Free model picks
UEFA Nations League Predictions: Free Model Picks, Graded
34 UEFA Nations League fixtures kick off in the next 10 days, starting with Türkiye v Belgium (Thu, 12 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT). 8 of them carry a free TACTIX model pick, shown with the best bookmaker price. Switzerland lead the table on 12 points after 4 games, level with Spain. H. Kane leads the scorers with 6 goals.
A free TACTIX model pick for every upcoming UEFA Nations League fixture, with the best bookmaker price. Our model is calibrated to ±0.2% across 6M+ graded predictions (all markets, player markets included) — the full win probability, xG and value across 240+ markets are part of Pro.
Updated · picks refresh daily · live track record
This Round at a Glance
- Strongest favourite among the free picks: Czechia v Spain (Thu, 12 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT) — the free pick is Spain to win.
- Closest call: Italy v France (Thu, 12 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT) — the smallest gap of the round between the two sides’ chances of winning, by the model.
- Likeliest draw: Italy v France (Thu, 12 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT) — the highest draw chance of the round, by the model.
- Most goals among the free picks: England v Croatia (Thu, 12 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT) — the free pick is over 2.5 goals.
Each line ranks the model’s own probabilities for the round’s four matches (from Thu, 12 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT); the favourite and goals lines rank the free picks only. The probabilities themselves, and every market, are on each match page with Pro.
France have scored in their last 5 (all competitions we cover)
Spain are unbeaten in their last 20 (all competitions we cover)
England have scored in their last 10 (all competitions we cover)
San Marino are winless in their last 12 (all competitions we cover)
Montenegro are unbeaten in their last 6 (all competitions we cover)
Switzerland have scored in their last 5 (all competitions we cover)
FYR Macedonia are winless in their last 12 (all competitions we cover)
Serbia have lost their last 6 (all competitions we cover)
Netherlands are unbeaten in their last 9 (all competitions we cover)
Faroe Islands have scored in their last 9 (all competitions we cover)
Kazakhstan are winless in their last 9 (all competitions we cover)
Liechtenstein are winless in their last 10 (all competitions we cover)
Estonia are unbeaten in their last 5 (all competitions we cover)
Gibraltar are unbeaten in their last 6 (all competitions we cover)
Norway have scored in their last 12 (all competitions we cover)
Denmark have scored in their last 5 (all competitions we cover)
What the Data Says About UEFA Nations League
TACTIX lists 34 upcoming UEFA Nations League fixtures in the next ten days, eight of them with a free model pick — the single strongest lean in the 62–80% probability band — shown with the best bookmaker price at build time. Across the whole estate the model runs at ±0.2% mean calibration error across a 6M+-prediction track record (all markets, player markets included); the record is published live, losing predictions included, on the scoreboard and as a hash-chained pre-commitment ledger, so any pick can be checked against what was written before kick-off. In UEFA Nations League specifically, the last 30 days of settled free picks read 7 from 8, every result kept. Expected goals, venue-adjusted team ratings and market prices feed one calibrated probability per market; a prediction is a probability, never a certainty. This page is regenerated daily (figures as of 5 Nov 2026) and every number in this paragraph is computed at build time, never typed in. Scoreboard · Ledger · How accurate is TACTIX?
This matchweek in numbers
34 fixtures in the UEFA Nations League fall inside the next 10 days, starting with Türkiye v Belgium (Thu, 12 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT). TACTIX’s free pick is posted on 8 of the 34 fixtures in the next 10 days; the remaining markets on every match are Pro.
The table so far
Switzerland lead the UEFA Nations League on 12 points from four games, level with Spain (this season so far). The UEFA Nations League is averaging 2.46 goals a game across 104 matches, this season so far. The scoring race: H. Kane on six goals, L. Walta on 4.
Spotted something wrong? Report an error.
UEFA Nations League at a Glance
Long-run averages the model fits for UEFA Nations League — the baseline every UEFA Nations League match starts from before team form.
UEFA Nations League Table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 | Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 |
| 3 | Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 12 |
| 4 | Slovakia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 10 |
| 5 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Montenegro | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 9 |
| 9 | Albania | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 10 | Iceland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 8 |
| 11 | Austria | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 8 |
| 12 | Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 8 |
| 13 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
| 14 | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 15 | Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 8 |
| 16 | Finland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 7 |
| 17 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 18 | Belarus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 19 | Cyprus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 20 | Slovenia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 21 | Malta | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 22 | Hungary | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 23 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 24 | Estonia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 25 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 26 | Rep. Of Ireland | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 5 |
| 27 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 28 | Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 29 | Kosovo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 30 | Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 4 |
| 31 | Lithuania | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 32 | Faroe Islands | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 33 | Armenia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 34 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 35 | Scotland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 36 | Ukraine | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 37 | Moldova | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
| 38 | Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 39 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 40 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 41 | Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3 |
| 42 | Gibraltar | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 43 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2 |
| 44 | Georgia | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 45 | Israel | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2 |
| 46 | Andorra | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| 47 | Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 48 | Latvia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| 49 | Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 |
| 50 | Czechia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 0 |
| 51 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| 52 | Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
| 53 | FYR Macedonia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 |
| 54 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 16 | -15 | 0 |
Current UEFA Nations League standings — tap a club for its form, fixtures and model outlook.
Model record · last 30 Days
How the free (Bronze) UEFA Nations League pick shown on each match has settled over the last 30 days — every result, win or lose. 1-unit flat stakes at the price shown.
Season Leaders
Top Scorers
- H. Kane6 G
- L. Walta4 G
- Lamine Yamal4 G
- M. Olise4 G
- T. Parrott4 G
Top Assists
- J. Bellingham4 A
- Martin Ødegaard4 A
- D. Ndoye3 A
- Dani Olmo3 A
- K. Pechenin3 A
How These Picks Work
Each card shows the model’s free pick and the best price we can find across UK bookmakers. We surface one pick per match free; the complete forecast — calibrated win probability, expected goals and value vs the market — opens with TACTIX Pro. We lead with calibration, not an inflated accuracy headline, and the live record (losers included) is on the scoreboard. To see the probability a price implies, and its fair odds with the bookmaker’s margin removed, use the odds calculator.
Responsible Gambling
Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. 18+. Please gamble responsibly — see our responsible-gambling policy (BeGambleAware, GamCare, GAMSTOP).
Other Competitions
Get today’s picks by email
The day’s free model picks — each with its confidence tier and the tier’s settled record — in one email at 07:30 UK. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.
See the Full Forecast
Win probability, xG and value across 240+ markets for every fixture.