Riga v Kairat Almaty result

Full-time · Riga 1–1 Kairat Almaty

UEFA Europa Conference League · Thu, 15 Oct 2026 17:45 BST · Skonto stadions

Updated 21 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

The model’s pre-match pick

Riga 1–1 Kairat Almaty — this UEFA Europa Conference League match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick

Home or Draw

Best price: 1.27 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 75.3% of 1553 landed (95% range 73.1–77.4%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Riga and Kairat Almaty drew 1–1 at Skonto stadions in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 15 October. Riga are unbeaten in their last eight matches in all competitions. Kairat Almaty are winless in their last five matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Kairat Almaty: Marc Gual (5’ pen); Riga: S. Oulad M'Hand (12’, assisted by Maksims Toņiševs).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with S. Oulad M'Hand’s goal on 12 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Riga out-shot Kairat Almaty 18 to 14 and created the better chances, 2.31 xG to 1.15 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

Discipline

The bookings — Kairat Almaty: Jaakko Oksanen (23’), Erkin Tapalov (56’) and Aleksandr Martynovich (90+2’).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, S. Oulad M'Hand (Riga) 7.9, Temirlan Anarbekov (Kairat Almaty) 7.8 and Iago Siqueira Augusto (Riga) 7.6 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Riga or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 75.3% of the time in the last 90 days (1170 of 1553).

Next up

Riga next travel to Pafos on 22 October 2026.

Kairat Almaty next host Panathinaikos on 22 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Riga: Pafos v Riga, Thursday 22 October — the preview. Next for Kairat Almaty: Kairat Almaty v Panathinaikos, Thursday 22 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Riga 1–1 Kairat Almaty · UEFA Europa Conference League
Venue: Skonto stadions · Riga
Referee: F. Lata
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Recent form: Riga 3W 2D 0L · Kairat Almaty 1W 0D 4L

Riga 1–1 Kairat Almaty (UEFA Europa Conference League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 21 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.88 / 0.63

Goals

against 1.25 / 1.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

7 / 4.67

Corners

against 3 / 6.33 · 2 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 3 matches

6 / 2.75

Shots on target

against 2.4 / 3.5 · 1 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 4 matches

2.8 / 3

Cards

against 2.4 / 3.25 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 4 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 27 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 27 August 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Riga for / against	Line	Kairat Almaty for / against
Goals scored	1.88 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5	2.5our book	0.63 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	7 for · 3 against n 5 Last 5	9.5standard	4.67 for · 6.33 against n 3 Last 5
Shots	11.2 for · 4 against n 5 Last 5	19.5standard	6.67 for · 3 against n 3 Last 5
Shots on target	6 for · 2.4 against n 5 Last 5	8.5standard	2.75 for · 3.5 against n 4 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.25 for · 11.25 against n 4 Last 5	21.5standard	10.67 for · 14.67 against n 3 Last 5
Cards shown	2.8 for · 2.4 against n 5 Last 5	3.5standard	3 for · 3.25 against n 4 Last 5

Referee: F. Lata.

Riga

Riga — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
R. Aouani n 8	63.6	2.5 5/4	1.8 5/3	—
M. Badamosi n 8	27.3	2.5 3/3	2.1 3/2	Edmilson
M. Diop n 3	62	1.9 3/1	0.5 1/0	—
A. Černomordijs n 8	76.9	1.8 8/4	0.9 4/2	—
A. Taiwo n 5	34.8	1.6 2/1	3.1 3/2	—

Riga — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Reginaldo Ramires n 3	49.3	3.6 2/2	1.2 2/0
M. Badamosi n 8	27.3	2.1 5/0	1.2 3/0
Iago Siqueira Augusto n 8	80.3	1.7 5/3	0.6 4/0
R. Aouani n 8	63.6	1.4 4/3	0.5 3/0
A. Černomordijs n 8	76.9	0.7 3/1	0.1 1/0

Riga — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Iago Siqueira Augusto n 8	80.3	0.1 1/0	0.3 2/0
M. Badamosi n 8	27.3	0 0/0	0.4 1/0
A. Ankrah n 3	86.3	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
A. Salazar n 4	86	0 0/0	0.3 1/0
A. Černomordijs n 8	76.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0

Riga — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
M. Toņiševs n 6	42.3	2.8 5/1
A. Taiwo n 5	34.8	2.6 2/2
A. Ankrah n 3	86.3	2.1 2/2
M. Diop n 3	62	1.9 1/1
Reginaldo Ramires n 3	49.3	1.8 2/1

