30 goals conceded in 28 Premier League matches. For a title challenger, that number raises eyebrows. But goals-against is one of the noisier statistics in football — the more useful question is: what chances are Arsenal actually giving away?
The Chance Quality Is Genuinely Good
Arsenal's concede prediction score sits at 1.02 goals per match — third best in the league, behind only City (0.87) and Liverpool (1.10). The actual rate of 1.07 tells you they have been marginally unlucky with finishing against them, but not dramatically so.
Of Arsenal's 30 conceded goals, our data classifies nine as coming from situations where the opponent had less than a 15% chance of scoring. Remove those and Arsenal's underlying defensive record looks significantly cleaner than the raw number implies.
If you are trying to forecast whether Arsenal's defence will hold up in the run-in, the underlying data says: yes, probably.
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