Melbourne Victory v Wellington Phoenix prediction

A-League · Tue, 29 Dec 2026 08:00 GMT · AAMI Park

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:25 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Melbourne Victory · Wellington Phoenix · Head-to-head

TACTIX’s free model pick for Melbourne Victory v Wellington Phoenix, A-League on Tue, 29 Dec 2026 08:00 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Melbourne Victory host Wellington Phoenix in the A-League on Tuesday 29 December (kick-off 08:00 UK).

The key numbers

Melbourne Victory are winless in their last five matches in all competitions. Wellington Phoenix are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Eight of Melbourne Victory’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in 10 of Melbourne Victory’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). At home, Melbourne Victory have three wins, three draws and three defeats in their last 9 home matches in all competitions — 1.33 points per game, scoring 1.78 and conceding 1.11.

Eight of Wellington Phoenix’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in six of Wellington Phoenix’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). Away from home, Wellington Phoenix have three wins, three draws and two defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.50 points per game, scoring 1.13 and conceding 1.25.

Wellington Phoenix have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches in all competitions. Melbourne Victory (ninth) and Wellington Phoenix (first) are eight points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Wellington Phoenix the stronger side, 214 rating points above Melbourne Victory (Wellington Phoenix 1672, Melbourne Victory 1457, after at least 247 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 18 October 2026, finished Wellington Phoenix 2–1 Melbourne Victory.

Team news

Predicted Melbourne Victory XI (4-2-3-1): J. Duncan, P. Ziereis, J. Davidson, H. Shillington, F. Lino, D. Genreau, J. Valadon, K. Jelacic, G. May, Clarismario, C. Nduka — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Jordi Valadon (4.7 per match over six appearances, two goals) and Denis Genreau (3.5 per match over seven appearances, two assists) have been Melbourne Victory’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Melbourne Victory (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Jordi Valadon averages 0.4 key passes per 90 over 495 minutes, with a key pass in one of the last six appearances. Denis Genreau averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 504 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last seven appearances.

Predicted Wellington Phoenix XI (4-4-2): H. Gray, B. Tuiloma, L. Kelly-Heald, M. Sheridan, J. McGarry, K. Nagasawa, A. Rufer, M. Anderson, B. Duke, C. Piper, R. Durán — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Kazuki Nagasawa (6.3 per match over four appearances, four assists) and Corban Piper (5.3 per match over four appearances, three goals) have been Wellington Phoenix’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Wellington Phoenix (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Kazuki Nagasawa averages 2.5 key passes per 90 over 360 minutes. Corban Piper averages 1.8 shots per 90 over 349 minutes.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Tue, 29 Dec 2026 08:00 GMT · A-League · AAMI Park
Head-to-head (last 6): Melbourne Victory 4 · draws 0 · Wellington Phoenix 2 · 3.5 goals/game
Recent form: Melbourne Victory 0W 2D 3L · Wellington Phoenix 3W 1D 1L

Melbourne Victory v Wellington Phoenix (A-League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 1.25

Goals

against 1.25 / 1 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

5.5 / 5.63

Corners

against 4.38 / 5.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

3.5 / 3.38

Shots on target

against 4 / 4.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.13 / 1.13

Cards

against 1.38 / 1.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 7 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 7 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Melbourne Victory for / against	Line	Wellington Phoenix for / against
Goals scored	1 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.25 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.5 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.63 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	13.13 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11.25 for · 13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3.5 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.38 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	8.88 for · 9.88 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.75 for · 10.13 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.13 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.13 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5

Melbourne Victory

Melbourne Victory Goalkeeper

Melbourne Victory — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Jack Duncan	6	90540 min	172.8 /90	61 /90	00 /90
Jack Warshawsky	1	9090 min	33 /90	22 /90	00 /90

Melbourne Victory — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Melbourne Victory before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Jack Duncan n 8	90	2.4 5/3
Jack Warshawsky n 8	90	2 4/3

Melbourne Victory Defensive

Melbourne Victory — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
P. Ziereis	6	83498 min	71.3 /90	50.9 /90	30.5 /90	254.5 /90	30.5 /90	20.4 /90
Jason Davidson	5	90450 min	71.4 /90	20.4 /90	20.4 /90	193.8 /90	40.8 /90	10.2 /90
H. Shillington	5	73365 min	51.2 /90	51.2 /90	20.5 /90	153.7 /90	10.2 /90	00 /90
F. Lino	5	72360 min	61.5 /90	30.8 /90	00 /90	133.3 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90
J. Inserra	4	81325 min	92.5 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90	133.6 /90	30.8 /90	10.3 /90
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Melbourne Victory — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Melbourne Victory before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Denis Genreau n 8	74.1	1.1 5/2	2 6/4	—
Clarismario n 8	55.6	1.4 5/2	1.2 4/2	—
Jack Duncan n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
P. Ziereis n 6	83	0.5 3/0	0.7 3/1	—
Jordi Valadon n 8	76.3	0.6 4/0	0.4 2/1	—
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Melbourne Victory — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Melbourne Victory before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Denis Genreau n 8	74.1	1.8 7/4
Clarismario n 8	55.6	1.6 4/3
P. Ziereis n 6	83	1.3 4/3
Jordi Valadon n 8	76.3	2.7 6/6
Charles Nduka n 8	80.6	0.1 1/0
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Melbourne Victory Attacking

