Spain v Belgium result

Full-time · Spain 2–1 Belgium

World Cup · · SoFi Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Spain · Belgium

The model’s pre-match pick

Spain 2–1 Belgium — Spain won this World Cup match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick
Home or Draw
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 75.3% of 1490 landed (95% range 73–77.4%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Spain beat Belgium 2–1 at SoFi Stadium in the World Cup on Friday 10 July. Spain are unbeaten in at least their last 15 matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Spain: Fabián Ruiz (30’) and Mikel Merino (88’); Belgium: Charles De Ketelaere (41’, assisted by Timothy Castagne).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Mikel Merino’s goal on 88 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Spain 2.08, Belgium 0.37, from 17 shots to 5 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Michael Oliver, England showed four yellow cards — against 3.9 yellows a game across the last 11 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Spain: Pau Cubarsí Paredes (43’) and Aymeric Laporte (90+3’); Belgium: Kevin De Bruyne (85’) and Axel Witsel (90+5’).

What it changes

Spain have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Fabián Ruiz (Spain) 5.3, Charles De Ketelaere (Belgium) 4.9 and Jérémy Doku (Belgium) 4.8 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Spain or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 75.3% of the time in the last 90 days (1122 of 1490).

Next up

Spain next travel to Czechia on 12 November 2026.

Belgium next travel to Türkiye on 12 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Spain: Czechia v Spain, Thursday 12 November — the preview. Next for Belgium: Türkiye v Belgium, Thursday 12 November — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Spain 2–1 Belgium · World Cup
  • Venue: SoFi Stadium · Los Angeles
  • Referee: Michael Oliver, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: Spain 4W 1D 0L · Belgium 3W 2D 0L

Spain 2–1 Belgium (World Cup): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.63 / 2.63
Goals
against 0.25 / 0.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
7.86 / 5.25
Corners
against 1.29 / 3.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
6 / 6.25
Shots on target
against 1.14 / 2.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
0.71 / 1.25
Cards
against 2.57 / 1.88 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 7 July 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 7 July 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameSpain for / againstLineBelgium for / against
Goals scored
1.63 for · 0.25 against n 8
2.75our book
2.63 for · 0.75 against n 8
Corners won
7.86 for · 1.29 against n 7
9.5standard
5.25 for · 3.13 against n 8
Shots
18.71 for · 5.14 against n 7
19.5standard
18.38 for · 9.38 against n 8
Shots on target
6 for · 1.14 against n 7
8.5standard
6.25 for · 2.5 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.57 for · 8.57 against n 7
21.5standard
12.75 for · 11.63 against n 8
Cards shown
0.71 for · 2.57 against n 7
3.5standard
1.25 for · 1.88 against n 8

Referee: Michael Oliver, England.

Spain
Spain — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Mikel Merino n 827.9
2.45/1
2.44/2
—
Gavi n 865
2.37/4
1.46/2
—
Cristhian Mosquera n 859.8
2.17/2
1.14/2
—
Lamine Yamal n 867.4
1.75/2
1.35/2
—
Alex Baena n 866.5
1.55/2
15/1
—
Spain — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Lamine Yamal n 867.4
3.57/6
2.26/5
Ferran Torres n 841.3
3.37/5
1.44/1
Mikel Oyarzabal n 865.8
3.16/4
1.54/2
Mikel Merino n 827.9
2.44/1
1.63/1
Fabián Ruiz n 843.8
2.33/2
0.52/0
Spain — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Lamine Yamal n 867.4
0.74/0
0.31/1
Mikel Oyarzabal n 865.8
0.72/2
0.32/0
Ferran Torres n 841.3
0.31/0
0.52/0
Mikel Merino n 827.9
0.82/0
00/0
Borja Iglesias n 846.6
0.73/0
00/0
Spain — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Marcos Llorente n 885.3
3.38/6
Pedro Porro n 887.9
3.28/5
Gavi n 865
3.17/6
Fabián Ruiz n 843.8
2.84/4
Rodri n 886.3
2.77/6
Spain — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
David Raya n 893.8
26/4
Joan García n 887.9
1.94/3
Unai Simón n 890
1.54/1
Belgium
Belgium — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
N. Raskin n 853
2.15/3
0.42/0
—
T. Meunier n 869.8
1.96/2
0.21/0
—
Diego Moreira n 856.8
1.86/2
0.62/1
—
A. Saelemaekers n 859.1
1.55/2
2.36/4
—
K. De Winter n 858.1
1.56/1
0.42/0
—
Belgium — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
D. Lukebakio n 836.1
3.16/4
0.93/0
K. De Bruyne n 869.9
2.97/5
1.14/2
M. Fernandez-Pardo n 845
1.86/1
0.31/0
Mika Godts n 891.8
1.77/5
16/2
R. Lukaku n 832.8
1.75/0
1.44/0
Belgium — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
R. Lukaku n 832.8
1.44/0
0.72/0
Mika Godts n 891.8
0.43/0
0.54/0
H. Vanaken n 848
0.21/0
0.73/0
Leandro Trossard n 887
0.42/1
0.43/0
C. De Ketelaere n 864
0.52/1
0.21/0
Belgium — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
T. Castagne n 880.1
3.17/6
A. Saelemaekers n 859.1
2.77/4
A. Onana n 835
2.66/2
N. Raskin n 853
2.56/3
Diego Moreira n 856.8
2.45/3
Belgium — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 7 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Sels n 890
3.88/6
Thibaut Courtois n 894.3
1.43/2

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
SpainBelgium
68%Possession32%
2.08Expected goals (xG)0.37
17Shots5
8Shots on target2
4Shots off target1
5Blocked shots2
10Shots inside the box4
5Corners1
3Offsides1
13Fouls18
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
1Saves6
665Passes314
90%Pass accuracy78%

Spain player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Unai Simón9000000006.5
Pedro Porro9000101206.9
Pau Cubarsí Paredes90001121Y7.3
Aymeric Laporte90000001Y6.6
Marc Cucurella9000111106.3
Rodri9000002107.6
Lamine Yamal9000420107.3
Dani Olmo8600211007.3
Mikel Oyarzabal7900112206.9
Fabián Ruiz5510111107.3
Alex Baena5500001106.9
Pedri sub3500001007
Ferran Torres sub3500000006.5
Mikel Merino sub1210111007.2
Nico Williams sub1100000006.3

Belgium player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
T. Castagne9001001206.6
N. Ngoy9000000207.2
B. Mechele9000000206.9
N. Raskin9000000106.7
J. Doku9000001106.7
C. De Ketelaere9010110007.5
K. De Bruyne86001101Y6.6
Thibaut Courtois7100000007.9
M. De Cuyper6100100006.3
H. Vanaken6000000006.3
Leandro Trossard6000000006.3
A. Witsel sub30000000Y6.5
R. Lukaku sub3000000006.2
J. Seys sub2900000106.5
S. Lammens sub1900000006.2
A. Saelemaekers sub1200000006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Spain v Belgium — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
SpainDWWWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 1.8 scored / 0 conceded per game
BelgiumDDWWW
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 2.6 scored / 1 conceded per game
League standing · 2026/27
Spain#1 pos7 pts3 pl+5 GD
Belgium#1 pos5 pts3 pl+4 GD
Goals per game
Spain scored1.67
Belgium scored2
Spain conceded0
Belgium conceded0.67

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Spain v Belgium?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Spain v Belgium was Home or Draw.
What is the recent form of Spain and Belgium?
Recent form — Spain 4W 1D 0L; Belgium 3W 2D 0L.

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