Poland v Sweden prediction

UEFA Nations League · Tue, 17 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 12:20 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Poland v Sweden, UEFA Nations League on Tue, 17 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick

Home or Away

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.8% of 5235 landed (95% range 76.7–78.9%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Poland host Sweden in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday 17 November (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Poland or Sweden (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Sweden are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Eight of Poland’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in nine of Poland’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Poland have five wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.13 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 0.63.

Eight of Sweden’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in 10 of Sweden’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). Away from home, Sweden have two wins, two draws and four defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 2.13.

Poland (third) and Sweden (first) are six points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Sweden the stronger side, 265 rating points above Poland (Sweden 1809, Poland 1544, after at least 26 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 28 September 2026, finished Sweden 3–1 Poland.

Team news

Predicted Poland XI (4-1-4-1): M. Bulka, J. Bednarek, J. Kiwior, P. Frankowski, M. Cash, P. Zieliński, N. Zalewski, W. Nowak, S. Szymański, K. Świderski, R. Lewandowski — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Sebastian Szymański (5.5 per match over four appearances, one goal and one assist) and Wiktor Nowak (4.8 per match over four appearances) have been Poland’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Poland (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Sebastian Szymański averages 3.1 key passes per 90 over 1039 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Wiktor Nowak averages 0.8 key passes per 90 over 577 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last eight appearances.

Predicted Sweden XI (4-4-2): V. Johansson, V. Lindelöf, G. Gudmundsson, D. Svensson, E. Smith, L. Bergvall, A. Bernhardsson, S. Nanasi, Y. Ayari, V. Gyökeres, A. Isak — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Viktor Gyökeres (4.9 per match over nine appearances, six goals and two assists) and Yasin Ayari (4.3 per match over eight appearances, three goals and one assist) have been Sweden’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Sweden (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Viktor Gyökeres averages 1.8 shots per 90 over 1382 minutes, with a shot in five of the last 10 appearances. Yasin Ayari averages 1.1 key passes per 90 over 1806 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Tue, 17 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · UEFA Nations League
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 4): Poland 1 · draws 0 · Sweden 3 · 4 goals/game
Recent form: Poland 1W 1D 3L · Sweden 3W 1D 1L

Poland v Sweden (UEFA Nations League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.88 / 1.75

Goals

against 1.38 / 1.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

6 / 3.63

Corners

against 2.63 / 3.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

5.5 / 4.88

Shots on target

against 3.63 / 4.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.5 / 1

Cards

against 2.63 / 1.75 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 5 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 5 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Poland for / against	Line	Sweden for / against
Goals scored	1.88 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.75 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3.63 for · 3.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	16.75 for · 9.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11.38 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5.5 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.88 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.75 for · 12 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	9.88 for · 12.5 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.5 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5

Poland

Poland Goalkeeper

Poland — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
M. Bulka	4	90360 min	82 /90	30.8 /90	00 /90

Poland — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Poland before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
M. Bulka n 4	90	2 2/2

Poland Defensive

Poland — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
J. Bednarek	4	90360 min	41 /90	51.3 /90	20.5 /90	246 /90	20.5 /90	20.5 /90
J. Kiwior	4	79315 min	51.4 /90	61.7 /90	41.1 /90	144 /90	20.6 /90	10.3 /90
M. Cash	4	73292 min	41.2 /90	30.9 /90	00 /90	61.8 /90	61.8 /90	10.3 /90
Przemysław Frankowski	4	63250 min	62.2 /90	103.6 /90	20.7 /90	114 /90	41.4 /90	00 /90
N. Wojtuszek	2	2754 min	11.7 /90	00 /90	00 /90	46.7 /90	23.3 /90	11.7 /90
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Poland — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Poland before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Bednarek n 8	90	0.5 4/0	0.4 3/0	—
M. Bulka n 4	90	0 0/0	0.3 1/0	—
S. Szymański n 8	84.9	1.1 5/2	2.9 8/6	—
P. Zieliński n 8	84.8	0.8 4/2	0.4 3/0	—
N. Zalewski n 8	75.9	1.2 5/2	2.1 7/4	—
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Poland — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Poland before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Bednarek n 8	90	0.6 3/1
S. Szymański n 8	84.9	3.3 7/6
P. Zieliński n 8	84.8	0.5 2/2
N. Zalewski n 8	75.9	0.7 5/0
J. Kiwior n 8	84.4	1.6 8/3
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Poland Attacking

