Finland v San Marino prediction

UEFA Nations League · Sun, 15 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 00:58 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home win the free pick for Finland v San Marino, UEFA Nations League on Sun, 15 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT.

Free pick

Home win

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 80.1% of 292 landed (95% range 75.2–84.3%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Finland host San Marino in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday 15 November (kick-off 17:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Finland to win, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

San Marino have lost their last 12 matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Eight of Finland’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in six of Finland’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). At home, Finland have three wins, one draw and four defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 1.25 points per game, scoring 0.88 and conceding 1.38.

11 of San Marino’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in five of San Marino’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). Away from home, San Marino have one win, no draws and seven defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 0.38 points per game, scoring 0.63 and conceding 3.50.

Finland (third) and San Marino (fourth) are seven points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Finland the stronger side, 397 rating points above San Marino (Finland 1372, San Marino 976, after at least 22 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Finland are unbeaten in the last three meetings with San Marino, every meeting checked. The most recent meeting, on 26 September 2026, finished San Marino 0–7 Finland.

Team news

Predicted Finland XI (4-3-3): L. Hrádecký, J. Lahteenmaki, S. Miettinen, A. Stahl, T. Miettinen, A. Marhiev, L. Walta, K. Kairinen, J. Pohjanpalo, A. Svanback, T. Keskinen — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Leo Walta (5.5 per match over six appearances, four goals and one assist) and Juho Lahteenmaki (4.2 per match over four appearances, one assist) have been Finland’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Finland (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Leo Walta averages 2.6 key passes per 90 over 957 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Juho Lahteenmaki averages 1.4 key passes per 90 over 2145 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted San Marino XI (4-3-1-2): E. Colombo, S. Giocondi, M. Cevoli, F. Fabbri, G. Benvenuti, L. Capicchioni, S. Zannoni, C. Meloni, L. Lazzari, N. Giacopetti, N. Nanni — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, S. Giocondi (2.7 per match over four appearances) and L. Capicchioni (2.6 per match over four appearances, one assist) have been San Marino’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for San Marino (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), L. Capicchioni averages 0.6 key passes per 90 over 288 minutes.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sun, 15 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT · UEFA Nations League
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 3): Finland 3 · draws 0 · San Marino 0 · 5.33 goals/game
Recent form: Finland 2W 1D 2L · San Marino 0W 0D 5L

Finland v San Marino (UEFA Nations League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.5 / 0.25

Goals

against 1.38 / 5.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

5.13 / 2

Corners

against 3.88 / 5.86 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

4.75 / 1.43

Shots on target

against 3.25 / 9.29 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

1.25 / 3

Cards

against 1.88 / 1.43 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 6 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Finland for / against	Line	San Marino for / against
Goals scored	1.5 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.25 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.13 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	2 for · 5.86 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	12 for · 9.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	5.29 for · 20.86 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	4.75 for · 3.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	1.43 for · 9.29 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	14 for · 12 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	14.71 for · 12.29 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	1.25 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	3 for · 1.43 against n 7 Last 5

Finland

Finland Goalkeeper

Finland — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
L. Hrádecký	3	90270 min	82.7 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90

Finland — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Finland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
L. Hrádecký n 8	90	3.6 7/7

Finland Defensive

Finland — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
J. Lahteenmaki	4	84337 min	71.9 /90	30.8 /90	10.3 /90	205.3 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
S. Miettinen	3	90270 min	51.7 /90	51.7 /90	00 /90	134.3 /90	62 /90	10.3 /90
Adam Stahl	3	75225 min	10.4 /90	41.6 /90	20.8 /90	114.4 /90	20.8 /90	10.4 /90
T. Miettinen	3	66197 min	31.4 /90	00 /90	00 /90	73.2 /90	41.8 /90	00 /90
V. Koski	2	68135 min	32 /90	32 /90	00 /90	117.3 /90	21.3 /90	00 /90
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Finland — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Finland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Lahteenmaki n 7	85.7	0.2 1/0	1.7 6/4	—
L. Walta n 7	80.3	0.5 2/1	1 5/1	—
A. Marhiev n 7	69.7	2.4 6/4	3.1 5/4	—
J. Pohjanpalo n 8	66.6	1 4/2	0.5 3/0	—
S. Miettinen n 3	90	2 3/3	0.7 1/1	—
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Finland — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Finland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Lahteenmaki n 7	85.7	1.5 4/3
L. Walta n 7	80.3	0.5 2/1
A. Marhiev n 7	69.7	2.2 7/4
J. Pohjanpalo n 8	66.6	0.3 1/1
S. Miettinen n 3	90	1.7 2/2
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Finland Attacking

