AlbaniaFinland

Albania v Finland prediction

UEFA Nations League · · Arena Kombëtare

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Albania · Finland

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Draw the free pick for Albania v Finland, UEFA Nations League on Thu, 12 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick
Home or Draw
Best price: 1.25 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 76.7% of 1766 landed (95% range 74.7–78.6%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Albania host Finland in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday 12 November (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Albania or the draw, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Albania have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Six of Albania’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in five of Albania’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). At home, Albania have four wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.75 points per game, scoring 1.13 and conceding 0.63.

Eight of Finland’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in six of Finland’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). Away from home, Finland have two wins, one draw and four defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.57 and conceding 1.57.

Albania (first) and Finland (third) are two points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Albania the stronger side, 74 rating points above Finland (Albania 1446, Finland 1372, after at least 24 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 3 October 2026, finished Finland 2–1 Albania.

Team news

Predicted Albania XI (3-4-3): A. Sherri, A. Ismajli, B. Djimsiti, M. Mitaj, K. Asllani, E. Hysaj, J. Shehu, S. Pilios, R. Manaj, E. Muçi, A. Hoxha — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, K. Asllani (7.3 per match over five appearances, three goals and one assist) and Rey Manaj (5.3 per match over four appearances, two goals and one assist) have been Albania’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Albania (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), K. Asllani averages 2.6 key passes per 90 over 633 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last eight appearances. Rey Manaj averages 3.3 shots per 90 over 275 minutes.

Predicted Finland XI (4-3-3): L. Hrádecký, J. Lahteenmaki, S. Miettinen, A. Stahl, T. Miettinen, A. Marhiev, L. Walta, K. Kairinen, J. Pohjanpalo, A. Svanback, T. Keskinen — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Leo Walta (5.5 per match over six appearances, four goals and one assist) and Juho Lahteenmaki (4.2 per match over four appearances, one assist) have been Finland’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Finland (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Leo Walta averages 2.6 key passes per 90 over 957 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Juho Lahteenmaki averages 1.4 key passes per 90 over 2145 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

  • Kick-off: · UEFA Nations League · Arena Kombëtare
  • Referee: Joao Pinheiro
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 1): Albania 0 · draws 0 · Finland 1 · 3 goals/game
  • Recent form: Albania 3W 0D 2L · Finland 2W 1D 2L

Albania v Finland (UEFA Nations League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.38 / 1.5
Goals
against 0.88 / 1.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.25
over 8 matches
4.88 / 5.13
Corners
against 3.88 / 3.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.13 / 4.75
Shots on target
against 3.25 / 3.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.25 / 1.25
Cards
against 2.38 / 1.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 6 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameAlbania for / againstLineFinland for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 0.88 against n 8
2.25our book
1.5 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
4.88 for · 3.88 against n 8
9.5standard
5.13 for · 3.88 against n 8
Shots
13.13 for · 10 against n 8
19.5standard
12 for · 9.25 against n 8
Shots on target
4.13 for · 3.25 against n 8
8.5standard
4.75 for · 3.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.88 for · 16.25 against n 8
21.5standard
14 for · 12 against n 8
Cards shown
2.25 for · 2.38 against n 8
3.5standard
1.25 for · 1.88 against n 8

Albania

Albania Goalkeeper

Albania — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
A. Sherri278155 min21.2 /9021.2 /9000 /90
Etrit Berisha256112 min32.4 /9000 /9000 /90
M. Dajsinani19090 min22 /9011 /9000 /90
Albania — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Albania before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Etrit Berisha n 576.4
1.92/2

Albania Defensive

Albania — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
A. Ismajli490360 min20.5 /90102.5 /9010.3 /90143.5 /9030.8 /9010.3 /90
B. Djimsiti479315 min30.9 /9030.9 /9010.3 /90195.4 /9010.3 /9010.3 /90
M. Mitaj384251 min20.7 /9082.9 /9020.7 /9041.4 /9031.1 /9000 /90
Samuele sina19090 min22 /9011 /9000 /9033 /9033 /9000 /90
Marash Kumbulla14545 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9012 /9000 /90
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Albania — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Albania before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
A. Ismajli n 887.8
0.95/2
0.86/0
—
K. Asllani n 887.9
0.53/1
1.97/4
—
B. Djimsiti n 884.4
0.53/1
0.74/1
—
Rey Manaj n 875.4
2.28/6
2.78/5
—
E. Muçi n 462.5
0.41/0
1.43/1
—
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Albania — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Albania before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Ismajli n 887.8
0.52/2
K. Asllani n 887.9
1.47/2
B. Djimsiti n 884.4
0.95/2
Rey Manaj n 875.4
1.36/3
E. Muçi n 462.5
1.42/1
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Albania Attacking

