Heart of Midlothian v FC Nordsjaelland result

Full-time · Heart of Midlothian 1–1 FC Nordsjaelland

UEFA Europa Conference League · · Tynecastle Park

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Heart of Midlothian · FC Nordsjaelland

The model’s pre-match pick

Heart of Midlothian 1–1 FC Nordsjaelland — this UEFA Europa Conference League match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.55 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 643 landed (95% range 61.9–69.2%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Heart of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland drew 1–1 at Tynecastle Park in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 15 October. Heart of Midlothian have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Heart of Midlothian led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Heart of Midlothian: Oisin McEntee (33’, assisted by Jamie McCart); FC Nordsjaelland: Nicklas Røjkjær (86’, assisted by Juho Lahteenmaki).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Nicklas Røjkjær’s goal on 86 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Heart of Midlothian out-shot FC Nordsjaelland 20 to 11 and created the better chances, 1.81 xG to 0.64 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

Discipline

D. Kos showed six yellow cards — against 2.5 yellows a game across the last 15 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Heart of Midlothian: Cláudio Braga (5’), James wilson (47’) and Harry Milne (66’); FC Nordsjaelland: Victor Nelsson (43’), Ibrahim Adel (55’) and Juho Lahteenmaki (89’).

What it changes

Heart of Midlothian are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. FC Nordsjaelland are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Oisin McEntee (Heart Of Midlothian) 7.1, Jamie McCart (Heart Of Midlothian) 7.0 and Josh Mcpake (Heart Of Midlothian) 5.8 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Heart of Midlothian next travel to Celtic on 18 October 2026.

FC Nordsjaelland next host CSKA Sofia on 22 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Heart of Midlothian: Celtic v Heart of Midlothian, Sunday 18 October — the preview. Next for FC Nordsjaelland: FC Nordsjaelland v CSKA Sofia, Thursday 22 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Heart of Midlothian 1–1 FC Nordsjaelland · UEFA Europa Conference League
  • Venue: Tynecastle Park · Edinburgh
  • Referee: D. Kos
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: Heart of Midlothian 3W 1D 1L · FC Nordsjaelland 2W 2D 1L

Heart of Midlothian 1–1 FC Nordsjaelland (UEFA Europa Conference League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2.25 / 1.75
Goals
against 0.88 / 1.38 · 1 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
7.43 / 4
Corners
against 4.71 / 3.43 · 1 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
5.57 / 4.14
Shots on target
against 2.86 / 5 · 0 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.14 / 2.29
Cards
against 2.86 / 2.14 · 4 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameHeart of Midlothian for / againstLineFC Nordsjaelland for / against
Goals scored
2.25 for · 0.88 against n 8
3our book
1.75 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
7.43 for · 4.71 against n 7
9.5standard
4 for · 3.43 against n 7
Shots
16 for · 12.57 against n 7
19.5standard
15.57 for · 17 against n 7
Shots on target
5.57 for · 2.86 against n 7
8.5standard
4.14 for · 5 against n 7
Fouls committed
13.57 for · 16.43 against n 7
21.5standard
11.43 for · 11.43 against n 7
Cards shown
2.14 for · 2.86 against n 7
3.5standard
2.29 for · 2.14 against n 7

Referee: D. Kos.

