Our Ligue 1 predicted table 2026/27 gives Paris Saint-Germain a 83.4% chance of the title, from 10,000 simulations of the remaining matches run on 4 November 2026, after 81 of 306 matches. With three Champions League places on this page’s zones, the line between third and fourth matters as much as the title one.
Projection generated on 4 November 2026, after 81 of 306 matches of the 2026/27 Ligue 1 season (225 fixtures still to play). Current points are shown next to each club for contrast.
TACTIX Ligue 1 projected table, 2026/27, as of 4 November 2026: the model makes Paris Saint-Germain title favourite at 83.4% across 10,000 simulated seasons, after 81 of 306 matches, over a 18-club table. A projection, not a prediction of the result.
Who Does the Model Make Favourite in the Ligue 1 2026/27?
As of 4 November 2026, the TACTIX model makes Paris Saint-Germain favourites to finish top at 83.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons after 81 of 306 matches. Lyon are next on 4.9%; the table gives every club's projected points and top-three and relegation chances.
Ligue 1 Predicted Table 2026/27
| # | Club | Pts now | Proj pts | Title | Top 3 | Rel | Likely finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 20 | 72.4 | 83.4% | 97.6% | <0.1% | 1st (1st–3rd) |
| 2 | Lyon | 17 | 59.2 | 4.9% | 47.2% | <0.1% | 4th (2nd–9th) |
| 3 | Lens | 13 | 58.4 | 4.5% | 43.6% | <0.1% | 4th (2nd–9th) |
| 4 | Lille | 18 | 57.2 | 2.6% | 32.7% | <0.1% | 5th (2nd–10th) |
| 5 | Rennes | 16 | 54.7 | 1.5% | 20.7% | <0.1% | 6th (2nd–12th) |
| 6 | Paris FC | 17 | 54.3 | 1.2% | 18.8% | <0.1% | 6th (2nd–11th) |
| 7 | Marseille | 15 | 53.7 | 1.1% | 17.8% | <0.1% | 6th (2nd–12th) |
| 8 | Monaco | 15 | 52.2 | 0.5% | 12.0% | 0.2% | 7th (2nd–12th) |
| 9 | Lorient | 12 | 48.8 | 0.1% | 4.8% | 0.6% | 9th (4th–14th) |
| 10 | Strasbourg | 10 | 46.4 | 0.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 10th (5th–14th) |
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 12 | 44.7 | <0.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 11th (5th–15th) |
| 12 | Toulouse | 10 | 43.7 | <0.1% | 0.9% | 3.9% | 11th (6th–15th) |
| 13 | Nice | 14 | 41.5 | <0.1% | 0.3% | 7.4% | 12th (7th–16th) |
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | 39.8 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 13.3% | 13th (8th–17th) |
| 15 | Angers | 8 | 33.1 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 48.7% | 15th (11th–18th) |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 30.5 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 66.6% | 16th (13th–18th) |
| 17 | Le Havre | 2 | 28.7 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 74.6% | 17th (13th–18th) |
| 18 | Estac Troyes | 8 | 28.3 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 79.9% | 17th (14th–18th) |
Biggest Movers vs the Current Table
The model has Lens finishing 3rd, 6 places above their current 9th, while Nice is projected to slip from 8th today to 13th.
Projection, Not Prophecy
In 1,661 of the 10,000 simulated seasons — 16.6% of them — somebody other than Paris Saint-Germain finished top. A 83.4% title probability measures how open the race is — it is not a verdict. These are the same calibrated probabilities TACTIX grades in public every night on the live scoreboard, losers included — so you can check whether numbers like these deserve your trust before you lean on them.
How This Projection Works
- Each of the 225 remaining Ligue 1 fixtures is priced as a full scoreline distribution by TACTIX's Dixon-Coles engine — team attack and defence strengths fitted on the trailing 12 months of matches, plus a per-league low-score correction.
- For 9 fixtures inside the priced window (roughly the next seven days), the simulation re-uses the calibrated 1X2 probabilities already published on TACTIX's prediction pages, so this page and the fixture pages never disagree.
- The season is then played out 10,000 times. Ties are broken by points, then goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; head-to-head tie-break rules (used in some leagues) are approximated by goal difference.
- Zones on this page: top three (Champions League places); relegation = bottom 3, counting the relegation play-off place.
- The current table is derived from fixture results; any points deductions are not reflected.
- Scope: TACTIX projects the six major domestic leagues. The Champions League and Europa League are excluded — team strengths are fitted per league and do not transfer honestly across competitions.
- Read more: how the TACTIX models work · methodology.
Ligue 1 Predicted Table — FAQs
Who is most likely to win the 2026/27 Ligue 1 title, according to the model?
The model's favourite is Paris Saint-Germain, with a 83.4% title probability from 10,000 season simulations as of 4 November 2026. That is a probability, not a promise — the projected table on this page shows every club's chances.
How is the Ligue 1 predicted table calculated?
TACTIX simulates every remaining Ligue 1 fixture 10,000 times with its Dixon-Coles scoreline model, using team strengths fitted on the last 12 months of matches. Ties are broken by points, goal difference then goals scored. Only the six major domestic leagues are projected — the Champions League and Europa League are excluded because team strengths do not transfer across competitions.
How often is this page updated?
Weekly. TACTIX re-runs the full 10,000-simulation projection every Wednesday morning, and the dateline under the title shows the exact run date. Probabilities move as results arrive — that is the projection working, not failing.
Where can I check whether these title and relegation probabilities are reliable?
Every probability TACTIX publishes is graded against real results on the public scoreboard, losers included. The projection on this page comes from the same calibrated model.
More From TACTIX
- Ligue 1 predictions for every fixture
- Live model scoreboard — accuracy by league & market
- How accurate is TACTIX? The honest, graded answer
How we model this: TACTIX grades every fixture by model confidence and reports its accuracy in the open. See the live track record and how the model works.
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This post is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically. How it works →
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