Belgium v Italy prediction

UEFA Nations League · Sun, 15 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 12:20 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Belgium · Italy · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Draw or Away the free pick for Belgium v Italy, UEFA Nations League on Sun, 15 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick

Draw or Away

Odds: 1.62 at Betfair

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 68.6% of 1471 landed (95% range 66.2–70.9%); it had given them 75.4% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Belgium host Italy in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday 15 November (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is the draw or Italy, a Bronze-tier call.

Form and the table

Nine of Belgium’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in eight of Belgium’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Belgium have four wins, three draws and one defeat in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.88 points per game, scoring 2.50 and conceding 0.50.

Nine of Italy’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in eight of Italy’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Italy have four wins, three draws and one defeat in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.88 points per game, scoring 2.38 and conceding 1.75.

Italy are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. Belgium (third) and Italy (second) are one point apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Italy the stronger side, 74 rating points above Belgium (Italy 1762, Belgium 1688, after at least 30 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 25 September 2026, finished Italy 0–2 Belgium.

Team news

Predicted Belgium XI (4-3-3): S. Lammens, B. Mechele, T. Castagne, N. Ngoy, M. De Cuyper, Y. Tielemans, H. Vanaken, N. Raskin, C. De Ketelaere, D. Lukebakio, R. Lukaku — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Youri Tielemans (4.9 per match over 12 appearances, three goals and three assists) and Charles De Ketelaere (4.7 per match over 13 appearances, five goals and three assists) have been Belgium’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Belgium (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Youri Tielemans averages 1.7 key passes per 90 over 1980 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances. Charles De Ketelaere averages 1.3 shots per 90 over 1896 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Italy XI (4-4-2): G. Donnarumma, A. Bastoni, R. Calafiori, G. Mancini, M. Kayode, S. Tonali, N. Barella, D. Frattesi, A. Romano, F. Esposito, M. Kean — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Francesco Esposito (4.8 per match over six appearances, four goals and one assist) and Michael Kayode (4.3 per match over three appearances, one goal) have been Italy’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Italy (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Francesco Esposito averages 2.5 shots per 90 over 1091 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances. Michael Kayode averages 1.4 tackles per 90 over 1130 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sun, 15 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · UEFA Nations League
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 5): Belgium 1 · draws 1 · Italy 3 · 2.6 goals/game
Recent form: Belgium 2W 0D 3L · Italy 2W 2D 1L

Belgium v Italy (UEFA Nations League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.25 / 1.75

Goals

against 1.38 / 1.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4 / 6.29

Corners

against 5.29 / 5 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

5.86 / 6.14

Shots on target

against 5.86 / 4.43 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

2.29 / 1.86

Cards

against 1.86 / 2.57 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 5 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 5 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Belgium for / against	Line	Italy for / against
Goals scored	2.25 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	2.5our book	1.75 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4 for · 5.29 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	6.29 for · 5 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	15.43 for · 16.43 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	18 for · 12.86 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	5.86 for · 5.86 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	6.14 for · 4.43 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	11 for · 10.14 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	12.57 for · 10 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	2.29 for · 1.86 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	1.86 for · 2.57 against n 7 Last 5

Belgium

Belgium Goalkeeper

Belgium — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded
Thibaut Courtois	5	86431 min	112.3 /90	40.8 /90
S. Lammens	4	72289 min	216.5 /90	10.3 /90
Maarten Vandevoordt	1	9090 min	55 /90	44 /90

Belgium — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Belgium before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Thibaut Courtois n 8	87.6	1.8 4/2
S. Lammens n 5	75.8	5.2 4/3

Belgium Defensive

Belgium — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
B. Mechele	9	90810 min	161.8 /90	60.7 /90	80.9 /90	424.7 /90	91 /90	00 /90
T. Castagne	9	80718 min	131.6 /90	91.1 /90	20.3 /90	222.8 /90	70.9 /90	10.1 /90
N. Ngoy	8	87696 min	111.4 /90	151.9 /90	60.8 /90	212.7 /90	91.2 /90	10.1 /90
M. De Cuyper	8	71567 min	101.6 /90	50.8 /90	20.3 /90	182.9 /90	71.1 /90	10.2 /90
J. Seys	3	62187 min	73.4 /90	21 /90	21 /90	83.9 /90	31.4 /90	10.5 /90
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Belgium — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Belgium before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
B. Mechele n 8	90	0.9 6/1	0.6 3/1	—
T. Castagne n 8	82.8	0.8 4/2	0.3 2/0	—
N. Ngoy n 8	87	1.2 6/3	0.5 3/1	—
C. De Ketelaere n 8	72.3	0.6 2/2	1.2 6/1	—
M. De Cuyper n 8	70.9	1.1 5/2	0.3 2/0	—
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Belgium — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Belgium before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
B. Mechele n 8	90	1.8 7/4
T. Castagne n 8	82.8	1.2 5/3
N. Ngoy n 8	87	1.4 6/4
C. De Ketelaere n 8	72.3	1.4 6/3
M. De Cuyper n 8	70.9	1.6 6/2
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Belgium Attacking

