Ukraine v Georgia prediction

UEFA Nations League · Tue, 17 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 23:26 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Under 2.5 goals the free pick for Ukraine v Georgia, UEFA Nations League on Tue, 17 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick

Under 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 56.1% of 139 landed (95% range 47.8–64.1%); it had given them 77.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Ukraine host Georgia in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday 17 November (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Under 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Georgia have failed to score in their last four matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Nine of Ukraine’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in eight of Ukraine’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). At home, Ukraine have three wins, no draws and four defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.29 points per game, scoring 1.29 and conceding 1.71.

Eight of Georgia’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in six of Georgia’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). Away from home, Georgia have one win, one draw and five defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 0.57 points per game, scoring 0.86 and conceding 1.57.

Ukraine are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. Georgia are winless in their last eight matches in all competitions. Ukraine (third) and Georgia (fourth) are two points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Georgia the stronger side, 115 rating points above Ukraine (Georgia 1490, Ukraine 1375, after at least 28 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Ukraine are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Georgia, every meeting checked. The most recent meeting, on 28 September 2026, finished Georgia 0–0 Ukraine.

Team news

Predicted Ukraine XI (4-2-3-1): A. Trubin, I. Zabarnyi, E. Sarapiy, T. Mykhavko, M. Matvienko, O. Ocheretko, V. Tsygankov, Y. Nazaryna, H. Sudakov, O. Zubkov, R. Yaremchuk — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Anatolii Trubin (3.4 per match over three appearances) and Heorhii Sudakov (3.3 per match over three appearances, one assist) have been Ukraine’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Ukraine (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Anatolii Trubin averages 4.2 saves per 90 over 602 minutes, with two or more saves in seven of the last seven appearances. Heorhii Sudakov averages 2.6 key passes per 90 over 947 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Georgia XI (4-2-3-1): G. Mamardashvili, L. Dvali, L. Lochoshvili, S. Goglichidze, O. Kakabadze, G. Kochorashvili, A. Mekvabishvili, G. Chakvetadze, O. Kiteishvili, G. Mamageishvili, K. Kvaratskhelia — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Giorgi Mamardashvili (4.6 per match over four appearances) and Lasha Dvali (3.8 per match over four appearances) have been Georgia’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Georgia (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Giorgi Mamardashvili averages 4.0 saves per 90 over 540 minutes, with two or more saves in six of the last six appearances. Lasha Dvali averages 1.9 tackles per 90 over 570 minutes, with a tackle in five of the last six appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Tue, 17 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · UEFA Nations League
Model coverage: 210 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 3): Ukraine 1 · draws 2 · Georgia 0 · 1 goals/game
Recent form: Ukraine 1W 1D 3L · Georgia 0W 2D 3L

Ukraine v Georgia (UEFA Nations League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.88 / 0.25

Goals

against 1.63 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.13 / 4.14

Corners

against 4.25 / 5 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

3.25 / 2.86

Shots on target

against 4.13 / 5.38 · 0 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

3 / 1.57

Cards

against 1.63 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

210

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 5 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 5 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Ukraine for / against	Line	Georgia for / against
Goals scored	0.88 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.25 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.13 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.14 for · 5 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	11.38 for · 13 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	9.14 for · 13.88 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	3.25 for · 4.13 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	2.86 for · 5.38 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	13 for · 9.25 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.86 for · 12.13 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	3 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.57 for · 1.75 against n 7 Last 5

Ukraine

Ukraine Goalkeeper

Ukraine — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
A. Trubin	2	90180 min	63 /90	00 /90	00 /90
Dmytro Riznyk	2	90180 min	42 /90	31.5 /90	00 /90

Ukraine — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Ukraine before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
A. Trubin n 8	90.8	2.4 4/3

Ukraine Defensive

Ukraine — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
E. Sarapiy	3	90270 min	20.7 /90	20.7 /90	20.7 /90	93 /90	41.3 /90	00 /90
I. Zabarnyi	3	90270 min	41.3 /90	10.3 /90	31 /90	165.3 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
Valerii Bondar	3	61184 min	52.4 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90	62.9 /90	42 /90	10.5 /90
Mykola Matvienko	2	90180 min	00 /90	31.5 /90	00 /90	31.5 /90	31.5 /90	21 /90
T. Mykhavko	2	90180 min	31.5 /90	21 /90	10.5 /90	126 /90	21 /90	00 /90
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Ukraine — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Ukraine before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Oleg Ocheretko n 8	60.8	1.9 8/2	0.9 4/1	—
Yehor Nazaryna n 5	69	2.1 5/2	1 3/1	—
E. Sarapiy n 3	90	1.3 2/2	0.3 1/0	—
V. Tsygankov n 8	72.1	1.1 6/1	1.2 5/3	—
I. Zabarnyi n 8	90.8	0.2 2/0	0.7 5/1	—
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Ukraine — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Ukraine before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Oleg Ocheretko n 8	60.8	4.1 7/6
Yehor Nazaryna n 5	69	1.3 3/2
V. Tsygankov n 8	72.1	0.9 3/2
I. Zabarnyi n 8	90.8	0.7 4/1
E. Sarapiy n 3	90	0.7 2/0
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Ukraine Attacking