Heart of Midlothian
Heart of Midlothian — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
P. Kabore n 836.4
3.15/4
1.96/0
—
S. Guendouz n 839.6
2.86/2
2.67/2
—
Ageu n 824.3
2.34/1
1.94/0
—
L. Mendy n 876.6
2.15/4
0.95/1
—
J. Williams n 840
25/1
1.12/1
—
Heart of Midlothian — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Cláudio Braga n 882.5
2.97/6
1.15/2
S. Guendouz n 839.6
2.64/2
0.62/0
Josh Mcpake n 872.1
2.36/4
0.84/1
T. Renaud n 539
2.33/2
0.92/0
P. Kabore n 836.4
2.26/1
1.54/1
Heart of Midlothian — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
R. Mato n 824.5
0.51/0
0.51/0
Josh Mcpake n 872.1
0.32/0
0.64/0
C. Miller n 870.6
0.52/1
0.21/0
James wilson n 863.9
0.74/0
00/0
Sabah Kerjota n 841.3
0.31/0
0.31/0
Heart of Midlothian — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
T. Renaud n 539
4.64/2
Sabah Kerjota n 841.3
3.87/3
H. Milne n 868
3.17/6
C. Borchgrevink n 851.5
3.16/3
R. Mato n 824.5
2.84/2
Heart of Midlothian — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Beau Reus n 893.8
25/4
FC Nordsjaelland
FC Nordsjaelland — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Ibrahim Adel n 863.3
2.18/3
1.66/3
—
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen n 837.8
2.16/1
0.31/0
—
Noah Markmann n 884.4
1.67/3
0.73/1
—
A. Lind n 857.4
1.64/2
2.27/3
—
P. Amoako n 856.4
1.65/3
1.24/1
—
FC Nordsjaelland — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
O. Solbakken n 867.4
35/5
25/5
P. Amoako n 856.4
38/4
1.66/2
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen n 837.8
2.76/2
2.15/1
A. Lind n 857.4
2.47/4
0.84/0
V. Berthelsen n 842.5
2.15/3
0.52/0
FC Nordsjaelland — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen n 837.8
1.24/0
0.31/0
A. Lind n 857.4
0.63/0
0.42/0
M. Walker n 834.4
12/1
00/0
O. Solbakken n 867.4
0.73/1
0.21/0
Lamine Sadio n 838.3
0.31/0
0.62/0
FC Nordsjaelland — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Justin Janssen n 884.4
48/6
Noah Markmann n 884.4
2.47/6
V. Berthelsen n 842.5
2.16/2
Lamine Sadio n 838.3
2.14/2
V. Nelsson n 890
24/3
FC Nordsjaelland — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Hansen n 890
3.48/6

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Heart of MidlothianFC Nordsjaelland
44%Possession56%
1.81Expected goals (xG)0.64
20Shots11
7Shots on target3
8Shots off target1
5Blocked shots7
12Shots inside the box6
6Corners7
1Offsides0
14Fouls14
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
2Saves6
375Passes497
76%Pass accuracy82%

Heart of Midlothian player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Beau Reus9000000006.3
C. Borchgrevink9000002307.3
M. Fagan-Walcott9000211207.3
J. McCart9001111108.3
L. Mendy9000201607.3
C. Miller9000112307.3
H. Milne87000011Y7.2
O. McEntee8710321308.3
Josh Mcpake8700322007.5
James wilson77001000Y6.3
Cláudio Braga70001010Y6.2
Sabah Kerjota sub2000000006.2
J. Williams sub1300100006.7
S. Kingsley sub30000000–
J. Altena sub30000000–
R. Mato sub30000000–

FC Nordsjaelland player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Hansen9000000008.7
T. Salquist9000000207.2
Noah Markmann9000000106.3
Justin Janssen9000001207.7
J. Lahteenmaki90010022Y6.9
Ibrahim Adel90000043Y7.7
P. Amoako9000211407.5
V. Nelsson83000000Y6.3
A. Lind7200112006.5
R. Norheim6400000006.2
M. Brink6400000206.9
N. Røjkjær sub2610110007.9
Lamine Sadio sub2600000006.6
Hjalte Boe Rasmussen sub1800000006.5
V. Berthelsen sub1000000006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Heart of Midlothian v FC Nordsjaelland — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Heart of MidlothianWWLDW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.4 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
FC NordsjaellandDWWLD
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
League standing · 2026/27
Heart of Midlothian#19 pos1 pts1 pl0 GD
FC Nordsjaelland#17 pos1 pts1 pl0 GD
Goals per game
Heart of Midlothian scored1
FC Nordsjaelland scored1
Heart of Midlothian conceded1
FC Nordsjaelland conceded1

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Heart of Midlothian v FC Nordsjaelland?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Heart of Midlothian v FC Nordsjaelland was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.55 at Betano).
What is the recent form of Heart of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland?
Recent form — Heart of Midlothian 3W 1D 1L; FC Nordsjaelland 2W 2D 1L.

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