Albania — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Rey Manaj469275 min20.7 /9010.3 /90103.3 /9072.3 /9020.7 /9051.6 /90
E. Muçi463250 min10.4 /9000 /9062.2 /9020.7 /9082.9 /9010.4 /90
A. Hoxha448192 min00 /9000 /9041.9 /9010.5 /9041.9 /9062.8 /90
M. Uzuni445178 min10.5 /9000 /9042 /9010.5 /9042 /9042 /90
Mirlind Daku32780 min00 /9000 /9066.8 /9011.1 /9022.3 /9000 /90
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Albania — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Albania before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Ismajli n 887.8
0.11/0
00/0
K. Asllani n 887.9
1.75/4
0.94/2
B. Djimsiti n 884.4
0.85/1
0.11/0
Rey Manaj n 875.4
2.47/5
1.24/2
E. Muçi n 462.5
2.23/2
0.72/0
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Albania — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Albania before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Ismajli n 887.8
00/0
00/0
K. Asllani n 887.9
0.53/1
0.11/0
B. Djimsiti n 884.4
00/0
00/0
Rey Manaj n 875.4
0.43/0
0.11/0
E. Muçi n 462.5
0.41/0
00/0
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Finland

Finland Goalkeeper

Finland — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
L. Hrádecký390270 min82.7 /9010.3 /9000 /90
Finland — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Finland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
L. Hrádecký n 890
3.67/7

Finland Defensive

Finland — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
J. Lahteenmaki484337 min71.9 /9030.8 /9010.3 /90205.3 /9010.3 /9000 /90
S. Miettinen390270 min51.7 /9051.7 /9000 /90134.3 /9062 /9010.3 /90
Adam Stahl375225 min10.4 /9041.6 /9020.8 /90114.4 /9020.8 /9010.4 /90
T. Miettinen366197 min31.4 /9000 /9000 /9073.2 /9041.8 /9000 /90
V. Koski268135 min32 /9032 /9000 /90117.3 /9021.3 /9000 /90
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Finland — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Finland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. Lahteenmaki n 785.7
0.21/0
1.76/4
—
L. Walta n 780.3
0.52/1
15/1
—
A. Marhiev n 769.7
2.46/4
3.15/4
—
J. Pohjanpalo n 866.6
14/2
0.53/0
—
S. Miettinen n 390
23/3
0.71/1
—
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Finland — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Finland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Lahteenmaki n 785.7
1.54/3
L. Walta n 780.3
0.52/1
A. Marhiev n 769.7
2.27/4
J. Pohjanpalo n 866.6
0.31/1
S. Miettinen n 390
1.72/2
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Finland Attacking

Finland — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
J. Pohjanpalo468271 min31 /9000 /9093 /9062 /9051.7 /9000 /90
Adrian Svanback379238 min10.4 /9020.8 /9041.5 /9010.4 /9051.9 /9000 /90
T. Keskinen374223 min00 /9000 /9041.6 /9000 /9000 /9052 /90
B. Källman338113 min10.8 /9000 /9010.8 /9010.8 /9010.8 /9000 /90
O. Valakari23978 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9011.2 /9000 /90
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Finland — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Finland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Lahteenmaki n 785.7
00/0
00/0
L. Walta n 780.3
2.47/5
1.65/3
A. Marhiev n 769.7
0.93/2
0.62/1
J. Pohjanpalo n 866.6
2.57/3
1.43/2
S. Miettinen n 390
0.71/1
00/0
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Finland — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Finland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Lahteenmaki n 785.7
00/0
0.21/0
L. Walta n 780.3
0.62/2
0.21/0
A. Marhiev n 769.7
0.21/0
00/0
J. Pohjanpalo n 866.6
0.51/1
00/0
L. Hrádecký n 890
00/0
00/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Albania v Finland — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
AlbaniaLWWLW
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1.8 scored / 1 conceded per game
FinlandLWDWL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.8 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 1
Albania 0 · 0 draws · Finland 1 · 3 goals/game
  • 2026-10-03 Finland 2–1 Albania
League standing · 2026/27
Albania#1 pos9 pts4 pl+5 GD
Finland#3 pos7 pts4 pl+7 GD
Goals per game
Albania scored2
Finland scored2.25
Albania conceded0.75
Finland conceded0.5

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Expected goals (xG)
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Win probability & value
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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Albania v Finland?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Albania v Finland is Home or Draw (best price 1.25 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Albania and Finland?
In their last 1 meetings, Albania won 0, Finland won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Albania and Finland?
Recent form — Albania 3W 0D 2L; Finland 2W 1D 2L.

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