Sturm Graz v Marseille prediction
Team pages: Sturm Graz · Marseille
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Sturm Graz v Marseille, UEFA Europa League on Thu, 22 Oct 2026 17:45 BST.
The match
Sturm Graz host Marseille in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 22 October (kick-off 17:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.
Form and the table
Six of Sturm Graz’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in five of Sturm Graz’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). At home, Sturm Graz have four wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 2.00 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 0.57.
Eight of Marseille’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in seven of Marseille’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, Marseille have three wins, no draws and five defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.13 points per game, scoring 1.13 and conceding 1.75.
Sturm Graz (26th) and Marseille (32nd) are one point apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Marseille the stronger side, 197 rating points above Sturm Graz (Marseille 1624, Sturm Graz 1427, after at least 38 rated matches each).
Team news
Sturm Graz have nine names on the availability list: E. Soglo (out, Muscle Injury), F. Rozga (out, Muscle Injury), G. Mamageishvili (out, Injury), L. Grgic (out, Knee Injury), N. Geyrhofer (out, Off the roster), N. Weiper (out, Injury) and three more — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-20. Predicted Sturm Graz XI (4-4-2): D. Khudyakov, J. Heil, J. Quarshie, L. Balbo, A. Malic, V. Matoshi, J. Hödl, J. Stankovic, L. Weinhandl, B. Beganović, S. Seidl — derived from the last 2 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Emran Soglo (5.1 per match over nine appearances, one goal and one assist) and Oumar Diakité (4.9 per match over six appearances, six goals) have been Sturm Graz’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Sturm Graz (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Emran Soglo averages 3.8 tackles per 90 over 638 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last nine appearances. Oumar Diakité averages 3.3 shots per 90 over 332 minutes, with a shot in four of the last nine appearances.
Marseille have two names on the availability list: D. Cornelius (out, Hip Injury) and P. Hojbjerg (out, Muscle Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-10-20. Predicted Marseille XI (4-4-2): J. de Lange, T. Weah, N. Aguerd, Emerson, C. Egan-Riley, H. Abdelli, K. Abdallah, A. Gomes, A. Harit, N. Maupay, I. Paixão — derived from the last 2 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (4.3 per match over six appearances, one goal) and Amine Harit (4.0 per match over nine appearances, two goals and one assist) have been Marseille’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Marseille (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Pierre-Emile Højbjerg averages 0.9 key passes per 90 over 882 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances. Amine Harit averages 1.7 key passes per 90 over 686 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last nine appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · UEFA Europa League · Merkur-Arena
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Recent form: Sturm Graz 2W 1D 2L · Marseille 2W 0D 3L
Sturm Graz v Marseille (UEFA Europa League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 20 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Sturm Graz for / against | Line | Marseille for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.5 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 3our book | 1.38 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 6.13 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 5 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 14.13 for · 18.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 12.88 for · 16.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 4.88 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 4.25 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 13 for · 9 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 12 for · 10.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.88 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.5 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
Sturm Graz
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Rózga n 3 | 27.3 | 2.2 | 4.4 | — |
| N. Weiper n 8 | 31.6 | 2.1 | 0.4 | — |
| B. Beganović n 8 | 38.9 | 2 | 1.4 | — |
| Luca Weinhandl n 8 | 77.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | — |
| Gizo Mamageishvili n 8 | 42.1 | 1.9 | 1.3 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Diakité n 8 | 35.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 |
| Simon Seidl n 8 | 66.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| F. Rózga n 3 | 27.3 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Axel Kayombo n 8 | 37.1 | 2.1 | 0 |
| N. Weiper n 8 | 31.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Diakité n 8 | 35.9 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Simon Seidl n 8 | 66.6 | 0 | 0.8 |
| N. Weiper n 8 | 31.6 | 0.7 | 0 |
| E. Soglo n 8 | 69.9 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Seedy Jatta n 8 | 60 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| F. Rózga n 3 | 27.3 | 3.3 |
| E. Soglo n 8 | 69.9 | 3.2 |
| J. Heil n 8 | 88.3 | 2.7 |
| A. Malic n 8 | 69 | 2.6 |
| Petar Petrović n 7 | 51.1 | 2.3 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| A. Helac n 7 | 86 | 3.4 |
| Daniil Khudyakov n 8 | 82.6 | 3.3 |
Marseille
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Moumbagna n 8 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | — |
| T. Mmadi n 3 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | — |
| T. Nnadi n 8 | 54.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 | — |
| K. Abdallah n 8 | 39.1 | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| B. Meité n 8 | 80.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| K. Abdallah n 8 | 39.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| T. Mmadi n 3 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Igor Paixão n 8 | 72.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| A. Gouiri n 8 | 70.3 | 1.6 | 1 |
| A. Harit n 8 | 75.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Gouiri n 8 | 70.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Nouhoum Kamissoko n 5 | 36.8 | 0.5 | 0 |
| H. Abdelli n 8 | 80.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| A. Harit n 8 | 75.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| T. Weah n 8 | 88.4 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| T. Mmadi n 3 | 9.3 | 3.2 |
| Nouhoum Kamissoko n 5 | 36.8 | 2.9 |
| T. Weah n 8 | 88.4 | 2.5 |
| G. Kondogbia n 8 | 52.1 | 2.4 |
| Q. Timber n 8 | 53.9 | 2.1 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| J. de Lange n 8 | 90 | 3.9 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Sturm Graz v Marseille — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Sturm Graz v Marseille?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Sturm Graz v Marseille is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.72 at Betano).
- What is the recent form of Sturm Graz and Marseille?
- Recent form — Sturm Graz 2W 1D 2L; Marseille 2W 0D 3L.
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