Poland — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
M. Żukowski	2	90179 min	00 /90	00 /90	42 /90	10.5 /90	52.5 /90	00 /90
R. Lewandowski	2	89177 min	31.5 /90	00 /90	63.1 /90	42 /90	21 /90	10.5 /90
P. Zieliński	4	82327 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	123.3 /90	41.1 /90	82.2 /90	61.7 /90
S. Szymański	4	82327 min	10.3 /90	10.3 /90	71.9 /90	51.4 /90	102.8 /90	00 /90
N. Zalewski	4	81324 min	00 /90	20.6 /90	30.8 /90	00 /90	113.1 /90	92.5 /90
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Poland — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Poland before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Bednarek n 8	90	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
M. Bulka n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
P. Zieliński n 8	84.8	2.4 7/5	0.9 5/2
S. Szymański n 8	84.9	1.3 6/4	0.9 5/2
N. Zalewski n 8	75.9	1.3 6/3	0.3 2/0
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Poland — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Poland before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Bednarek n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
M. Bulka n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Szymański n 8	84.9	0.3 2/0	0.5 3/1
P. Zieliński n 8	84.8	0.4 3/0	0.3 2/0
N. Zalewski n 8	75.9	0.1 1/0	0.4 3/0
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Sweden

Sweden Goalkeeper

Sweden — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded
V. Johansson	4	90360 min	112.8 /90	30.8 /90
J. Widell Zetterström	2	90180 min	115.5 /90	42 /90
K. Nordfeldt	2	90180 min	31.5 /90	63 /90

Sweden — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sweden before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
V. Johansson n 8	90	2.1 4/3
J. Widell Zetterström n 3	90	4.3 3/1
K. Nordfeldt n 5	91.2	2.2 3/2

Sweden Defensive

Sweden — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
V. Lindelöf	8	90717 min	20.3 /90	70.9 /90	20.3 /90	162 /90	60.8 /90	00 /90
G. Gudmundsson	7	81566 min	71.1 /90	81.3 /90	50.8 /90	254 /90	91.4 /90	10.2 /90
D. Svensson	5	50250 min	62.2 /90	31.1 /90	00 /90	145 /90	20.7 /90	10.4 /90
G. Lagerbielke	4	90360 min	133.3 /90	41 /90	30.8 /90	276.8 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
I. Hien	3	72217 min	31.2 /90	10.4 /90	10.4 /90	145.8 /90	31.2 /90	10.4 /90
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Sweden — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sweden before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
V. Lindelöf n 8	89.6	0.8 5/1	0.3 1/1	—
Viktor Gyökeres n 8	88.1	0.8 4/2	1.9 7/5	—
G. Gudmundsson n 8	82	1.2 7/2	1.5 5/4	—
L. Bergvall n 8	58.6	2.7 7/4	1.9 7/3	—
Y. Ayari n 8	85.8	1.8 7/5	1.7 7/4	—
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Sweden — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sweden before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
V. Lindelöf n 8	89.6	0.3 2/0
Viktor Gyökeres n 8	88.1	0.5 4/0
G. Gudmundsson n 8	82	1.1 5/3
L. Bergvall n 8	58.6	1.3 6/1
Y. Ayari n 8	85.8	1.3 7/2
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Sweden Attacking

Sweden — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Viktor Gyökeres	8	88705 min	50.6 /90	20.3 /90	182.3 /90	111.4 /90	141.8 /90	20.3 /90
A. Isak	5	90448 min	20.4 /90	30.6 /90	81.6 /90	71.4 /90	81.6 /90	20.4 /90
A. Elanga	3	72215 min	20.8 /90	00 /90	31.3 /90	31.3 /90	10.4 /90	31.3 /90
L. Bergvall	7	64448 min	00 /90	10.2 /90	20.4 /90	10.2 /90	30.6 /90	40.8 /90
Y. Ayari	6	87520 min	30.5 /90	10.2 /90	91.6 /90	50.9 /90	91.6 /90	30.5 /90
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Sweden — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sweden before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
V. Lindelöf n 8	89.6	0.6 5/0	0 0/0
Viktor Gyökeres n 8	88.1	2.3 7/5	1.4 7/3
G. Gudmundsson n 8	82	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
L. Bergvall n 8	58.6	0.6 3/0	0.4 2/0
Y. Ayari n 8	85.8	1.3 5/3	0.8 4/2
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Sweden — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Sweden before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
V. Lindelöf n 8	89.6	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
Viktor Gyökeres n 8	88.1	0.6 5/0	0.3 2/0
G. Gudmundsson n 8	82	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Bergvall n 8	58.6	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
Y. Ayari n 8	85.8	0.4 2/1	0.3 2/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Poland v Sweden — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

PolandLDLWL

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1.8 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

SwedenLWWDW

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 4

Poland 1 · 0 draws · Sweden 3 · 4 goals/game

2026-09-28 Sweden 3–1 Poland
2026-03-31 Sweden 3–2 Poland
2022-03-29 Poland 2–0 Sweden
2021-06-23 Sweden 3–2 Poland

League standing · 2026/27

Poland#3 pos4 pts4 pl+3 GD

Sweden#1 pos10 pts4 pl+4 GD

Goals per game

Poland scored1.75

Sweden scored1.75

Poland conceded1

Sweden conceded0.75

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Poland v Sweden?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Poland v Sweden is Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Poland and Sweden?: In their last 4 meetings, Poland won 1, Sweden won 3 and there were 0 draws, averaging 4 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Poland and Sweden?: Recent form — Poland 1W 1D 3L; Sweden 3W 1D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 12:20 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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