Melbourne Victory — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Clarismario	7	53374 min	20.5 /90	00 /90	102.4 /90	41 /90	30.7 /90	10.2 /90
Charles Nduka	6	79471 min	10.2 /90	20.4 /90	81.5 /90	20.4 /90	61.1 /90	30.6 /90
M. Ghossaini	4	37147 min	00 /90	00 /90	53.1 /90	10.6 /90	42.4 /90	31.8 /90
Harrison Sawyer	3	46138 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.7 /90	00 /90	10.7 /90	00 /90
Michael Ghossaini	3	40120 min	00 /90	00 /90	32.3 /90	10.8 /90	21.5 /90	10.8 /90
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Melbourne Victory — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Melbourne Victory before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Denis Genreau n 8	74.1	1.4 6/3	0.2 1/0
Clarismario n 8	55.6	2 4/2	0.8 3/1
Jack Duncan n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
P. Ziereis n 6	83	0 0/0	0 0/0
Jordi Valadon n 8	76.3	0.6 2/1	0.3 2/0
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Melbourne Victory — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Melbourne Victory before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Denis Genreau n 8	74.1	0 0/0	0.3 1/1
Clarismario n 8	55.6	0.4 2/0	0 0/0
Jack Duncan n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
P. Ziereis n 6	83	0 0/0	0 0/0
Jordi Valadon n 8	76.3	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
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Wellington Phoenix

Wellington Phoenix Goalkeeper

Wellington Phoenix — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
H. Gray	4	90360 min	102.5 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90

Wellington Phoenix — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Wellington Phoenix before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
H. Gray n 4	90	2.5 3/2

Wellington Phoenix Defensive

Wellington Phoenix — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Bill Tuiloma	4	90360 min	41 /90	30.8 /90	41 /90	143.5 /90	41 /90	00 /90
Lukas Kelly-Heald	4	90360 min	51.3 /90	71.8 /90	30.8 /90	102.5 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90
Matthew Sheridan	4	90360 min	20.5 /90	61.5 /90	30.8 /90	123 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90
J. McGarry	4	83332 min	30.8 /90	61.6 /90	20.5 /90	113 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90
W. Scott	1	2828 min	13.2 /90	13.2 /90	00 /90	412.9 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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Wellington Phoenix — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Wellington Phoenix before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Kazuki Nagasawa n 8	83.4	1.3 7/2	2 7/5	—
Bill Tuiloma n 8	90	1 5/2	0.5 3/1	—
M. Anderson n 4	90	0.8 3/0	0 0/0	—
Lukas Kelly-Heald n 8	74.1	0.5 3/0	0.3 2/0	—
Matthew Sheridan n 8	67.8	0.3 1/1	0.7 3/1	—
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Wellington Phoenix — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Wellington Phoenix before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
M. Anderson n 4	90	3.2 4/4
Lukas Kelly-Heald n 8	74.1	2 3/3
Kazuki Nagasawa n 8	83.4	1.6 7/3
Bill Tuiloma n 8	90	1.4 6/3
Matthew Sheridan n 8	67.8	1.2 5/2
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Wellington Phoenix Attacking

Wellington Phoenix — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Corban Piper	4	87349 min	30.8 /90	00 /90	71.8 /90	41 /90	30.8 /90	10.3 /90
R. Durán	4	57229 min	10.4 /90	00 /90	52 /90	31.2 /90	10.4 /90	10.4 /90
Nathan Walker	2	4794 min	11 /90	11 /90	21.9 /90	21.9 /90	21.9 /90	11 /90
R. Bidois	2	1937 min	00 /90	00 /90	12.4 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
Kazuki Nagasawa	4	90360 min	00 /90	41 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90	102.5 /90	20.5 /90
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Wellington Phoenix — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Wellington Phoenix before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Bill Tuiloma n 8	90	0.5 3/1	0.1 1/0
M. Anderson n 4	90	0.5 2/0	0.3 1/0
Kazuki Nagasawa n 8	83.4	0.5 3/1	0.1 1/0
Lukas Kelly-Heald n 8	74.1	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
Matthew Sheridan n 8	67.8	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
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Wellington Phoenix — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Wellington Phoenix before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Kazuki Nagasawa n 8	83.4	0.1 1/0	0.5 2/1
Matthew Sheridan n 8	67.8	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
Bill Tuiloma n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Anderson n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
H. Gray n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Melbourne Victory v Wellington Phoenix — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Melbourne VictoryLDLDL

Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 0.8 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Wellington PhoenixLWWWD

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.4 scored / 1 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Melbourne Victory 4 · 0 draws · Wellington Phoenix 2 · 3.5 goals/game

2026-10-18 Wellington Phoenix 2–1 Melbourne Victory
2026-04-05 Melbourne Victory 0–1 Wellington Phoenix
2026-02-06 Wellington Phoenix 2–3 Melbourne Victory
2025-12-29 Melbourne Victory 5–1 Wellington Phoenix
2025-04-12 Wellington Phoenix 2–3 Melbourne Victory
2025-02-14 Melbourne Victory 1–0 Wellington Phoenix

League standing · 2026/27

Melbourne Victory#9 pos2 pts3 pl-1 GD

Wellington Phoenix#1 pos10 pts4 pl+6 GD

Goals per game

Melbourne Victory scored1

Wellington Phoenix scored1.75

Melbourne Victory conceded1.33

Wellington Phoenix conceded0.25

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the head-to-head record between Melbourne Victory and Wellington Phoenix?: In their last 6 meetings, Melbourne Victory won 4, Wellington Phoenix won 2 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Melbourne Victory and Wellington Phoenix?: Recent form — Melbourne Victory 0W 2D 3L; Wellington Phoenix 3W 1D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:25 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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