Iceland v Luxembourg prediction

UEFA Nations League · Mon, 16 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 00:58 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home win the free pick for Iceland v Luxembourg, UEFA Nations League on Mon, 16 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT.

Free pick

Home win

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 80.1% of 292 landed (95% range 75.2–84.3%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Iceland host Luxembourg in the UEFA Nations League on Monday 16 November (kick-off 17:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Iceland to win, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Iceland are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions. Luxembourg have lost their last three matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

10 of Iceland’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (67%). Both teams scored in eight of Iceland’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Iceland have two wins, two draws and three defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.14 points per game, scoring 2.43 and conceding 2.14.

Six of Luxembourg’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in four of Luxembourg’s last 15 results in all competitions (27%). Away from home, Luxembourg have two wins, one draw and four defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 1.00 points per game, scoring 0.71 and conceding 1.43.

Luxembourg have failed to score in their last three matches in all competitions. Iceland have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches in all competitions. Iceland (first) and Luxembourg (fourth) are five points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Iceland the stronger side, 316 rating points above Luxembourg (Iceland 1511, Luxembourg 1195, after at least 26 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 29 September 2026, finished Luxembourg 0–3 Iceland.

Team news

Predicted Iceland XI (4-4-2): H. Valdimarsson, V. Palsson, D. L. Gretarsson, S. Þórðarson, H. Magnússon, Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson, H. Haraldsson, G. Sigurðsson, M. Anderson, O. Óskarsson, A. Guðjohnsen — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Orri Óskarsson (5.0 per match over six appearances, five goals and two assists) and Hákon Valdimarsson (4.3 per match over five appearances) have been Iceland’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Iceland (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Orri Óskarsson averages 2.8 shots per 90 over 1298 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. Hákon Valdimarsson averages 2.7 saves per 90 over 630 minutes, with two or more saves in four of the last seven appearances.

Predicted Luxembourg XI (4-1-4-1): A. Moris, D. Carlson, F. Bohnert, E. Mahmutović, V. Selimović, J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz, V. Thill, O. Natami, H. Kadamani, L. Barreiro, J. Pereira — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, V. Thill (3.7 per match over five appearances, one goal) and A. Moris (3.1 per match over five appearances) have been Luxembourg’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Luxembourg (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), V. Thill averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 427 minutes, with a key pass in three of the last six appearances. A. Moris averages 3.0 saves per 90 over 1174 minutes, with two or more saves in six of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Mon, 16 Nov 2026 17:00 GMT · UEFA Nations League
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 3): Iceland 1 · draws 1 · Luxembourg 1 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: Iceland 2W 2D 1L · Luxembourg 2W 0D 3L

Iceland v Luxembourg (UEFA Nations League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 0.88

Goals

against 1.25 / 1.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

5.38 / 3.25

Corners

against 3.88 / 4.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.25 / 3.63

Shots on target

against 4.38 / 5.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.63 / 2.88

Cards

against 2.5 / 2.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 6 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Iceland for / against	Line	Luxembourg for / against
Goals scored	1.75 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.88 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.38 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3.25 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	11.75 for · 10.5 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	10.63 for · 12 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.25 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.63 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11 for · 12.75 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	13.63 for · 12 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.63 for · 2.5 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.88 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5

Iceland

Iceland Goalkeeper

Iceland — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
H. Valdimarsson	4	90360 min	112.8 /90	10.3 /90	10.3 /90

Iceland — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Iceland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
H. Valdimarsson n 7	90	3.7 6/6

Iceland Defensive

Iceland — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. L. Gretarsson	4	79315 min	72 /90	51.4 /90	20.6 /90	195.4 /90	41.1 /90	10.3 /90
V. Palsson	4	73293 min	82.5 /90	10.3 /90	10.3 /90	226.8 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
M. Ellertsson	3	88264 min	93.1 /90	31 /90	00 /90	196.5 /90	62 /90	20.7 /90
S. Þórðarson	3	82247 min	51.8 /90	41.5 /90	10.4 /90	103.6 /90	41.5 /90	10.4 /90
H. Magnússon	3	60180 min	31.5 /90	21 /90	10.5 /90	84 /90	42 /90	10.5 /90
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Iceland — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Iceland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
H. Valdimarsson n 7	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson n 8	86.9	0.8 4/2	0.6 4/1	—
O. Óskarsson n 7	70.1	1.8 6/3	0.4 2/0	—
H. Haraldsson n 8	87.1	0.8 4/2	1.5 7/3	—
D. L. Gretarsson n 8	83.4	1.1 6/2	0.7 4/1	—
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Iceland — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Iceland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson n 8	86.9	2.7 7/7
O. Óskarsson n 7	70.1	0 0/0
H. Haraldsson n 8	87.1	1.7 7/4
D. L. Gretarsson n 8	83.4	1.5 4/4
A. Guðjohnsen n 8	78.6	0.7 4/1
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Iceland Attacking

