Netherlands v Poland result
Team pages: Netherlands · Poland · Head-to-head
The model’s pre-match pick
Netherlands 1–1 Poland — this World Cup - Qualification Europe match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.
The result
Netherlands and Poland drew 1–1 in World Cup - Qualification Europe on Thursday 4 September. Netherlands are unbeaten in their last seven matches in all competitions.
The goals
Netherlands led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Netherlands: Denzel Dumfries (28’, assisted by M. Depay); Poland: Matthew Cash (80’).
How it turned
Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Matthew Cash’s goal on 80 minutes.
The numbers
Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Netherlands out-shot Poland 14 to 6 and created the better chances, 0.72 xG to 0.25 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).
Discipline
Simone Sozza, Italy showed no yellow cards — against 5.1 yellows a game across the last 13 matches refereed (all competitions).
What it changes
Netherlands have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions. Poland have scored in eight consecutive matches in all competitions.
Who stood out
By TACTIX Impact for this match, Matthew Cash (Poland) 7.6, Denzel Dumfries (Netherlands) 7.4 and M. Depay (Netherlands) 4.6 led the match.
What the model said
The model’s free pick, Netherlands or Poland (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.3% of the time in the last 90 days (3366 of 4357).
Next up
Netherlands next host Greece on 13 November 2026.
Poland next travel to Romania on 14 November 2026.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
Next for Netherlands: Netherlands v Greece, Friday 13 November — the preview. Next for Poland: Romania v Poland, Saturday 14 November — the preview.
The numbers
- Result: Netherlands 1–1 Poland · World Cup - Qualification Europe
- Referee: Simone Sozza, Italy
- Model coverage: 182 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 5): Netherlands 4 · draws 1 · Poland 0 · 2.6 goals/game
- Recent form: Netherlands 2W 3D 0L · Poland 2W 0D 3L
Netherlands 1–1 Poland (World Cup - Qualification Europe): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 182 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 8 May 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
The next free picks, by email
The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.
Match statistics & details
| Netherlands | Poland | |
|---|---|---|
| 74% | Possession | 26% |
| 0.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.25 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 4 | Shots off target | 3 |
| 5 | Blocked shots | 1 |
| 9 | Shots inside the box | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Offsides | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 714 | Passes | 245 |
| 94% | Pass accuracy | 76% |
Netherlands player stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Verbruggen | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| D. Dumfries | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| V. van Dijk | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7.3 |
| M. van de Ven | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7.2 |
| R. Gravenberch | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| C. Gakpo | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7.3 |
| J. van Hecke | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| T. Reijnders | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| F. de Jong | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.3 |
| X. Simons | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6.9 |
| M. Depay | 78 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7.7 |
| Q. Timber sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| W. Weghorst sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| J. Kluivert sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| D. Malen sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| S. de Vrij sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 |
Poland player stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ł. Skorupski | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 |
| M. Cash | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 7.5 |
| J. Bednarek | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| J. Kiwior | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7.2 |
| B. Slisz | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6.5 |
| J. Kamiński | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| P. Wiśniewski | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6.6 |
| N. Zalewski | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| S. Szymański | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.5 |
| P. Zieliński | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| R. Lewandowski | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.6 |
| K. Świderski sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| P. Wszołek sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.6 |
| B. Kapustka sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| K. Grosicki sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| T. Kedziora sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.
Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Netherlands v Poland — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2024-06-16 Poland 1–2 Netherlands
- 2022-09-22 Poland 0–2 Netherlands
- 2022-06-11 Netherlands 2–2 Poland
- 2020-11-18 Poland 1–2 Netherlands
- 2020-09-04 Netherlands 1–0 Poland
The full post-match picture
Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.
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Frequently asked questions
- What was the model’s pick for Netherlands v Poland?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Netherlands v Poland was Home or Away.
- What is the head-to-head record between Netherlands and Poland?
- In their last 5 meetings, Netherlands won 4, Poland won 0 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.6 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Netherlands and Poland?
- Recent form — Netherlands 2W 3D 0L; Poland 2W 0D 3L.
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