.4 3/1	3.9 6/5	—
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Ajax — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Ajax before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Mokio n 8	69.3	1.5 6/2
O. Gloukh n 8	50.8	0.7 3/0
J. Brandt n 8	79.1	0.7 4/1
D. Klaassen n 8	60.9	1.5 5/3
A. Ouazane n 8	40.1	1.4 5/0
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Ajax Attacking

Ajax — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
T. Arokodare	14	53747 min	101.2 /90	30.4 /90	394.7 /90	172 /90	101.2 /90	141.7 /90
Marcos Leonardo	13	40520 min	20.3 /90	00 /90	203.5 /90	81.4 /90	71.2 /90	20.3 /90
S. Berghuis	11	65717 min	20.3 /90	50.6 /90	253.1 /90	121.5 /90	303.8 /90	70.9 /90
K. Dolberg	8	54433 min	20.4 /90	10.2 /90	163.3 /90	91.9 /90	61.2 /90	10.2 /90
V. Tsygankov	7	46321 min	00 /90	10.3 /90	30.8 /90	10.3 /90	102.8 /90	30.8 /90
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Ajax — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Ajax before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Mokio n 8	69.3	1.8 7/3	0.5 2/1
O. Gloukh n 8	50.8	3.3 7/4	1.6 4/2
J. Brandt n 8	79.1	2 6/6	1.1 4/2
D. Klaassen n 8	60.9	2 6/5	0.9 3/2
A. Ouazane n 8	40.1	4.2 7/4	2 5/2
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Ajax — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Ajax before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Mokio n 8	69.3	0.3 1/1	0.2 1/0
O. Gloukh n 8	50.8	0 0/0	0.4 2/0
J. Brandt n 8	79.1	0.6 3/1	0.3 1/1
D. Klaassen n 8	60.9	0.4 2/0	0.2 1/0
A. Ouazane n 8	40.1	0.6 2/0	0.3 1/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind FC Midtjylland v Ajax — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

FC MidtjyllandDWLWW

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

AjaxLWWWW

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.2 scored / 1 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 2

FC Midtjylland 0 · 0 draws · Ajax 2 · 3.5 goals/game

2020-11-25 Ajax 3–1 FC Midtjylland
2020-11-03 FC Midtjylland 1–2 Ajax

League standing · 2026/27

FC Midtjylland#25 pos1 pts2 pl-1 GD

Ajax#13 pos3 pts2 pl+1 GD

Goals per game

FC Midtjylland scored0.5

Ajax scored1.5

FC Midtjylland conceded1

Ajax conceded1

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win FC Midtjylland v Ajax?: TACTIX’s free model pick for FC Midtjylland v Ajax is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Midtjylland and Ajax?: In their last 2 meetings, FC Midtjylland won 0, Ajax won 2 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of FC Midtjylland and Ajax?: Recent form — FC Midtjylland 3W 1D 1L; Ajax 4W 0D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 31 Oct 2026, 23:18 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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