Issue #1 · week 2026-W32 · simulations updated 7 August 2026 · 10,000 season simulations per league
The TACTIX Simulation Report is the weekly, numbered record of what our season simulations say — and how they moved. Every number below is the same number the live Supercomputer hub shows; the deltas compare this run with the previous one.
Three Lines You Can Quote
- Arsenal won the Premier League title in 60.6% of 10,000 simulations of the 2026/27 season. (TACTIX Simulation Report #1)
- The gap at the top: Arsenal 60.6% vs Manchester City 37.4% — a 23.2-point difference in title likelihood. (TACTIX Simulation Report #1)
- 3 of 20 Premier League clubs took the title in at least 1% of simulations. (TACTIX Simulation Report #1)
Premier League 2026/27 — The Full Movement Table
| # | Club | Title | Δ | Top 4 | Relegation | Avg pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 60.6% | · | 99.7% | 0% | 83.1 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 37.4% | · | 99.0% | 0% | 80 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 1.3% | · | 60.8% | <0.1% | 64.3 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 0.3% | · | 30.0% | 0.5% | 58.3 |
| 5 | Aston Villa | 0.2% | · | 21.1% | 1.0% | 56.3 |
| 6 | Chelsea | <0.1% | · | 19.5% | 1.3% | 55.8 |
| 7 | Brighton | <0.1% | · | 18.0% | 1.5% | 55.4 |
| 8 | Bournemouth | <0.1% | · | 15.1% | 2.0% | 54.2 |
| 9 | Brentford | <0.1% | · | 12.7% | 2.2% | 53.6 |
| 10 | Newcastle | 0% | · | 5.8% | 5.6% | 50.1 |
| 11 | Nottingham Forest | 0% | · | 4.2% | 7.7% | 48.9 |
| 12 | Everton | 0% | · | 4.1% | 7.5% | 48.9 |
| 13 | Fulham | 0% | · | 3.4% | 8.5% | 48.1 |
| 14 | Leeds | <0.1% | · | 2.4% | 13.0% | 46.5 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 0% | · | 1.9% | 12.5% | 46.4 |
| 16 | Tottenham | <0.1% | · | 1.4% | 17.2% | 45 |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 0% | · | 0.9% | 22.7% | 43.4 |
| 18 | Hull City | 0% | · | <0.1% | 65.1% | 35.4 |
| 19 | Ipswich | 0% | · | <0.1% | 66.0% | 35.3 |
| 20 | Coventry | 0% | · | <0.1% | 65.8% | 35.3 |
Δ column starts next issue — this is the first run pair of the season for this report.
Club by Club
One line per club, for the beat writer who covers exactly one of them:
- Arsenal (1/20 by simulation) — title 60.6%, top four 99.7%, averaging 83.1 pts.
- Manchester City (2/20 by simulation) — title 37.4%, top four 99.0%, averaging 80 pts.
- Manchester United (3/20 by simulation) — title 1.3%, top four 60.8%, averaging 64.3 pts.
- Liverpool (4/20 by simulation) — top four 30.0%, relegation 0.5%, averaging 58.3 pts.
- Aston Villa (5/20 by simulation) — top four 21.1%, relegation 1.0%, averaging 56.3 pts.
- Chelsea (6/20 by simulation) — top four 19.5%, relegation 1.3%, averaging 55.8 pts.
- Brighton (7/20 by simulation) — top four 18.0%, relegation 1.5%, averaging 55.4 pts.
- Bournemouth (8/20 by simulation) — top four 15.1%, relegation 2.0%, averaging 54.2 pts.
- Brentford (9/20 by simulation) — top four 12.7%, relegation 2.2%, averaging 53.6 pts.
- Newcastle (10/20 by simulation) — relegation 5.6%, top-half push 5.8%, averaging 50.1 pts.
- Nottingham Forest (11/20 by simulation) — relegation 7.7%, top-half push 4.2%, averaging 48.9 pts.
- Everton (12/20 by simulation) — relegation 7.5%, top-half push 4.1%, averaging 48.9 pts.
- Fulham (13/20 by simulation) — relegation 8.5%, top-half push 3.4%, averaging 48.1 pts.
- Leeds (14/20 by simulation) — relegation 13.0%, top-half push 2.4%, averaging 46.5 pts.
- Sunderland (15/20 by simulation) — relegation 12.5%, top-half push 1.9%, averaging 46.4 pts.
- Tottenham (16/20 by simulation) — relegation 17.2%, top-half push 1.4%, averaging 45 pts.
- Crystal Palace (17/20 by simulation) — relegation 22.7%, top-half push 0.9%, averaging 43.4 pts.
- Hull City (18/20 by simulation) — relegation 65.1%, top-half push <0.1%, averaging 35.4 pts.
- Ipswich (19/20 by simulation) — relegation 66.0%, top-half push <0.1%, averaging 35.3 pts.
- Coventry (20/20 by simulation) — relegation 65.8%, top-half push <0.1%, averaging 35.3 pts.
Method, in One Paragraph
Each covered league is simulated thousands of times from the current table and remaining fixtures, using the same calibrated match model that prices every prediction on the site. Probabilities are model estimates — odds to weigh, not promises. The live, always-current version of every table on this page is at tactix.football/supercomputer; embeddable versions are free at /widgets with the credit intact. Cite this issue as “TACTIX Simulation Report #1”.
This post is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically. How it works →
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