Ukraine — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Danylo Sikan	3	46138 min	10.7 /90	00 /90	21.3 /90	10.7 /90	21.3 /90	00 /90
R. Yaremchuk	3	46138 min	10.7 /90	00 /90	21.3 /90	10.7 /90	21.3 /90	00 /90
V. Vanat	3	45134 min	00 /90	00 /90	42.7 /90	10.7 /90	00 /90	00 /90
M. Ponomarenko	3	44132 min	00 /90	00 /90	32 /90	00 /90	10.7 /90	10.7 /90
Igor Krasnopir	2	4284 min	00 /90	00 /90	33.2 /90	11.1 /90	00 /90	11.1 /90
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Ukraine — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Ukraine before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Oleg Ocheretko n 8	60.8	0.9 4/1	0.4 2/0
Yehor Nazaryna n 5	69	0.8 2/1	0 0/0
V. Tsygankov n 8	72.1	1.2 5/1	0.5 3/0
E. Sarapiy n 3	90	1 3/0	0.3 1/0
I. Zabarnyi n 8	90.8	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
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Ukraine — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Ukraine before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Oleg Ocheretko n 8	60.8	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
Yehor Nazaryna n 5	69	0 0/0	0 0/0
V. Tsygankov n 8	72.1	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
I. Zabarnyi n 8	90.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
E. Sarapiy n 3	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Georgia

Georgia Goalkeeper

Georgia — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
G. Mamardashvili	4	90360 min	164 /90	20.5 /90	10.3 /90

Georgia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Georgia before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
G. Mamardashvili n 8	90	3.1 6/5

Georgia Defensive

Georgia — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Lasha Dvali	4	90360 min	82 /90	51.3 /90	61.5 /90	133.3 /90	30.8 /90	00 /90
Otar Kakabadze	4	90360 min	92.3 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90	153.8 /90	51.3 /90	00 /90
L. Lochoshvili	4	89355 min	61.5 /90	30.8 /90	10.3 /90	143.5 /90	71.8 /90	00 /90
S. Goglichidze	3	88265 min	41.4 /90	41.4 /90	10.3 /90	175.8 /90	41.4 /90	10.3 /90
Saba Sazonov	1	9090 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	22 /90	11 /90	00 /90
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Georgia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Georgia before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Otar Kakabadze n 8	87.8	0.9 5/1	0.6 4/1	—
K. Kvaratskhelia n 8	87.4	0.6 4/1	1.8 7/5	—
Lasha Dvali n 8	82.5	0.4 2/1	0.1 1/0	—
G. Mamardashvili n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.3 1/1	—
L. Lochoshvili n 8	89.4	1.4 7/2	0.6 3/2	—
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Georgia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Georgia before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Otar Kakabadze n 8	87.8	2.3 6/6
Lasha Dvali n 8	82.5	1.8 5/4
K. Kvaratskhelia n 8	87.4	1.3 6/3
L. Lochoshvili n 8	89.4	1.4 6/4
Giorgi Kochorashvili n 8	77	1.8 7/4
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Georgia Attacking

Georgia — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
K. Kvaratskhelia	4	90360 min	00 /90	00 /90	61.5 /90	20.5 /90	82 /90	102.5 /90
G. Mikautadze	3	73220 min	00 /90	00 /90	62.5 /90	41.6 /90	00 /90	10.4 /90
G. Tsitaishvili	3	66198 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90	20.9 /90	20.9 /90
G. Kvernadze	3	42127 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.7 /90	10.7 /90	21.4 /90	21.4 /90
B. Zivzivadze	2	57113 min	00 /90	00 /90	21.6 /90	00 /90	10.8 /90	10.8 /90
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Georgia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Georgia before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
K. Kvaratskhelia n 8	87.4	1.7 6/4	0.5 4/0
Otar Kakabadze n 8	87.8	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
Lasha Dvali n 8	82.5	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
G. Mamardashvili n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Lochoshvili n 8	89.4	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
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Georgia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Georgia before kick-off, to 5 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
G. Mamardashvili n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Otar Kakabadze n 8	87.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
K. Kvaratskhelia n 8	87.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
Lasha Dvali n 8	82.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Lochoshvili n 8	89.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Ukraine v Georgia — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

UkraineLWDLL

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.6 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

GeorgiaLLDLD

Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 0.2 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 3

Ukraine 1 · 2 draws · Georgia 0 · 1 goals/game

2026-09-28 Georgia 0–0 Ukraine
2024-11-16 Georgia 1–1 Ukraine
2024-10-11 Ukraine 1–0 Georgia

League standing · 2026/27

Ukraine#3 pos4 pts4 pl-3 GD

Georgia#4 pos2 pts4 pl-2 GD

Goals per game

Ukraine scored0.5

Georgia scored0

Ukraine conceded1.25

Georgia conceded0.5

Elo Ratings Before Kick-Off

Ukraine: Elo rating 1375, falling over the last five rated matches.
Georgia: Elo rating 1490, falling over the last five rated matches.

Georgia are rated 115 points higher.

Ratings come from match results only and are taken before kick-off.

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Ukraine v Georgia?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Ukraine v Georgia is Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Ukraine and Georgia?: In their last 3 meetings, Ukraine won 1, Georgia won 0 and there were 2 draws, averaging 1 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Ukraine and Georgia?: Recent form — Ukraine 1W 1D 3L; Georgia 0W 2D 3L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 23:26 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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