At Anfield, Liverpool are dominant — our model gives them a 74% win probability in a typical home match this season. Away from home, that drops to 48%. For a team with Liverpool's squad quality, that gap is unusually large.
The Possession Data Tells the Story
At home, Liverpool average 64% possession. Away, that drops to 51%. More importantly, away from Anfield they concede significantly more transitions before resetting their shape. Their PPDA drops from 5.4 at home to 7.8 on the road — they press far less aggressively without their own crowd.
If Liverpool are to mount a title challenge, they need to find their away form in the final ten matches. The underlying data — not the table — is the warning sign.
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