England v Croatia prediction

UEFA Nations League · Thu, 12 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · Wembley Stadium

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 00:58 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: England · Croatia · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for England v Croatia, UEFA Nations League on Thu, 12 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.50 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.7% of 495 landed (95% range 64.5–72.6%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

England host Croatia in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday 12 November (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

12 of Croatia’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (80%).

England have scored in 10 consecutive matches in all competitions. England are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Croatia.

Form and the table

10 of England’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in seven of England’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, England have four wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.86 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.14.

Both teams scored in nine of Croatia’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Croatia have four wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.63 points per game, scoring 1.38 and conceding 1.63.

England have won their last three matches in all competitions. Croatia have lost their last three matches in all competitions. England have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches in all competitions. England (second) and Croatia (third) are six points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have England the stronger side, 360 rating points above Croatia (England 1972, Croatia 1612, after at least 28 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 3 October 2026, finished Croatia 0–7 England.

Team news

Predicted England XI (4-2-3-1): J. Pickford, M. Guéhi, J. Quansah, E. Konsa, L. Hall, E. Anderson, J. Bellingham, M. Rogers, B. Saka, E. Eze, H. Kane — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Jude Bellingham (6.6 per match over 14 appearances, eight goals and five assists) and Harry Kane (5.5 per match over 13 appearances, 13 goals and two assists) have been England’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for England (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Jude Bellingham averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 2328 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Harry Kane averages 3.6 shots per 90 over 2311 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Croatia XI (4-2-3-1): D. Livakovic, J. Gvardiol, J. Stanišić, J. Šutalo, L. Vušković, M. Kovačić, L. Modrić, P. Sučić, N. Vlašić, M. Baturina, I. Matanović — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Ivan Perišić (4.0 per match over 10 appearances, two goals and four assists) and Josip Stanišić (3.1 per match over nine appearances, two assists) have been Croatia’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Croatia (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Ivan Perišić averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 1846 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Josip Stanišić averages 1.3 tackles per 90 over 1712 minutes, with a tackle in six of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Thu, 12 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · UEFA Nations League · Wembley Stadium
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): England 4 · draws 1 · Croatia 1 · 3.33 goals/game
Recent form: England 4W 0D 1L · Croatia 1W 0D 4L

England v Croatia (UEFA Nations League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

3.13 / 1.25

Goals

against 1.5 / 2.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.25

over 8 matches

4.43 / 3

Corners

against 4.14 / 5.63 · 0 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

6.14 / 3.75

Shots on target

against 3.86 / 4.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

1.57 / 1.5

Cards

against 1.29 / 1 · 0 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 6 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	England for / against	Line	Croatia for / against
Goals scored	3.13 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5	3.25our book	1.25 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.43 for · 4.14 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	3 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	14.43 for · 13.14 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	10 for · 12.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	6.14 for · 3.86 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	3.75 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	9.29 for · 13.57 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	10.75 for · 9.88 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.57 for · 1.29 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	1.5 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5

England

England Goalkeeper

England — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded
J. Pickford	8	92733 min	131.6 /90	70.9 /90
J. Trafford	2	90180 min	42 /90	31.5 /90
D. Henderson	1	9090 min	55 /90	44 /90

England — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for England before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Pickford n 8	91.6	1.6 4/3

England Defensive

England — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
M. Guéhi	10	88884 min	70.7 /90	101 /90	60.6 /90	394 /90	90.9 /90	10.1 /90
E. Konsa	9	83751 min	70.8 /90	81 /90	60.7 /90	313.7 /90	101.2 /90	00 /90
J. Quansah	6	78470 min	71.3 /90	00 /90	20.4 /90	224.2 /90	30.6 /90	10.2 /90
N. O'Reilly	6	76458 min	61.2 /90	61.2 /90	00 /90	234.5 /90	81.6 /90	20.4 /90
D. Spence	6	62371 min	153.6 /90	41 /90	20.5 /90	266.3 /90	30.7 /90	00 /90
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England — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for England before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
M. Guéhi n 8	88	0.9 5/2	0.8 6/0	—
H. Kane n 8	82.5	1 5/2	1 5/2	—
E. Anderson n 8	80.1	1.1 6/2	1.5 5/3	—
J. Bellingham n 8	78.3	1.2 5/2	2.9 7/6	—
E. Konsa n 8	82.6	1.2 6/2	1.9 6/5	—
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England — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for England before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
M. Guéhi n 8	88	0.9 4/3
H. Kane n 8	82.5	0.3 2/0
E. Anderson n 8	80.1	2.5 8/6
J. Bellingham n 8	78.3	1.4 5/2
E. Konsa n 8	82.6	1 4/2
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England Attacking

England — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
H. Kane	10	84840 min	121.3 /90	20.2 /90	262.8 /90	171.8 /90	70.8 /90	10.1 /90
Rio Ngumoha	2	1836 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	25 /90
I. Toney	1	7979 min	00 /90	00 /90	11.1 /90	11.1 /90	00 /90	00 /90
O. Watkins	1	4545 min	00 /90	00 /90	12 /90	00 /90	24 /90	24 /90
E. Anderson	10	81805 min	00 /90	20.2 /90	80.9 /90	10.1 /90	60.7 /90	70.8 /90
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England — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for England before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
M. Guéhi n 8	88	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
H. Kane n 8	82.5	2.5 7/6	1.8 7/5
E. Anderson n 8	80.1	0.8 5/1	0.1 1/0
J. Bellingham n 8	78.3	2.3 7/6	1.7 7/3
E. Konsa n 8	82.6	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
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England — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for England before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
M. Guéhi n 8	88	0 0/0	0 0/0
H. Kane n 8	82.5	1.4 7/3	0.3 2/0
E. Anderson n 8	80.1	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
J. Bellingham n 8	78.3	0.6 3/1	0.7 3/1
E. Konsa n 8	82.6	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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Croatia

Croatia Goalkeeper

Croatia — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
D. Livakovic	8	90720 min	182.3 /90	192.4 /90	00 /90

Croatia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Croatia before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
D. Livakovic n 8	90	2.3 4/3

Croatia Defensive

Croatia — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
J. Stanišić	7	88616 min	60.9 /90	91.3 /90	10.1 /90	192.8 /90	00 /90	00 /90
J. Gvardiol	7	73512 min	111.9 /90	61.1 /90	20.4 /90	183.2 /90	30.5 /90	00 /90
J. Šutalo	6	90540 min	71.2 /90	91.5 /90	30.5 /90	193.2 /90	20.3 /90	00 /90
L. Vušković	5	76381 min	51.2 /90	71.7 /90	10.2 /90	112.6 /90	61.4 /90	10.2 /90
M. Pongračić	4	79315 min	51.4 /90	00 /90	20.6 /90	72 /90	41.1 /90	10.3 /90
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Croatia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Croatia before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
D. Livakovic n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
I. Perišić n 8	86.4	1.2 6/2	0.1 1/0	—
M. Kovačić n 8	74.9	1.1 6/1	1.2 5/2	—
P. Sučić n 8	65.8	1.7 5/4	1.7 5/2	—
J. Stanišić n 8	82.6	0 0/0	0.8 4/1	—
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Croatia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Croatia before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
I. Perišić n 8	86.4	1.8 7/5
M. Kovačić n 8	74.9	1.4 7/2
P. Sučić n 8	65.8	1.5 6/2
J. Stanišić n 8	82.6	0.8 5/1
L. Modrić n 8	72.5	1.2 4/3
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Croatia Attacking

Croatia — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
I. Matanović	6	44266 min	00 /90	10.3 /90	103.4 /90	51.7 /90	41.4 /90	20.7 /90
A. Budimir	5	43213 min	10.4 /90	00 /90	52.1 /90	20.8 /90	00 /90	10.4 /90
P. Musa	3	52156 min	10.6 /90	00 /90	31.7 /90	10.6 /90	10.6 /90	00 /90
Dion Drena Beljo	2	4385 min	11.1 /90	00 /90	11.1 /90	11.1 /90	00 /90	11.1 /90
I. Perišić	8	86691 min	20.3 /90	30.4 /90	70.9 /90	50.7 /90	111.4 /90	10.1 /90
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Croatia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Croatia before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
D. Livakovic n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
I. Perišić n 8	86.4	0.9 5/1	0.7 4/1
M. Kovačić n 8	74.9	0.9 4/1	0.6 2/1
P. Sučić n 8	65.8	0.7 4/0	0.5 3/0
J. Stanišić n 8	82.6	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
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Croatia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Croatia before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
D. Livakovic n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
I. Perišić n 8	86.4	0.3 2/0	0.4 3/0
M. Kovačić n 8	74.9	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
P. Sučić n 8	65.8	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
J. Stanišić n 8	82.6	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind England v Croatia — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

EnglandWLWWW

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

CroatiaLWLLL

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 1 scored / 3.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

England 4 · 1 draw · Croatia 1 · 3.33 goals/game

2026-10-03 Croatia 0–7 England
2026-06-17 England 4–2 Croatia
2021-06-13 England 1–0 Croatia
2018-11-18 England 2–1 Croatia
2018-10-12 Croatia 0–0 England
2018-07-11 Croatia 2–1 England

League standing · 2026/27

England#2 pos9 pts4 pl+11 GD

Croatia#3 pos3 pts4 pl-10 GD

Goals per game

England scored3.5

Croatia scored1

England conceded0.75

Croatia conceded3.5

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win England v Croatia?: TACTIX’s free model pick for England v Croatia is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.50 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between England and Croatia?: In their last 6 meetings, England won 4, Croatia won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of England and Croatia?: Recent form — England 4W 0D 1L; Croatia 1W 0D 4L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 00:58 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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