Finland — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
J. Pohjanpalo	4	68271 min	31 /90	00 /90	93 /90	62 /90	51.7 /90	00 /90
Adrian Svanback	3	79238 min	10.4 /90	20.8 /90	41.5 /90	10.4 /90	51.9 /90	00 /90
T. Keskinen	3	74223 min	00 /90	00 /90	41.6 /90	00 /90	00 /90	52 /90
B. Källman	3	38113 min	10.8 /90	00 /90	10.8 /90	10.8 /90	10.8 /90	00 /90
O. Valakari	2	3978 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	11.2 /90	00 /90
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Finland — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Finland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Lahteenmaki n 7	85.7	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Walta n 7	80.3	2.4 7/5	1.6 5/3
A. Marhiev n 7	69.7	0.9 3/2	0.6 2/1
J. Pohjanpalo n 8	66.6	2.5 7/3	1.4 3/2
S. Miettinen n 3	90	0.7 1/1	0 0/0
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Finland — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Finland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Lahteenmaki n 7	85.7	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
L. Walta n 7	80.3	0.6 2/2	0.2 1/0
A. Marhiev n 7	69.7	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
J. Pohjanpalo n 8	66.6	0.5 1/1	0 0/0
L. Hrádecký n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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San Marino

San Marino Goalkeeper

San Marino — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
E. Colombo	4	90360 min	153.8 /90	164 /90	00 /90

San Marino — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for San Marino before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
E. Colombo n 7	90	4.3 6/6

San Marino Defensive

San Marino — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Michele Cevoli	4	72288 min	51.6 /90	00 /90	51.6 /90	134.1 /90	30.9 /90	10.3 /90
S. Giocondi	4	67267 min	72.4 /90	62 /90	00 /90	186.1 /90	10.3 /90	10.3 /90
F. Fabbri	4	51205 min	20.9 /90	20.9 /90	00 /90	52.2 /90	31.3 /90	10.4 /90
M. Pasolini	3	69206 min	52.2 /90	00 /90	10.4 /90	93.9 /90	31.3 /90	10.4 /90
G. Benvenuti	3	65196 min	62.8 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90	104.6 /90	41.8 /90	00 /90
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San Marino — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for San Marino before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
E. Colombo n 7	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
L. Capicchioni n 6	73.2	2.1 5/2	1.6 4/3	—
Michele Cevoli n 6	75.8	0.8 3/1	0.6 2/1	—
S. Giocondi n 4	66.8	0.3 1/0	2.4 3/2	—
Samuele Zannoni n 7	73.3	1.6 4/2	0.5 1/1	—
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San Marino — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for San Marino before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Michele Cevoli n 6	75.8	1.6 6/2
L. Capicchioni n 6	73.2	1.6 4/2
S. Giocondi n 4	66.8	2.4 3/2
Samuele Zannoni n 7	73.3	1.9 5/3
F. Fabbri n 5	53.6	1.7 3/1
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San Marino Attacking

San Marino — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
S. Pancotti	4	40160 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	21.1 /90	00 /90
N. Nanni	3	90270 min	00 /90	00 /90	41.3 /90	20.7 /90	20.7 /90	00 /90
N. Giacopetti	3	80239 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	41.5 /90	62.3 /90
G. Capicchioni	1	7878 min	00 /90	00 /90	22.3 /90	00 /90	22.3 /90	00 /90
F. Salicioni	1	5858 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	11.6 /90	00 /90
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San Marino — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for San Marino before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
E. Colombo n 7	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Capicchioni n 6	73.2	1 2/2	0.4 2/0
Michele Cevoli n 6	75.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Giocondi n 4	66.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
Samuele Zannoni n 7	73.3	1.1 5/1	0.4 2/0
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San Marino — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for San Marino before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
E. Colombo n 7	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Capicchioni n 6	73.2	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
Michele Cevoli n 6	75.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Giocondi n 4	66.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
Samuele Zannoni n 7	73.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Finland v San Marino — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

FinlandLWDWL

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.8 scored / 0.6 conceded per game

San MarinoLLLLL

Last 5: 0W 0D 5L · 0.4 scored / 4.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 3

Finland 3 · 0 draws · San Marino 0 · 5.33 goals/game

2026-09-26 San Marino 0–7 Finland
2023-11-20 San Marino 1–2 Finland
2023-06-19 Finland 6–0 San Marino

League standing · 2026/27

Finland#3 pos7 pts4 pl+7 GD

San Marino#4 pos0 pts4 pl-15 GD

Goals per game

Finland scored2.25

San Marino scored0.25

Finland conceded0.5

San Marino conceded4

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Finland v San Marino?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Finland v San Marino is Home win.
What is the head-to-head record between Finland and San Marino?: In their last 3 meetings, Finland won 3, San Marino won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 5.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Finland and San Marino?: Recent form — Finland 2W 1D 2L; San Marino 0W 0D 5L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 00:58 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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