Riga — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
K. Zviedris n 7	88.4	2.6 5/4

Kairat Almaty

Kairat Almaty — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Edmilson n 8	62.6	2.3 5/3	0.9 4/1	M. Badamosi
Gustavo Mendonça n 8	83.4	1.9 6/5	0.4 3/0	—
O. Baybek n 7	35.3	1.8 2/1	1.8 4/1	—
Lucas Africo n 8	82.5	1.2 4/2	1 5/2	—
Azamat Tuyakbaev n 4	41.5	1.1 2/0	0.5 1/0	—

Kairat Almaty — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
M. Birkurmanov n 3	22	4.1 2/1	1.4 1/0
Lucas Africo n 8	82.5	1.1 5/2	0.4 3/0
Marc Gual n 8	41.4	1.1 2/1	0 0/0
Edmilson n 8	62.6	0.9 3/1	0.5 2/1
O. Jukkola n 8	51.6	0.9 2/2	0.7 2/1

Kairat Almaty — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
O. Baybek n 7	35.3	0.4 1/0	0 0/0
A. Shirobokov n 6	78	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
Edmilson n 8	62.6	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
O. Jukkola n 8	51.6	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
J. Oksanen n 8	93.8	0.1 1/0	0 0/0

Kairat Almaty — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
O. Baybek n 7	35.3	4 5/3
Ismail Bekbolat n 5	30.4	3.6 4/2
Gustavo Mendonça n 8	83.4	2.8 6/5
Aleksandr Martynovich n 8	97.5	2 7/6
O. Jukkola n 8	51.6	2 5/2

Kairat Almaty — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 27 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
T. Anarbekov n 8	93.8	3.5 6/4

The next free picks, by email

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Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Riga		Kairat Almaty
64%	Possession	36%
2.31	Expected goals (xG)	1.15
18	Shots	14
8	Shots on target	4
6	Shots off target	5
4	Blocked shots	5
10	Shots inside the box	5
2	Corners	3
4	Offsides	0
8	Fouls	16
0	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
3	Saves	7
620	Passes	351
87%	Pass accuracy	77%

Riga player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
K. Piric	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	7.7
M. Toņiševs	90	0	1	0	0	1	0	7.3
B. Musah	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.2
K. Wassom	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.6
R. Jurkovskis	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.2
A. Ankrah	90	0	0	3	0	0	2	7
Iago Siqueira Augusto	90	0	0	1	1	0	5	7.9
S. Oulad M'Hand	90	1	0	3	3	2	2	7.9
M. Diop	86	0	0	2	1	2	1	6.6
R. Aouani	86	0	0	1	0	3	0	7.3
M. Badamosi	61	0	0	2	1	1	0	6.3
Reginaldo Ramires sub	29	0	0	2	2	1	0	7
C. Saco sub	8	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.9
Samuel Pedro sub	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3

Kairat Almaty player stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
T. Anarbekov	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	8.7
E. Tapalov	90	0	1	0	1	3	Y	7.3
Aleksandr Martynovich	90	0	0	0	0	3	Y	6.9
A. Shirobokov	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
Luís Mata	90	0	1	1	0	0	0	6.5
J. Oksanen	90	0	0	0	2	5	Y	6.3
Marc Gual	90	1	4	2	0	1	0	6.9
O. Jukkola	90	0	3	1	0	2	0	6.9
Gustavo Mendonça	79	0	0	0	1	1	0	7
A. Mrynskiy	79	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.6
Edmilson	73	0	0	0	2	1	0	6.9
Ismail Bekbolat sub	17	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
Damir Kasabulat sub	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
Azamat Tuyakbaev sub	11	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Riga v Kairat Almaty — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

RigaWWDDW

Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 1.8 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

Kairat AlmatyWLLLL

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 0.2 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

League standing · 2026/27

Riga#22 pos1 pts1 pl0 GD

Kairat Almaty#18 pos1 pts1 pl0 GD

Goals per game

Riga scored1

Kairat Almaty scored1

Riga conceded1

Kairat Almaty conceded1

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Riga v Kairat Almaty?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Riga v Kairat Almaty was Home or Draw (best price 1.27 at Betano).
What is the recent form of Riga and Kairat Almaty?: Recent form — Riga 3W 2D 0L; Kairat Almaty 1W 0D 4L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 21 Oct 2026, 04:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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