Iceland — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
O. Óskarsson	4	86344 min	30.8 /90	20.5 /90	123.1 /90	61.6 /90	41 /90	20.5 /90
A. Guðjohnsen	4	74295 min	20.6 /90	10.3 /90	51.5 /90	20.6 /90	72.1 /90	00 /90
B. Willumsson	2	2039 min	00 /90	00 /90	12.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90	24.6 /90
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson	4	86345 min	00 /90	00 /90	20.5 /90	10.3 /90	51.3 /90	10.3 /90
H. Haraldsson	4	84337 min	00 /90	20.5 /90	51.3 /90	20.5 /90	61.6 /90	30.8 /90
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Iceland — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Iceland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
H. Valdimarsson n 7	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson n 8	86.9	0.5 4/0	0.1 1/0
O. Óskarsson n 7	70.1	2.7 4/4	1.5 4/3
H. Haraldsson n 8	87.1	0.8 4/1	0.3 2/0
D. L. Gretarsson n 8	83.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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Iceland — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Iceland before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
H. Valdimarsson n 7	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson n 8	86.9	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
O. Óskarsson n 7	70.1	0.7 3/1	0.4 2/0
H. Haraldsson n 8	87.1	0 0/0	0.4 3/0
D. L. Gretarsson n 8	83.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Luxembourg

Luxembourg Goalkeeper

Luxembourg — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
A. Moris	4	79315 min	185.1 /90	41.1 /90	00 /90

Luxembourg — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luxembourg before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
A. Moris n 8	81.8	4.5 7/6
T. Pereira Cardoso n 4	57.5	2 2/1

Luxembourg Defensive

Luxembourg — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Carlson	4	90360 min	20.5 /90	112.8 /90	10.3 /90	246 /90	51.3 /90	20.5 /90
F. Bohnert	4	88353 min	30.8 /90	41 /90	10.3 /90	123.1 /90	51.3 /90	00 /90
E. Mahmutović	3	88263 min	41.4 /90	20.7 /90	10.3 /90	113.8 /90	51.7 /90	20.7 /90
V. Selimović	2	90180 min	10.5 /90	00 /90	10.5 /90	73.5 /90	21 /90	10.5 /90
L. Jans	2	53105 min	10.9 /90	32.6 /90	00 /90	65.1 /90	10.9 /90	00 /90
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Luxembourg — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luxembourg before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
D. Carlson n 8	90	0.6 2/1	0.9 3/2	—
F. Bohnert n 8	79.4	1.3 7/2	0.6 3/1	—
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz n 8	56.4	1 3/2	0.6 3/0	—
A. Moris n 8	81.8	0 0/0	0.4 3/0	—
V. Thill n 8	67.4	1.5 7/1	2.2 7/3	—
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Luxembourg — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luxembourg before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
D. Carlson n 8	90	1.1 5/3
F. Bohnert n 8	79.4	1.3 5/3
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz n 8	56.4	0.4 2/0
V. Thill n 8	67.4	2.5 5/4
Aiman Dardari n 8	72.8	0.3 2/0
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Luxembourg Attacking

Luxembourg — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Aiman Dardari	4	70280 min	00 /90	00 /90	41.3 /90	20.6 /90	31 /90	82.6 /90
Jayson Videira Pereira	3	54163 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.6 /90	00 /90	10.6 /90	00 /90
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz	4	81322 min	00 /90	00 /90	30.8 /90	20.6 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
V. Thill	4	74297 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	61.8 /90	41.2 /90	72.1 /90	20.6 /90
Hamza Kadamani	4	69277 min	00 /90	00 /90	20.6 /90	10.3 /90	20.6 /90	51.6 /90
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Luxembourg — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luxembourg before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
D. Carlson n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
F. Bohnert n 8	79.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz n 8	56.4	0.8 4/0	0.6 3/0
A. Moris n 8	81.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
V. Thill n 8	67.4	1.8 8/2	1.2 6/1
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Luxembourg — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luxembourg before kick-off, to 6 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
D. Carlson n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
F. Bohnert n 8	79.4	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz n 8	56.4	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
A. Moris n 8	81.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
V. Thill n 8	67.4	0.5 3/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Iceland v Luxembourg — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

IcelandLDWWD

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.4 scored / 0.6 conceded per game

LuxembourgWWLLL

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 3

Iceland 1 · 1 draw · Luxembourg 1 · 3 goals/game

2026-09-29 Luxembourg 0–3 Iceland
2023-10-13 Iceland 1–1 Luxembourg
2023-09-08 Luxembourg 3–1 Iceland

League standing · 2026/27

Iceland#1 pos8 pts4 pl+6 GD

Luxembourg#4 pos3 pts4 pl-5 GD

Goals per game

Iceland scored1.75

Luxembourg scored0.5

Iceland conceded0.25

Luxembourg conceded1.75

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Iceland v Luxembourg?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Iceland v Luxembourg is Home win.
What is the head-to-head record between Iceland and Luxembourg?: In their last 3 meetings, Iceland won 1, Luxembourg won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Iceland and Luxembourg?: Recent form — Iceland 2W 2D 1L; Luxembourg 2W 0D 3L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 00:58 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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