Analysis as published on 7 February 2026 — the bracket and probabilities below reflect that date.
Eight teams remain in the Champions League. Our model has run each quarter-final tie through its full two-leg simulation 10,000 times. Here is what we found.
The Clear Favourites
Real Madrid (73% to advance) and Manchester City (68%) are the model's two standout picks. Both have the combination of squad depth, European experience and underlying data quality that the model consistently rewards in knockout football.
The Upset Most Likely to Happen
Porto against AC Milan is the tie our model is most uncertain about. Milan are marginal favourites at 54%, but Porto's away form in Europe this season has been exceptional. If there is a quarter-final upset, this is the one to watch.
The Tie the Model Cannot Call
Barcelona versus PSG: 51% Barcelona, 49% PSG. Form, squad quality, head-to-head, home advantage — all of it points to a genuinely unforeseeable tie. Watch it purely for entertainment value.
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