Belgium — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
C. De Ketelaere	8	72578 min	30.5 /90	30.5 /90	91.4 /90	81.2 /90	132 /90	71.1 /90
D. Lukebakio	6	48289 min	20.6 /90	10.3 /90	123.7 /90	72.2 /90	30.9 /90	154.7 /90
R. Lukaku	6	42249 min	20.7 /90	00 /90	51.8 /90	31.1 /90	10.4 /90	20.7 /90
Mika Godts	4	67268 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	51.7 /90	20.7 /90	93 /90	93 /90
A. Saelemaekers	2	3876 min	11.2 /90	00 /90	33.6 /90	11.2 /90	00 /90	22.4 /90
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Belgium — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Belgium before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
B. Mechele n 8	90	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
T. Castagne n 8	82.8	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
N. Ngoy n 8	87	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
C. De Ketelaere n 8	72.3	1.4 6/2	1.2 5/2
M. De Cuyper n 8	70.9	1.6 5/3	1 3/1
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Belgium — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Belgium before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
B. Mechele n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
T. Castagne n 8	82.8	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
N. Ngoy n 8	87	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. De Ketelaere n 8	72.3	0.5 2/1	0.5 3/0
M. De Cuyper n 8	70.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Italy

Italy Goalkeeper

Italy — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
G. Donnarumma	4	90360 min	194.8 /90	51.3 /90	00 /90

Italy — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
G. Donnarumma n 8	90.4	2.9 5/3

Italy Defensive

Italy — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
A. Bastoni	3	90270 min	51.7 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90	72.3 /90	62 /90	10.3 /90
Michael Kayode	3	72215 min	31.3 /90	20.8 /90	20.8 /90	104.2 /90	20.8 /90	00 /90
Riccardo Calafiori	3	71214 min	62.5 /90	10.4 /90	20.8 /90	72.9 /90	00 /90	00 /90
G. Scalvini	3	68205 min	41.8 /90	20.9 /90	41.8 /90	73.1 /90	20.9 /90	00 /90
G. Mancini	2	90180 min	10.5 /90	00 /90	21 /90	42 /90	21 /90	10.5 /90
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Italy — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
G. Donnarumma n 8	90.4	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
S. Tonali n 8	76.8	1.3 5/2	1 4/2	—
F. Esposito n 8	51.8	2.2 3/3	2.4 6/3	—
A. Bastoni n 8	86.1	1.8 7/4	0.9 4/3	—
Michael Kayode n 3	71.7	0.8 2/0	0.8 1/1	—
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Italy — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
S. Tonali n 8	76.8	1 5/2
F. Esposito n 8	51.8	0.7 3/0
A. Bastoni n 8	86.1	1.4 6/2
Michael Kayode n 3	71.7	1.3 2/1
Riccardo Calafiori n 8	83.4	1.8 8/3
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Italy Attacking

Italy — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
F. Esposito	4	59236 min	20.8 /90	10.4 /90	62.3 /90	51.9 /90	51.9 /90	00 /90
M. Kean	2	90180 min	00 /90	00 /90	73.5 /90	31.5 /90	00 /90	21 /90
S. Esposito	2	72143 min	00 /90	00 /90	21.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90	21.3 /90
Nicolo Cambiaghi	2	63125 min	00 /90	00 /90	21.4 /90	21.4 /90	53.6 /90	10.7 /90
D. Maldini	2	58115 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	21.6 /90	10.8 /90
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Italy — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
G. Donnarumma n 8	90.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Tonali n 8	76.8	0.7 4/1	0.4 3/0
F. Esposito n 8	51.8	3.3 7/4	2.4 7/4
A. Bastoni n 8	86.1	0.7 4/1	0.4 3/0
Michael Kayode n 3	71.7	1.3 1/1	1.3 1/1
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Italy — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Italy before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
G. Donnarumma n 8	90.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Tonali n 8	76.8	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
F. Esposito n 8	51.8	0.9 4/0	0.2 1/0
A. Bastoni n 8	86.1	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
Michael Kayode n 3	71.7	0.4 1/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Belgium v Italy — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

BelgiumLWLWL

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

ItalyDLWDW

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 5

Belgium 1 · 1 draw · Italy 3 · 2.6 goals/game

2026-09-25 Italy 0–2 Belgium
2024-11-14 Belgium 0–1 Italy
2024-10-10 Italy 2–2 Belgium
2021-10-10 Italy 2–1 Belgium
2021-07-02 Belgium 1–2 Italy

League standing · 2026/27

Belgium#3 pos6 pts4 pl+1 GD

Italy#2 pos7 pts4 pl+3 GD

Goals per game

Belgium scored1.5

Italy scored2

Belgium conceded1.25

Italy conceded1.25

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Belgium v Italy?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Belgium v Italy is Draw or Away (odds 1.62 at Betfair).
What is the head-to-head record between Belgium and Italy?: In their last 5 meetings, Belgium won 1, Italy won 3 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.6 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Belgium and Italy?: Recent form — Belgium 2W 0D 3L; Italy 2W 2D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 12:20 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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